Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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909
FXUS63 KDDC 181731
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1231 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

...Updated Short Term Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

A cold front has pushed through the entire CWA in the over night
hours with gusty northwest winds behind it due to a strong
pressure gradient still present. This will relax over time this
afternoon diminishing the northwest winds before becoming light
and variable less than 10mph after sunset and over night due to
night time cooling and a temperature inversion setting up in the
low levels at the surface. Upper level ridging will set back into
place across the Rocky Mountains giving a dry northwest flow for
western Kansas and through the end of the week. High pressure at
the surface extends from the north centered over the Dakotas
keeping winds light and turning more out of the southeast
Thursday. This will help to set up a more moist low level flow as
an upper level low currently off the Californian coast pushes
across the southwest and four corner region heading into Friday
increasing rain chances significantly.

In the meantime, high temperatures this afternoon will only reach
the 60s due to the aforementioned cold front that has pushed
through the CWA. Clear skies and light winds will allow
temperatures to drop over night with Thursday morning lows only in
the low 30s with many northern counties below the freezing point.
Southeast flow Thursday will bring in a deeper moisture flux into
the area with winds only 10-15mph and temperatures again only in
the 60s. Relative humidity values will stay in the upper 20 to low
30 percent range. Skies will remain mostly clear Thursday under
the high pressure at the surface and upper level ridge pushing
closer over us. An influx of upper level moisture will begin to
advect into the region from the southwest due to the
aforementioned low showing the signs of changes to come for Friday
and heading into the weekend. Upper level divergence ahead of the
low increases over time allowing the low to deepen as it pushes
across the southwest before pushing its way into western Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Dry conditions continue Thursday with mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be out of the south to southeast as troughing
across eastern Colorado intensifies. Meanwhile, an upper level low
will move into the Rockies Thursday night and move just to the
south of the area Friday into Saturday. Cloud cover increases
Thursday night as this system approaches with mostly cloudy skies
expected Friday through Saturday night. Precipitation chances
will increase across far western Kansas Friday morning, spreading
eastward and increasing in likely hood Friday night. A good chance
of precipitation is expected across the forecast area Friday
night through Saturday as the system moves eastward. This system
then exits the area Saturday night with decreasing precipitation
chances from north to south. Models continue to show areas of 1
inch plus across portions of western Kansas. However, the trends
continue to decrease during each model run and will need to be
watched over the next couple of days to fine tune amounts. Dry
conditions return Sunday and Monday as an upper level ridge builds
across the western United states and high pressure returns as the
dominate feature at the surface. As for temperatures, highs
Thursday look to be in the 60s with upper 50s and lower 60s
Friday. Highs are then anticipated to only reach into the lower
50s Saturday then back into the 60s Sunday through Tuesday. Lows
will generally range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

VFR conditions will persist through the entire TAF period and
beyond with clear skies and unrestricted visibility under high
pressure building into the CWA. Winds will gust out of the
northwest up to 30-35kts until 20Z before starting to diminish to
gusts up to 25kts and turning out of the northeast as the
aforementioned surface ridging extends in from the northwest.
After sunset around 01Z, winds will die off tremendously as night
time cooling starts and a temperature inversion sets up at the
surface. The pressure gradient also relaxes at this time with not
much of a spread across the entire region of western Kansas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  33  64  40 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  64  31  65  40 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  65  36  68  42 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  67  34  67  42 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  62  31  60  37 /   0   0   0  10
P28  69  35  65  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ061-062-074>076-084>089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lowe
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Lowe



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