Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
554 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

The most significant precipitation event since early October (for
some, if not most locations!) is still on track for later this
evening through early Monday. A compact upper level low was
undergoing development as of 0800 UTC near Las Vegas, NV. Some
lightning flashes were noted in the Grand Canyon area of
northwestern Arizona immediately ahead of the mid level potential
vorticity anomaly. All models are pretty much in agreement with
track and timing now, given that we are 24 hours or less from the
event occurring. Mesoscale model signals are fairly interesting, in
that there should be fairly aggressive convective initiation from
the north central TX Panhandle to around the Liberal area around
0000 UTC this evening. Despite mid/upper 40s dewpoints in this
region at around this time, very cold mid level temperatures,
characteristic of mid-March storms, will yield 500 to 700 J/kg

If we had just a little bit more moisture, and subsequently CAPE,
there would be a greater risk of more vigorous severe weather,
considering the low level shear will be very impressive immediately
ahead of the mid level PV anomaly. 0-1km AGL SRH will increase from
around 150-200 m2/s2 at 0000 UTC to 350-400 m2/s2 at 0300 UTC.
Convective mode during this time frame is a little bit unclear, but
given such outrageous 0-1km shear by 0300 UTC, if we can hold on to
at least 500 J/kg SBCAPE, then weak/brief tornadic events cannot be
totally discounted near the KS-OK border area. Otherwise, the
primary severe events will most likely be the typical 60 mph wind
gusts and large hail to around quarter or perhaps half dollar size,
mainly along/south of the Arkansas River. Eventually, convection
will grow upscale very quickly sometime in the 0300-0600 UTC time
frame across southwest KS. Brief heavy rainfall is likely in some
areas, where a quick half inch or more of rain will probably fall,
especially north of the Ark River and east of U283. Categorical POPs
greater than 80 percent are in the grids in this area. There is
growing confidence that some areas between DDC and HYS will see more
than an inch of rain, despite the lack of appreciable moisture. With
this system, it will be all about upward vertical motion, and there
will be a lot of it in the 0300-1200 UTC time frame tonight. In
fact, the latent heat release from all the convection will probably
allow a more rapid development of the mid level cyclone than the
models are suggesting. Unfortunately for far southwest Kansas, i.e.
Elkhart, Johnson, Hugoton areas in particular, rainfall amounts will
be scant. There will almost definitely be a sharp gradient between
almost no rainfall at all near Elkhart to well over an inch the
closer you get toward HYS-GBD areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

On Monday, remnant light rain will be occurring in the wrap-around
region of the mid-level cyclone across western Kansas, however
additional precipitation amounts will be quite light, except for
areas up along I-70 and points north of there. Strong north winds
are likely, at 25 to 35 mph with temperatures struggling to get much
above 40 by afternoon. There is some hint that very wet snow may
occur as precipitation comes to an end across portions of western
Kansas on Monday, but for now, the forecast will be all rain Monday
for the DDC CWA.

Looking beyond Monday, we will enter our typical dry period again
with a gradual warm-up Tuesday and Wednesday before a more
aggressive warm-up end of week. Friday looks to be the warmest day
of the Long Term period with widespread 80s likely. The latest ECMWF
model suggests highs precariously close to 90F in the Red Hills
Friday as it spreads +23C 850mb temperatures into this region by
0000 UTC Saturday. Another deep western CONUS trough is shown by the
ECMWF and GFS next weekend, with some cold air spreading south into
the Central Plains with fair amount of surface cyclogenesis. There
is no solid signal on the synoptic scale, though, to grab onto
regarding the next potential precipitation event for western Kansas,
so stay tuned.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Aviation weather will be fairly active through Monday morning.
MVFR ceiling is expected to develop mid to late morning at DDC and
HYS, but some scattering out of this cloud is expected by
afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop and affect all terminals to
some degree this evening. The most prolonged shower and
thunderstorm activity will likely be at HYS late tonight through
early Monday morning. Strong north winds will develop behind the
low pressure system early Monday morning.


Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop this
afternoon across far western Kansas adjacent the Colorado border. A
Red Flag Warning was hoisted for Morton-Stanton-Hamilton County as a
result. South to southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph will develop, and
as temperatures warm to the 69 to 72F range, relative humidity
should fall to around 15 percent for a few hours. Farther east,
dewpoint temperatures will increase quite a bit, thus critical fire
weather conditions are not expected (only Elevated conditions), but
given the anticipated strong winds, any outdoor burning is highly
discouraged anywhere across western Kansas today.


DDC  61  39  45  29 /  20  80  50  10
GCK  67  37  45  26 /  30  70  50   0
EHA  72  36  49  27 /  20  30  20   0
LBL  72  38  49  27 /  40  60  20   0
HYS  58  39  42  29 /   0  80  80  20
P28  57  42  49  33 /  20  80  40  20


Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ061-074-084.



SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.