Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

High pressure will continue to dominate the CWA with surface ridging
extending in from a high centered over the Great Lake region. A
stationary boundary stretches across from eastern Colorado and
down into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles giving a southerly
flow at the surface for our area. Gusty winds will be present for
most of the area with a fairly tight pressure gradient across the
CWA with the strongest winds for the western and southwestern
counties. These areas with the strongest winds will also
experience the lowest relative humidity values of 10-15 percent
this afternoon due to the dry, downsloping southwesterly winds.
This will persist through the evening before diminishing after
sunset as night time cooling takes place and a weak inversion sets
up near the surface. Temperatures this afternoon will range
dramatically from the low 80s in Elkhart and upper 50s in Hays
this afternoon as the aforementioned stationary boundary lifts
back to the northeast as a warm front before pushing through the
entire CWA over night.

With this, will come a much milder start to Tuesday with lows in
the upper 30s to mid 40s for the CWA. Southwest flow behind the
aforementioned warm front will warm and dry things out
significantly through the afternoon due to downsloping winds.
Highs will sore into the 80s for much of the CWA with winds
gusting up to 35mph over a tight pressure gradient mixing to the
surface by late morning lasting through the rest of the
afternoon. A short wave trough currently over the northern Rockies
will push into western Kansas tomorrow supporting a dry,
northwest cold front Tuesday evening turning winds out of the
northwest with initial gusts up to 40-45mph behind it lasting
through midnight before diminishing over night as the pressure
gradient relaxes. Upper level divergence is not too strong
supporting this system, and no precipitation will fall during or
after frontal passage. The main concerns for the near term through
tomorrow night, will be with the stronger southwest winds ahead
of the cold front before shifting abruptly out of the northwest
behind it as it quickly pushes through the CWA from the northwest
to southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...Widespread beneficial rainfall expected Friday and Saturday...

Intense W to NW winds will continue for several hours Tuesday
evening behind the departing shortwave. Wind/wind gust grids are
near high wind warning criteria for a few hours before sunset,
with 850 mb wind fields supporting gusts in the 50-60 mph range
before the boundary layer decouples at sunset.

Wednesday...Sunny and cooler, with a continued gusty NW wind.
Despite the cool advection from NW winds of 20-30 mph, strong
subsidence will yield full April sunshine, allowing for
temperatures to easily warm through the 60s. NW winds will weaken
late Wednesday/Wednesday night as weak high pressure passes by.

Thursday...Continued sunny, with similar temperatures to those
observed Wednesday. Return flow establishes during the afternoon,
around a 1030 mb surface high in Iowa, and ahead of an approaching
strong closed low near the Grand Canyon. SE wind gusts near 30 mph
will be routine.

Friday and Saturday...We are cautiously optimistic that the
widespread beneficial rainfall, that SW Kansas has so desperately
needed for so long, will finally arrive. Computer model guidance
has displayed amazing consistency with their previous runs, and
among each other, so it seems hard to imagine how the rain would
miss SW Kansas at this point. It`s nerve-racking to use language
like this in such a terrible drought, but model pop guidance
supports it, with rain coverage in 12z MEX guidance now near 90%.
12z ECMWF depicts an (importantly) slow-moving closed low near the
Four Corners Friday afternoon, with strong flow/diffluence aloft
spreading rain and embedded thunder into SW Kansas by afternoon.
Rain is expected to move into the western counties first Friday
afternoon and night. A strong warm conveyor belt ahead of the
closed low will have great access to moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico, and with the storm`s slower, and more southward, track
this appears to be a system that will make a dent in our long term
drought. Certainly, some of the short term fire danger will be
alleviated. Models continue to depict a broadscale 1-2" rainfall.
Cold air will be lacking, so no snow is in the forecast, and
surface based instability will be equally lacking, so severe
weather should be south of SW KS. Some elevated convection/thunder
is likely across the southern zones late Friday given the
dynamics aloft and the time of year, but don`t see potential for
anything more than small hail at this time. This will be a wind
blown rain, with strong SE winds of 25-35 mph prevailing as the
rain moves in. Through Saturday, storm track from 12z ECMWF
continues to be encouraging, with a 562 dm low in NW Oklahoma,
with widespread deformation/wraparound rain across SW KS. Outdoor
plans on Saturday currently appear to be washed out, but we doubt
we will find anyone that cares! Saturday will also be the coolest
day of course, with temperatures struggling to near 50 in the
clouds, rain and NE winds.

Rain is expected to end Saturday night. Sunday and Monday will be
dry with moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the entire
period with only a few strands of high cirrus visible. Winds will
gust up to 20-25kts this afternoon before diminishing to less than
10kts after sunrise due to nighttime cooling and a weak inversion
sets up at the near surface. Stronger low level winds will mix
down to the surface by 16Z for LBL, GCK, and DDC as the
temperature warms to break the aforementioned temperature
inversion and expected to gust up to 30-35kts by mid afternoon
after the TAF period ahead of the next cold front that will push
through tomorrow evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  40  85  39 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  71  35  85  37 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  83  48  83  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  78  43  87  39 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  57  36  74  39 /   0   0   0  10
P28  66  43  86  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Tuesday for KSZ043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ061-062-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lowe
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Lowe



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