Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 141752

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
152 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.


...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

A strong cold front has moved into the NW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, passing through south central Louisiana to the Mexico
coast along 98W, from 23N to 24N. Gale-force winds are present in
the Gulf of Mexico to the NW of the cold front. The gale-force
winds will last for the next 24 hours or so. Expect sea heights
to range from 8 feet to 13 feet during the next 24 hours, to the
west of the cold front. A second and reinforcing cold front is
moving through the eastern sections of Texas. The winds and seas
will diminish gradually through late Saturday and overnight as
the front shifts eastward more, and high pressure builds into the
western Gulf of Mexico. Please read the High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The Gulf of Mexico cold front will approach the SE U.S.A. on
Sunday. Increasing southerly wind flow will be present ahead of
the front in the Bahamas and offshore waters to the east of
Florida. The front will reach the Atlantic Ocean waters on Sunday
night, with gale force winds developing to the north of 26N
from 74W westward. The front will move eastward. The wind speeds
will diminish to less than gale-force through early on Monday.
Please read the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W, to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to
04N23W 02N30W 02N38W, and 01N46W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 02N to 06N from
44W westward to land. isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere from 08N southward.



The cold front, with the gale-force winds, is in the NW corner of
the area. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong rainshowers
are within 30 nm to 45 nm on either side of 30N90W 29N91W 28N93W
27N94W 25N95W.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the area, from 22N98W, to
a 1004 mb low pressure center that is near 21N97W, to 16.5N92W in
the SE part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, near
the border with Guatemala.

Strong to minimal gale-force winds are ongoing in the NW Gulf,
following the current late season cold front. Fresh to strong
southerly wind flow is ahead of the front to 84W. Gale force
northerly winds will extend off Tampico and Veracruz later today,
as the front reaches from SE Louisiana to the western Bay of
Campeche. The front will sweep across the southeast Gulf by late
Sun night. The winds and seas will diminish from west to east
through Monday, as high pressure builds across the basin in the
wake of the front through Wednesday morning.


Rainshowers are possible, in areas of scattered-to-broken low
level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals,
that are listed for the period that ended at 14/1200 UTC,
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.98 in Trinidad, 0.12 in
Guadeloupe, 0.09 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 0.02 in
San Juan in Puerto Rico.

Fresh trade winds will increase to fresh to strong across the
central Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras into Sunday night,
as strong high pres prevails across the Western Atlantic Ocean.
The ridge will shift eastward, ahead of a cold front that will be
moving into the NW Caribbean Sea early on Monday morning. The
front will be reaching from central Cuba to Belize on Tuesday
morning, followed by strong northerly winds. This late season
front will weaken through late Tuesday, allowing winds and seas
to diminish in the NW Caribbean Sea. NE swell, in excess of 8
feet, will persist to the east of the Leeward Islands and
Windward Islands through Tuesday.


A stationary front passes through 32N43W, to 28N56W, to 26N60W and
26N63W. Rainshowers are possible, within 120 nm to 180 nm to the
NW of the line that passes through 32N35W 28N50W 25N58W 23N67W.

An upper level trough extends from a 24N27W cyclonic circulation
center, to 21N43W, 17N54W, and 19N60W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 04N
northward, from the stationary front eastward. A 1028 mb high
pressure center is near 28N35W. A surface ridge extends from a
1030 mb high pressure center that is near 34N57W, across Bermuda,
to 32N74W, to the Florida Panhandle.

High pressure, that is to the NE of the area, is supporting
pulses of fresh to strong trade winds off Hispaniola today into
Sunday night. SE to S winds will increase to fresh to strong W of
75W on Sunday afternoon, ahead of a cold front that is moving off
the NE Florida coast on Sunday evening. The wind speeds are
forecast to increase to strong to near gale force ahead of the
front through Monday. The front will reach from 30N75W to western
Cuba on Monday morning. The wind speeds will diminish on Monday
night through Tuesday morning, as the front reaches from 30N68W
to the central Bahamas.

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