465
ACUS11 KWNS 121936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121935
TXZ000-122130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1657
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Areas affected...central Texas and the Texas Hill Country

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 121935Z - 122130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms will be capable of sporadic
damaging gusts and small hail this afternoon/evening. A WW is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Across portions of west-central TX, numerous
thunderstorms have redeveloped/intensified ahead of a weak cold
front and MCV. Strong diurnal heating of a very moist air mass
(dewpoints in the mid 70s F) is supporting moderate destabilization
despite poor mid-level lapse rates. Numerous thunderstorms with
occasional stronger updrafts are expected. Deep-layer shear is weak
with flow aloft generally blow 20 kt. This should keep storm
organization transient at best. Still, deep, saturated thermodynamic
profiles and PWATS near 1.8-2 inches will favor heavily water-loaded
downdrafts in these storms. This could support sporadic damaging
gusts with wet microbursts, along with small hail and localized
torrential rainfall rates (see WPC MPD: #0660).

Severe potential will be maximized where storm coverage is highest.
This is most likely ahead of the MCV and along the sagging front
across central TX and the western Hill Country. As downdrafts
intensify, gradually consolidation into more persistent clusters
that spread eastward with time is likely. While some severe risk is
possible, the negligible deep-layer shear and localized risk for
damaging gusts and hail suggests a severe watch is unlikely.

..Lyons/Mosier.. 07/12/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   30300155 32250118 33359976 33629832 32829725 31739706
            29909838 29140007 29580070 30300155

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN