Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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665 ACUS11 KWNS 110544 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110544 ILZ000-IAZ000-110715- Mesoscale Discussion 1639 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Areas affected...east-central and eastern Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 503... Valid 110544Z - 110715Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 503 continues. SUMMARY...A downstream severe thunderstorm watch may be needed soon across portions of eastern Iowa. DISCUSSION...A well-established bowing cluster with a history of severe wind gusts is currently moving across central Iowa. The KDMX VWP suggests this cluster has started to outrun the stronger low-level jet which could limit its intensity as it moves farther east. However, 2000 to 2500 J/kg MUCAPE is present across all of central and eastern Iowa which could maintain this cluster with some severe weather threat across eastern Iowa through the early morning hours. This threat would likely be maximized along the frontal zone (apparent by lead convection across eastern Iowa and far western Illinois). Confidence in this cluster of storms moving farther east into Illinois is low given the weaker instability, ongoing convection along the boundary, and a weaker low-level jet with eastward extent. However, there may be sufficient instability/forcing to necessitate a small downstream watch across eastern Iowa to address this threat. Convective trends will continue to be monitored. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX... LAT...LON 41859412 41969294 41919166 41889065 41659027 41199055 40859096 40899157 40929208 40909244 40949361 41059404 41859412 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN