946
FXUS64 KOUN 290352
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1052 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 104 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

- Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms
  through next week, with highest chances Monday and Tuesday.

- Humid conditions continue, with heat indices near 100 degrees
  most afternoons.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

As minor wave, MCV, continues to move northeast of the area
anticipate less convection this afternoon as in its wake we are in a
general area of subsidence. A few isolated showers and storms that
do occur will likely diminish or dissipate with the loss of daytime
heating. Generally expect dry conditions overnight, but can not rule
out an isolated shower/storm. Best chances, if you can call them
that, will be across north central and southwest Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

This scenario will continue on Sunday as hot and muggy conditions
continue. Again can not rule out some isolated convection, but
generally dry conditions are expected during the daytime hours.
Although anticipate some cloud cover, Sunday will be one of the
hotter days with highs across the area in the middle and upper 90s
with heat indices around the century mark.

By Sunday evening as the high settles farther south a shortwave
trough will move out into the Plains and with it an increased chance
of more widespread showers and thunderstorms, especially across the
north Sunday night. As the main wave moves through the northern
Plains an associated surface front will slide south into the state
on Monday and will be the focus more additional convective
development Monday afternoon across much of the area. Although
widespread severe is not expected, with the abundant moisture in
place and sufficient instability by late in the day, a few strong to
severe storms appear possible, along with some isolated areas
of heavy rainfall.

This front will stall across the area on Monday and remain in place
Monday night into the day Tuesday. This front will continue to be a
focus, along with possible multiple outflow boundaries, for
additional shower/storm development. This precip and associated
widespread cloud cover should keep temperatures down at least a few
degrees, especially by Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Shower and storm chances will continue into midweek as the cold
front washes out and eventually dissipates over the area. The
upper ridge is then forecast to reposition itself to our
southeast mid to late next week, which will leave us with fairly
nebulous forcing over the area. This will most likely bring a
reduction in shower/storm activity but not a total removal of
rain chances with a moist and weakly capped airmass still in
place.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR category remains forecast to prevail through the upcoming
period. An ongoing complex of thunderstorms across southwest
Kansas may impact the KWWR terminal after 07 UTC Sunday morning,
though confidence in maintenance is low enough to promote only
PROB30 mentions at this time.

Additional chances for rain/thunder will remain the main concern
on Sunday, with renewed development possible across northern into
central Oklahoma towards the end of the period.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  94  74  92 /  10  10  20  40
Hobart OK         75  97  72  95 /  10  10  30  30
Wichita Falls TX  76  96  76  94 /  10  10  10  30
Gage OK           72  96  68  90 /  30  10  50  20
Ponca City OK     73  94  69  91 /  20  20  50  30
Durant OK         75  95  76  95 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...09