289
FXUS64 KOUN 101639
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1135 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

 - Increasing risk for thunderstorms and some severe weather
   beginning late Thursday evening and continuing into the
   weekend.

 - Potential for heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of
   the area on Saturday night into Sunday.

 - Hot and humid today with "cooler" conditions arriving areawide
   by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Hot and dry conditions are expected for most today, with a very low
(~20%) chance for a few thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma this
evening. The subtropical ridge across the Desert Southwest will
begin to get squeezed/retrograde, as a more notable upper system
ejects across the Great Divide. The net result to areawide sensible
weather will be an increase in temperatures this afternoon and
evening owing to increased southerly flow and greater impingement of
a warm low/mid-level airmass.

There is a medium-high chance (60-90%) for triple-digit heat across
portions of western Oklahoma and western-north Texas this afternoon,
with mid-90s elsewhere. While ambient temperatures will be "cooler"
across southeast Oklahoma, amidst a continued axis of high surface
moisture content, peak heat indices in the ~104-107-degree range
are anticipated.

A few showers/thunderstorms will also be possible across southeast
Oklahoma early this evening. Concern for severe weather is nil
and most locations will remain dry through sunset.

After sunset, possibly as late as near and after midnight, previous
thunderstorm coverage across the Southern High Plains is expected to
approach northwestern Oklahoma. The overall expectation remains for
a general weakening trend as this occurs, owing to relatively
warm mid-level temperatures/inhibition and a retracting
instability plume. Still, a few near-severe wind gusts cannot be
ruled out, mainly along thunderstorm outflow(s).

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Friday: The beginnings of a "cool down" and increasing
precipitation/storm chance (mainly north) are the weather headlines
on Friday. The previously mentioned upper trough looks to slow
across the Central Plains, with a weak quasi-stationary front
expected anywhere from central Kansas towards the Kansas/Oklahoma
border area.

A majority of daytime hours are forecast to be dry and somewhat
"cooler", with afternoon highs ranging from the mid-90s west to low-
90s east. By the early evening, heating along the surface boundary
will focus development of widely scattered thunderstorms. The main
uncertainty remains where the boundary is placed by this time,
with far northern Oklahoma having the highest chance through
sunset. A semi-favorable parameter space for downbursts is progged
across the region, and a few severe thunderstorms (with a
damaging wind risk) will be possible as well. Increasing shower
and storm coverage is expected towards the I-40 corridor
overnight as the front begins to slide closer to the area.

Saturday: While the primary/stronger upper system(s) will begin to
focus across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, a few pieces of guidance
depict a trailing (weak) impulse sliding from Raton towards the
area on Saturday. Combined with a lingering/slow-moving surface
boundary, scattered-to-numerous thunderstorm development appears
possible by Saturday afternoon and evening. With an influx of
near-surface moisture, and a pocket of cold temperatures aloft,
significant instability build is currently progged during this
time. This will likely contribute to increasing concern for
severe weather (despite borderline deep-layer wind shear
magnitudes), with the focus remaining on damaging downburst wind
events, though some hail will also be possible with more
robust/persistent updrafts.

Flooding also looks to become a concern by Saturday evening and
night, owing to potential for slow-moving heavy thunderstorms in a
moisture-laden environment (precipitable water magnitudes
near/exceeding climatological max for mid-July). This risk will
likely focus near the aforementioned surface front, where repeated
thunderstorm impact is possible. Predictability on exactly where
exactly the corridor of highest flooding concern emerges is low,
and currently exists anywhere from north-central Oklahoma towards
the I-44 corridor. Both the severe weather and flooding risk on
Saturday afternoon into night will be closely monitored over
coming forecast cycles.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

We look hard-pressed to transition into our typical hot and mostly
dry summertime pattern through at least the middle of next week,
with chances for precipitation existing most days. The upper pattern
looks to feature weak quasi-zonal flow, with the subtropical ridge
shunted notably westward. A relative peak in shower/thunderstorm
coverage is expected on Sunday across central and southern
portions of the area, near the remanant/weakening surface front
discussed above. The overall pattern will also support daytime
temperatures near to below normal (in the upper-80s to low-90s)
for mid-July.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VFR conditions to continue. A few afternoon cu expected across the
area with south winds gusting to near 20kts. Winds will diminish
this evening with developing llj, some sites will have a period of
llws, mainly after midnight. South/southwest winds will increase
quickly Friday morning with most sites gusting to round 25kts.
Also expect to see an increase in mid/high clouds across the west
Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  96  75  93  73 /   0   0   0  20
Hobart OK        100  75  97  73 /   0   0   0  30
Wichita Falls TX  99  76  96  75 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           99  71  95  68 /   0  30  10  50
Ponca City OK     94  75  92  71 /   0   0   0  50
Durant OK         96  76  95  76 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...30