Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 200027
SPC MCD 200027

Mesoscale Discussion 0278
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southern NM into far west TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 200027Z - 200300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A very isolated hail/wind risk may exist through this
evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture remains limited early this evening
across southern NM into far west TX, with surface dewpoints no
greater than mid to upper 30s. The 00Z sounding from El Paso, TX
shows a very deeply mixed boundary layer with MUCAPE around 650
J/kg. A veering and strengthening wind profile through mid-levels
and related effective bulk shear around 45-50 kt will support
updraft organization with any thunderstorms that form/move into
southern NM and far west TX. At this time, thunderstorm coverage is
expected to remain isolated at best, with the best chance for
convection forming across the higher terrain of northern Mexico and
moving just across the international border over the next several
hours. Given the deeply mixed boundary layer, strong/gusty downdraft
winds will be possible, along with some hail. Watch issuance is not
expected due to the overall isolated nature of the severe risk.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/20/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


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