Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 171701

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N10W
to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 02N30W to 03N31W to
03S42W. Scattered moderate convection within 60 nm either side of
monsoon trough and ITCZ axes east of 25W and west of 39W.



A 1023-mb high pressure, centered over the north-central Gulf
near 28.5N 88W, continues to produce generally fair weather with
mostly clear skies across the basin. Moderate to fresh SE to S
return flow is occurring over the west-central and northwestern
Gulf between the 1023-mb high and lower pressure developing over
the southern Plains and northern Mexico, with seas building to 7
ft. Over the southeastern Gulf, seas remain 4 to 6 ft due to
lingering NW swell following yesterday`s frontal passage.
Visibility is unrestricted across the Gulf.

The 1023-mb high will shift eastward and weaken through mid week
ahead of the next cold front that will move into the northern
Gulf on Thursday. The front should stall from southwestern
Florida to south Texas Fri, before lifting north as a warm front
over Texas on Saturday. Another late-season cold front will be
approaching the northwestern Gulf on Sunday.


A dissipating stationary front and broad surface trough extend
across the northwestern Caribbean from central Cuba southwestward
to north-eastern Honduras. Scattered light showers were occuring
adjacent to and north of the northern coast of Honduras for 120
nm. Fresh to strong north to northeasterly winds continue west of
the front, especially in the Gulf of Honduras where seas are near
8 ft. Brisk easterly trade winds of 20-25 kt continue just off the
coasts of Colombia and Venezuela.

Farther east, a broad mid- to upper-level trough moving eastward
across the Lesser Antilles and into the tropical Atlantic has
suppressed shower activity in its wake over the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea. A surface trough west of the Lesser
Antilles is producing enhanced low cloudiness and perhaps a few
light showers. NE to E swell to 8 ft continue in the tropical
Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands.

The front is expected to dissipate by tonight. The trough over
the eastern Caribbean will move westward through Hispaniola and
dissipate through mid week. A building ridge north of the region
will cause the area of winds and seas off Colombia and Venezuela
to expand in coverage across the south-central Caribbean and into
the southwestern Caribbean by late Wednesday through late Friday.
Strong winds are expected to continue off the coast of Colombia
through late Sat.


A cold front reaches from 31N68W to the southeastern Bahamas. Scattered
showers and a isolated thunderstorms have been decreasing in both
coverage and intensity due to a strong upper- level trough lifting
out to the north of the area. Moderate W to SW winds are noted north
of 29N and within 120 nm either side of the front. Seas are 8 to 11
ft north of 30N west of 68W. Elsewhere over open waters, seas are
generally 5 to 7 ft.

The fronts will merge later today and continue eastward. The frontal
system will slow as it reaches from Bermuda to eastern Cuba late
today. The front should stall and weaken from 28N65W to central
Cuba by late Wed, then dissipate on Thu as it lifts northward.
Another cold front will move off the Florida east coast late Thu
and extend from Bermuda to south Florida by late Fri, before
stalling from 25N65W to the Straits of Florida by late Sat.

Farther east, ridging north of 22N between 45W and 65W will erode
today, eventually giving way to the next approaching cold front
that will be arriivng from the north-central Atlantic. The front
will move east of 35W on Wed, accompanied by a large area of NW
swell with wave heights of 8-15 ft covering a large portion of the
area north of 20N and east of 45W Wed through Friday. Sea will
gradually decay to below 8 ft through Saturday.

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