Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 150003

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from Guinea on the African coast near
09N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 04N20W to
04N25W to 03N30W to 03N37W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present
from 01N to 03N between 18W and 30W.



High pressure centered over Louisiana is generally maintaining
moderate NE winds over the Gulf waters except over the Bay of
Campeche, where a tighter pressure gradient over southern Mexico
is supporting fresh winds. The high will migrate southeast from
Louisiana to the northeast Gulf during the next 24 hours, then
to the Bahamas by Sat evening. Moderate to fresh northeast winds
will generally veer to SE on Thu then to S on Fri as the high
shifts ESE. Return flow on the west side of the high will become
moderate to fresh on Friday. The strongest return flow will be
concentrated W of 90W.


A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near 21N77W to the
coast of N central Honduras near 16N86W. The front is weakening
and will dissipate tonight. Moderate to fresh trades are
observed north of the front. Fresh to strong trades are observed
over the waters south of 18N and east of 75W, where lower
pressure over South America is augmenting the pressure gradient.
Elsewhere, light to moderate trades and relatively dry
conditions prevail and will continue during the next several
days as mid to upper-level ridging extending over the basin from
the east maintains a benign weather pattern.


A stationary front crosses the west-central Atlantic from 32N55W
to 29N63W to the coast of NE Cuba near 21N77W. Winds along the
front have weakened in response to the approach of a secondary
cold front from the NW. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is observed along and up to 180 nm on either side of
the front. The convection associated with the front will shift
eastward and diminish tonight as the front weakens. The
secondary cold front pushing SE from the Carolinas and Georgia
will cause the northern part of the front to begin moving east
again by tonight before the two boundaries merge. The combined
front will then dissipate into a trough by the end of the week.
High pressure will build from the northwest behind the front by
tonight and shift east into the west Atlantic along 27N this
weekend. A broad area of high pressure prevails across the
central and eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1026 mb high
centered near 27N42W. The high is maintaining moderate to fresh
northeast winds over the tropical Atlantic north of the ITCZ
between 30W and the Windward Islands.

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