000
FXUS63 KDDC 201855
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
155 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Desperately needed rain is entering the western counties on
schedule as of midday, as diffluence increases aloft well ahead
of a 555 dm closed low near Moab, Utah. Elevated convection along
the KS/CO border has been more robust than expected, supported by
MUCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg per mesoanalysis. Severe
weather is not expected. Still, lightning is quite prevalent with
the stronger updrafts and small hail is possible with the stronger
storms. Given convective trends, expanded the isolated thunder
mention northward to the US 50 corridor through this evening.
Otherwise, bands of rain showers will continue to spread eastward
across SW KS this afternoon as forcing for ascent increases
associated with the warm conveyor belt. This will be the main
event for much of the CWA through this evening, with a widespread
QPF of 0.25"-0.75" for all zones. Is it enough rain? Absolutely
not. But the most widespread soaking rain we have seen in months
is more than welcome. The initial bands of activity will advance
into central Kansas after midnight, replaced by very moist upslope
flow and lowering stratus. 12z NAM continues to depict the
dryslot aloft to enter SW KS between midnight and sunrise, as the
closed upper low arrives in Baca county, Colorado. Some scattered
light showers will be scattered about, but for the most part only
expecting drizzle, stratus, and perhaps some local fog overnight.
Temperatures tonight will hold in the lower 40s for most zones.

Saturday...Cloudy cool and damp. Slow moving closed low only
trudges eastward across SW KS, taking most of the day to cross the
CWA. As such, stratus will reign with no sunshine expected.
Eventually, the upper low reconsolidates in NW Oklahoma by 7 pm.
Models have been differing on how much additional rainfall occurs
Saturday, so just kept chance/likely pops for rain showers in the
grids with modest additional QPF amounts. Another 0.10-0.25" is
most likely across the SE zones, closest to the reorganizing upper
low in Oklahoma late in the day. Obviously, temperatures will not
move much Saturday, spending most of the day in the 40s. Light
winds will trend NEly through the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Long term forecast through next week will be quiet and rather
uneventful. Unfortunately, long term drought relief prospects look
quite bleak, with dry weather prevailing. A shortwave embedded in
the NW flow aloft, and its associated cold front, will pass during
the Tuesday timeframe. A few rain showers will accompany this
system, but widespread/significant rain is not expected.

Sunday...A pleasant spring day with plenty of sun, light winds,
and afternoon temperatures in the lower 60s. A great day to watch
the grass turn green!

Monday...Weak ridging in the NW flow aloft will yield warmer
temperatures, back closer to normal for late April, in the upper
60s and lower 70s. Light winds will trend SEly in the afternoon,
as shortwave approaches from the NW.

Tuesday...12z ECMWF places a 564dm closed low in eastern Wyoming
at 7am, sliding it into NW Kansas Tuesday evening. Strong north
winds of 20-30 mph will prevail by afternoon behind the associated
cold front. There will be some scattered light rain showers
accompanying this system, favoring the northern/eastern zones, and
pop grids offered by the model blend were retained. This system`s
moisture supply will be limited, with NW flow continuing to shunt
gulf moisture away from Kansas.

Surface high near 1032 mb is still progged to approach the NW
zones Wednesday morning, so will need to continue to watch this
time frame for frost/light freeze potential across the NW zones. A
widespread/killing freeze looks unlikely. Little cold air
advection noted, so still expecting 60s on Wednesday.

12z ECMWF drives yet another cold front through Kansas Thursday,
with breezy north winds and perhaps a sprinkle. A strong PNA
synoptic pattern is indicated next Friday, with a closed low in
the Ohio valley, and strong ridging over the Rocky mtns. Strong
dry NW flow will ensure a dry forecast with no chance of
thunderstorms on the plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

High confidence that flight categories will degrade sharply this
TAF cycle, with IFR/LIFR stratus cigs and reduced vis in BR/-SHRA.
Expect numerous -SHRA to reach GCK/LBL by 21z, and DDC/HYS during
the 21-00z time frame. Rain will reach moderate intensity at times,
reducing visibility. Instability is limited, with the best chance
of VCTS at LBL (near the Oklahoma border) this afternoon/this
evening. This initial round of rain will progress into central
Kansas around 06z Sat. Behind this initial activity, short term
models all agree cigs will lower sharply into the LIFR category at
all airports, in response to moist E/SE upslope flow over (by
then) moist soils. Areas of BR/DZ/-RA will continue through
Saturday, with continued IFR/LIFR cigs and poor flying weather, as
the primary closed low aloft slowly crosses SW KS during the day.
Expect rapidly improving conditions Saturday night, with VFR
expected Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  42  48  38 / 100  90  60  30
GCK  52  41  52  37 / 100  90  50  20
EHA  49  39  53  38 / 100  80  50  10
LBL  54  42  51  39 / 100  80  60  20
HYS  61  42  47  37 /  40  80  60  30
P28  64  45  48  41 /  30  90  70  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner