Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 141036

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.


A strong cold front will move off the Texas coast later this
today followed by strong NW to N winds. These winds will funnel
along the coast of southern Tamaulipas and Veracruz later today,
reaching gale force with seas to 12 ft. Winds and seas will
gradually diminish through late Sat and overnight as the front
shifts farther eastward and high pressure builds into the western
Gulf. For more details please refer to the High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

The aforementioned cold front will approach the Southeastern
United States Sun, with increasing southerly flow ahead of the
front over the Bahamas and offshore waters east of Florida. The
front will reach the Atlantic waters Sun night, with gale force
winds developing north of 30N between 75W and 78W the front moves
east, then diminish below gale force through early Mon. For more
details please refer to the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of western
Africa near 09N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to
00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed
from 05N to 07N between 10W and 13W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W
and 50W.



Platform and buoy observations are showing fresh to occasionally
strong SE to S winds over much of the western Gulf, mainly off
the Texas coast and north of Yucatan. Buoy observations and a
recent altimeter satellite pass indicated seas reaching 6 to 8 ft
over the northwest Gulf as well. The winds and seas are building
ahead of a cold front moving through Texas this morning, expected
to reach the far northwest Gulf later this morning, proceeded by
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Platforms are indicated 3 to
5 nm visibility over the northwest Gulf, due in part to light
smoke originating from wildfires over the northern Yucatan

Strong northerly winds will follow the front today, reaching
gale force off Tampico and Veracruz by late Sat as the front
reaches from western Florida Panhandle to the northwest Yucatan
peninsula. The front will sweep across the southeast Gulf by late
Sun. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east through Mon
as high pressure builds across the northern Gulf in the wake of
the front through Tue. Expect fresh SE return flow across the
western Gulf by Wed.


Ridging north of the region is supporting fresh to strong winds
over the Gulf of Honduras, into the Windward Passage and off
northeast Colombia. Recent observations from Roatan in the Bay
Islands of the Gulf of Honduras indicate fresh to strong trades
are ongoing. The ridge will persist into Sun over the western
Atlantic, supporting fresh to strong trade winds and building
seas in these areas as well the central Caribbean in general.

The ridge will shift east ahead of a cold front moving into the
northwest Caribbean late Sun, reaching from central Cuba to
eastern Honduras Mon followed by strong northerly winds. This
late season front will weaken through late Mon allowing winds and
seas to diminish over the northwest Caribbean through Tue.


Ridging along 32N/33N is maintaining moderate E to SE winds
north of 22N, and moderate to fresh tradewinds south of 22N,
except 20 to 25 kt north of Haiti and near the approaches of the
Windward Passage. A recent altimeter satellite pass and a couple
of nearby ship observations were showing seas 8 to 10 ft
northeast of the Bahamas near 27N68W. This is likely lingering NE
to E swell and should decay below 8 ft through this morning.
Farther south, seas may be getting close to 8 ft near the
approaches to the Windward Passage as well. Elsewhere seas are
generally 5 to 7 ft in open waters. No significant showers or
thunderstorms are noted. Aside from the pulses of fresh to strong
winds north of Hispaniola, generally moderate SE to S winds and
5 to 7 ft seas in open waters will persist tonight into Sun
across the region.

The SE to S winds will increase to fresh to strong W of 75W
early Sun ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida
coast late Sun, then increase to strong to near gale force ahead
of the front through Mon. Winds to gale force are possible Sun
night north of 30N between 75W and 78W as the front moves through
the region, reaching from 31N70W to eastern Cuba by Mon night.
Winds will diminish through late Tue as the front reaches from
Bermuda to the southern Bahamas. High pressure will build along
30N in the wake of the front as it stalls and weakens from 31N60W
to the central Bahamas Wed, maintaining generally light winds and
modest seas north of 25N, and moderate trades south of 25N, with
pulses of fresh to strong trades off Hispaniola.

Farther east, a 1027 mb high centered near 28N35W is maintaining
light winds north of 20N, with moderate to fresh trade winds south
of 20N. NE to E swell of 8 to 11 ft persists south of 20N as well,
as noted in recent altimeter satellite passes, reaching as far
west as the Windward Islands. A broad upper trough along 50W
south of 15N is interacting with trade wind convergence along the
ITCZ to support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms north of
the ITCZ between 25W and 50W.

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