Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 231509
SPC MCD 231509

Mesoscale Discussion 0285
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Areas affected...Parts of coastal South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 231509Z - 231715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Locally gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado are
possible along parts of the South Carolina coast this morning.

DISCUSSION...Radar data this morning depict a likely MCV lifting
north across the Savannah, GA area. Warm advection/low-level
confluence attendant to this MCV is focusing a band of convection
that extends to the southeast offshore the coast. As the primary
warm front remains farther south, onshore surface temperatures/dew
points are only in the lower/mid 60s across coastal South Carolina,
resulting in meager surface-based buoyancy. Still, a few stronger
gusts have been reported recently near the GA/SC border, likely
aided by weak low-level rotation in these cells lifting northeast.
KCLX VWP data show notable veering of winds with height, favorable
for continued weak rotation. In turn, localized strong, damaging
gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado may be possible near the
coast into early afternoon.

..Picca/Hart.. 04/23/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


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