Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 102357
SPC MCD 102357

Mesoscale Discussion 0113
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0557 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

Areas affected...Central/Southern AR...Northwest MS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 7...

Valid 102357Z - 110200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 7 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe hail as well as damaging wind gusts remain possible
for the next few hours across central/southern AR.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends have shown an increase of
southwesterly motion of the supercell moving through Logan county,
likely a result of both a transition to a more outflow-dominant
storm structure and influence from an upstream shortwave trough.
This transition has lead to a modest weakening in overall storm
strength, although the updraft currently remains strong enough to
produce severe hail (as evidenced by recent storm reports a MESH
over 1 inch). Current mesoanalysis estimates the downsteam airmass
is marginally unstable with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. Expectation is
for a continued linear transition with storm motion along or very
near the warm front. As this occurs, the threat for severe hail will
diminish somewhat with some increase in the overall damaging wind
potential, at least for the next hour or two.

More cellular convection is also possible across northwest MS in the
vicinity of the warm front. Instability in this area is not
particularly strong but favorable shear may result in a few updrafts
capable of isolated severe hail. The need for an additional watch
within the next hour or two is unclear although trends will be
monitored closely.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/10/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   35579464 36069371 35819258 33848959 32989069 33509269
            34269440 35579464 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.