Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 110207
SPC MCD 110206

Mesoscale Discussion 0114
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0806 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

Areas affected...Northeast OK...Central/Southern
AR...Northwest/Central MS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 7...

Valid 110206Z - 110400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 7 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe hail will remain possible across portions of
northeast OK and central AR for the next hour or two. A downstream
watch may be needed across portions of northern/central MS.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over south-central
OK with a warm front extending eastward through southern AR and
central MS. Thunderstorm coverage has increased over the past hour
as a subtle increase in the low-level jet promotes warm-air
advection across the frontal zone. Supercell moving across central
AR has devolved into an outflow-dominant storm cluster with
occasional updrafts strong enough to support large hail. Storm
interactions and favorable vertical shear will likely result in the
persistence of isolated hail for the next hour or two.

Downstream airmass across MS is notably more stable (i.e. 00Z JAN
sounding sampled a 700-500mb lapse rate of only 5.6 degrees C per km
verses 7.2 degrees C per km on the 00Z LZK) but strong vertical
shear, continued warm-air advection, and recent storm trends suggest
a continued severe storm threat. As a result, a watch may be needed
within the hour.

..Mosier.. 03/11/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   35319575 36329574 36219437 34559066 33768886 32628926
            33019097 34529470 35319575 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.