708
FXUS64 KOUN 071055
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
555 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

- Low to moderate rain/thunderstorm chances continue through at
  least mid-week.

- Hot and humid conditions later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Most of the storms moving through central Oklahoma have dissipated.
Meanwhile, a corridor of higher shear (30 kts effective bulk shear)
and instability (SBCAPE of 2000 joules) along the western OK / TX
border is allowing storms to persist southward a bit longer and
farther there. Main hazard will be a low risk for downburst winds
and localized flash flooding from slow moving storms.

Another round of storms coming off the high plains is expected to
approach northwest Oklahoma overnight toward dawn, though by this
time it should be on a weakening trend. The instability axis runs
along or just west of the OK / TX border, suggesting the complex
will turn southward through our western counties. Again, damaging
winds and localized flooding will be the main concerns if storms can
maintain any strength.

Widely scattered showers and storms are expected again along I-35
this afternoon, where PWATs are greater. Some CAMs also suggest a
few isolated storms forming along another moisture axis running
through northwest Oklahoma during the afternoon. Otherwise another
partly cloud day with temperatures at or just below normal.

Northwest flow will bring another chance for a decaying MCS to
approach northwest Oklahoma overnight.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A shortwave is expected to move through on Tuesday along with a
surface boundary, enhancing rain chances across the area. We`ve got
a marginal risk across most of our forecast area for severe storms
with damaging winds as the primary hazard.

As this wave pushes out some of the moisture, we should see a break
from these widely scattered diurnal showers on Wednesday. Mostly
clear skies will also allow us to warm up into the low to mid 90s.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Northwest flow continues into late week with MCS chances resuming
Thursday night. Temperatures are expected to be in the 90s Thursday
and Friday, including some heat indices near 105 in southeast parts
of the forecast area.

Current models show a cold front approaching Friday night (though
the strength of this system is subject to some synoptic
uncertainty). This will bring a brief cooldown and (you guessed it)
more rain chances.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Developing areas of low stratus and nearby rain/thunder will
continue to introduce reduced category potential this morning at
KSPS/KLAW/KCSM. Prevailing VFR conditions should emerge at all
terminals by midday, with another round of diurnally-driven
convection by the early afternoon and evening. Brief reductions in
cigs/vis (along with gusty and erratic winds) should be expected
if a thunderstorm impacts a terminal.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  71  91  71 /  10  20  20  20
Hobart OK         93  71  94  71 /  10  20  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  90  72  94  73 /  10  10  20  20
Gage OK           91  69  93  67 /  20  40  20  10
Ponca City OK     90  71  90  69 /  10  30  30  20
Durant OK         91  74  92  74 /  30  10  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...09