Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180525

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1225 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

An upper level shortwave currently moving into northern California
will move into the Four Corners region tonight then into the
Central Rockies tomorrow. Towards the surface, lee troughing will
strengthen tonight with southeasterly winds across western Kansas.
Southeasterly winds continue tomorrow with moisture pooling across
Central Kansas. Meanwhile, the area of low pressure across eastern
Colorado will slide eastward into far western Kansas in the
afternoon. Very dry conditions are expected behind this boundary
elevating fire weather danger. Moisture will continue to pool
across central Kansas during the day with partly to mostly cloudy
skies and winds from the southeast. A few storms may form along
the aforementioned boundary in the late afternoon, but most
activity will hold off until closer to sunset. As for
temperatures, lows tonight are expected to dip into the mid to
upper 30s with highs tomorrow ranging from the low 70s across far
western Kansas with mid to upper 60s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night
mainly east of Highway 83. A few storms may become strong to
severe before midnight with high winds and hail being the main
concern. This system moves east of the area Monday with a few wrap
around showers possible across the area throughout the day with
decreasing cloudiness Monday night. Strong northerly winds are
expected behind this system with temperatures falling below
normal. The remainder of the week looks dry as an upper level
ridge builds over the western United States with high pressure
being the dominate feature at the surface. Models then suggest the
next disturbance to move through the area Friday into this
weekend. It is too far out to tell exactly what type of weather we
will have during this time frame and will be watched over the next
several model runs. As for temperatures, highs Monday will only
reach into the 40s with 50s Tuesday, 60s Wednesday, then back into
the 70s Thursday and Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Fairly active aviation weather will exist through this TAF period,
with the main challenge being timing and extent of ceiling, as
well as how low ceiling will go later in the period. The best
forecast is that MVFR ceiling will develop and affect DDC and HYS
terminals from late morning through the afternoon hours Sunday.
This initial surge of stratus should remain east of LBL and GCK.
Winds will be fairly strong out of the south to southeast at 18 to
23 knots. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the
00-03Z time frame Sunday Night.


DDC  37  68  39  47 /   0  20  70  50
GCK  36  69  37  46 /   0  10  60  50
EHA  36  70  36  49 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  36  73  38  49 /   0  10  40  30
HYS  34  64  39  44 /   0  20  90  80
P28  36  67  42  51 /   0  30  80  40




SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.