601
FXUS64 KOUN 131130
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
630 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A short-wave trough will move slowly eastward across the central and
southern plains today. The associated surface front will is expected
to track closely with it. Fairly high precipitable water values
could lead to localized flooding with rain and storms that are
expected along part of the front today. Isolated ones could produce
near severe hail or wind. Showers and thunderstorms will move slowly
eastward today with the aforementioned features. Drier air will
filter south behind the front into Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Weak short-wave ridging will move over Oklahoma until
Wednesday when the next upper low approaches from southern
California resulting in increased southwesterly flow over Oklahoma.
south winds will have brought increased moisture northward. There
may be some showers/storms over northern or central Oklahoma
Wednesday morning in a warm advection regime. More storms are
expected Wednesday afternoon and evening when a lead short-wave
likely translates over Oklahoma. Several other weak-short wave
troughs are likely through Friday when the larger system finally
moves toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Mid-level heights are
expected to increase with a ridge over the southern plains during
the weekend. This will be associated with afternoon temperatures
from the mid 80s to lower 90s Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

An area of showers and thunderstorms persists across central
Oklahoma this morning, with skies ranging from LIFR across
southeast Oklahoma to VFR across much of western and northern
Oklahoma. This complicated ceiling scenario will persist
throughout the day as a cold front pushes through, with
intermittent reductions to ceiling/visibilities possible until
late afternoon when VFR conditions will prevail everywhere. The
cold front`s arrival this afternoon will also be a signal for
winds to shift to northwesterly and increase to 15 knots.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  56  80  58 /  50  10   0   0
Hobart OK         79  54  83  60 /  40   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  81  57  83  61 /  40   0   0   0
Gage OK           76  49  84  57 /  30   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     76  55  79  55 /  60  20   0  10
Durant OK         80  59  82  58 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...04