Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 151618
SPC MCD 151618

Mesoscale Discussion 0267
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Areas affected...west central Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 51...

Valid 151618Z - 151715Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 51 continues.

SUMMARY...Storms will likely move onshore near the Tampa area around
17Z and may pose a risk for mainly strong to damaging wind, but a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out. This area is south of tornado
watch 51, but the existing WW can be locally extended a few counties
south as needed, or a separate severe thunderstorm watch could be
issued. Plans are also to expand the slight risk farther south
through remainder of the Tampa forecast area with the 1630Z update.

DISCUSSION...Line of storms with broad bow echo configuration
located off the west central FL coast is moving east around 30 kt
and will reach the coast near Tampa around 17Z. The atmosphere
inland is moist with upper 70s surface dewpoints and temperatures
rising through the 80s supporting MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg. Some
increase in low-mid level winds is expected next hour or two. The
overall environment with strong low-level and deep shear, moderate
instability and influence of MCV located near northern end of the
bowing segment appear supportive of a organized structures with a
threat for damaging wind as the line moves inland.

..Dial.. 04/15/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   28388206 28008165 27388173 27258240 28148278 28388206 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.