931
FXUS63 KDDC 060508
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1208 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tonight, Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) severe storms for far
  west central Kansas with a fairly low chance that storms will
  survive late into the night, east of Highway 83.

- Tomorrow evening, Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) severe storms
  with a much better chance of longer-lived thunderstorm
  cluster, capable of damaging wind gusts to 70 mph.

- The overall pattern will continue to favor another round of
  storms moving in from Colorado again Monday Night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Thunderstorm chances, timing, location, and severity will continue
to be the main forecast challenges over the next several days.  As
far as the near-term goes through this evening, widely scattered
strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will likely develop along
an old, stalled out front westward into east central and southeast
Colorado. The surface wind convergence along the old front across
southwest Kansas was quite weak, but dewpoint temperatures holding
in the upper 60s to lower 70s and the lack of a strong capping
inversion will help mitigate the weakness in surface convergence. As
of 20Z, we were already seeing towering cumulus and even a small
storm or two near the Colorado line from around Saunders north-
northwestward to north of Coolidge. This area of initial development
seemed to match up well with HREF paintball plot of 35+ dBZ
Composite Reflectivity.

Deep layer shear is pretty weak, however 8km AGL winds of around 45-
50 knots will overspread far western Kansas by early evening, so
there should be at least some loosely organized, marginally severe
clusters. Supercell structures do not appear likely, however a brief
period of modest mid level rotation in any of the strongest discrete
storms cannot be ruled out for some large hail potential (perhaps up
to 1.5" diameter) and up to 70 mph wind gusts before storms grow
upscale and cold pools begin to take over. Another round of storms
is shown by the HREF and even latest HRRR runs, affecting mainly far
west central and far southwest Kansas before they ultimately
diminish at some point during the overnight hours. Thus, highest
POPs will be confined to the western counties (generally 40-50%).

Looking ahead to tomorrow/tomorrow night, the prospects for even more
organized storms and perhaps a fairly long-lived mesoscale
convective system (MCS) look better, as upper level forcing for
ascent increases with the exit region of a high-level jet around 60
knots moving out across the Central High Plains. This, combined with
slightly improved low level upslope winds (vs. today) will aid in
greater deep layer shear to support more organized, longer-lived
strong to severe convection. For this reason, the SPC Day Two
outlook does include much of our southwest and west central Kansas
region in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A dying MCS continues near GCK and LBL which will keep VCTS in
the TAFs through 09Z. Main threat with the storms could be some
brief wind gusts to 45 kts. In general we should have VFR flight
category with winds around 12 kts. Later this afternoon some
isolated thunderstorms could develop near DDC and GCK between
20-02Z. Threat with these storms could be downburst winds
greater than 50 kts. A more well organized line of storms will
come out of Colorado with winds and heavy rain and will be near
HYS around 03Z and GCK, DDC, and LBL towards 05-06Z. Any
thunderstorm with the heavy rain could reduce flight category
briefly to MVFR or IFR due to lower surface visibilities.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Tatro