528
ACUS11 KWNS 102314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102313
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-110115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1634
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0613 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...Eastern IA into northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 102313Z - 110115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail/wind, and perhaps a brief tornado, are
possible across eastern Iowa into northern Illinois this evening.
Watch is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is evident in
water-vapor imagery, very near the MS River, from southeast MN into
northwestern IL. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature appears to
be aiding convection across northern IL, just north of a warm front
that is draped from south of Chicago to north of Dubuque IA.
Low-level warm advection is likely contributing to a few small,
slow-moving clusters north of the wind shift. Radar data suggests
this activity may be generating locally severe hail, and gusty
winds. Wind profiles are not that strong ahead of the short wave,
but veering profiles do suggest some rotation is possible.

Farther west across eastern IA, scattered thunderstorms have
developed just behind the trough within a more buoyant and stronger
sheared environment. At times a few updrafts have exhibited
supercell characteristics, but updrafts have struggled to organize
at times, possibly due to the passage of the short wave. Unless this
activity becomes more organized current thinking is the primary
concerns will be isolated hail/wind, and perhaps a brief tornado.

..Darrow/Hart.. 07/10/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42599148 42288778 41328786 41039052 40769277 42599148

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN