000
FXUS64 KOUN 150358
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1058 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR condtions will persist through Sunday. Gusty north to
northwest winds will slowly diminish overnight, but gust again
after sunrise Sunday, then become light later Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 934 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/

UPDATE...
Northwest winds will continue overnight. Wind speeds have
decreased over the last several hours and are expected to become 5
to 15 mph overnight.

Temperatures at or below freezing are still expected across much
of the area. The Freeze Warning was expanded to include the rest
of the fa. Even though some locations may have low temperature
readings just above freezing other locations in these counties
could drop to or below freezing hence the expansion of the
warning.

Overall, the going forecast was good, just made some minor tweaks
to show current trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 712 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...

Ceilings just above MVFR will exit north central and central
Oklahoma this evening. Apart from some evening smoke in southwest
Oklahoma above the MVFR level, skies will become clear overnight
and into Sunday. Gusty north to northwest winds will slowly
diminish overnight, but gust again after sunrise Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather continues to be the main concern. Otherwise, most
areas will see another freeze Sunday morning, and there are
increasing rain chances late in the week.

Despite the cooler temperatures and higher humidity, the strong
winds are continuing to cause issue for ongoing fires, especially
the Rhea Fire in Dewey County. Temperatures tomorrow will be a
little warmer than today and winds will not be as strong, but low
humidity will spread over the area. Minimum relative humidity of
20 percent or less will cover much of the area west of a
Blackwell to Oklahoma City to Duncan to Waurika line - enough for
elevated fire weather conditions based on the Red Flag Threat
Index. Warmer temperatures and an increase in wind Monday and
especially Tuesday will increase the wildfire potential. Humidity
will again be fall to 20 percent or less over much of western
Oklahoma and western north Texas, and a return to the single
digit percentages looks likely in the west again Tuesday. RFTI
indicies in the western part of the forecast area give near-
critical conditions on Monday afternoon and extreme conditions on
Tuesday afternoon. Have gone in the lower side of the envelope of
forecast dewpoints the next few afternoons, closer to the ECMWF
projected dewpoints as these seem to do better in these early
season situations.

With the cooler airmass today behind this system, another freeze
is expected across much of the area. Will upgrade to a freeze
warning for the northern two-thirds of the area or so, and
maintain the freeze watch south where current forecast is closer
to 32 degrees.

The next storm system passes mainly to our north mid-week with
little precipitation expected, although cooler air will filter in
again on Tuesday night/Wednesday after our hot day on Tuesday. The
system that follows that currently has better odds of bringing
some precipitation to our area, but it is far enough out that we
will continue to watch trends over the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  29  58  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         28  66  35  82 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  32  64  38  83 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           25  64  33  80 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     28  55  25  67 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         34  59  36  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Sunday for OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

23/09/09