Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 201118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
618 AM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021


For the 12z TAFs:

MVFR conditions are going to stick around a little the morning
and perhaps a couple hours into the afternoon. Skies will start
clearing out later today with VFR conditions returning. Wind
speeds will be somewhat breezy this morning/early afternoon from
the north, but those wind speeds will really relax later this
afternoon. In fact, wind speeds may be light and variable late
this afternoon/early evening and through the overnight hours.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 AM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...

The Canadian airmass settling across the Southern Plains will
linger around a little longer before it starts sliding east
tonight. This will result in continued subfreezing temperatures
through early this morning (~10am) and then again tonight.

The cold front which ushered in the Canadian airmass is now well
south of the Panhandles. Behind the front, somewhat breezy wind
speeds will continue today at 20-25 mph with occasional gusts
around 30-35 mph. Additionally, low clouds are expected through
early this afternoon. High pressure will continue to build in
today with the cold airmass, and eventually the dry air will "win
out" with skies clearing later today. By tonight, we will see
this surface high center start to slide east of the Panhandles,
but not before another round of subfreezing temperatures impacts
the Panhandles. Both a Hard Freeze Warning and a Freeze Warning
will be in effect again tonight.


LONG TERM (Tomorrow through Monday)...

Temperatures will recover into the 50s Wed as high pressure
shifts east and southerly flow quickly resumes. A very complicated
upper level pattern consisting of multiple split flows in the
jets, troughs in the east and west with strong zonal flow across
the southern third of the country between will be in place across
the CONUS. The closed H5 upper level low within the WRN trough will
track east from NV and weaken rapidly through Thu only to be
replaced by another trough in CA. Moisture will be drawn north and
models continue to show strong H85-H7 theta-e advection and a
saturated SFC-H7 layer by Thu morning. This should lead to lots of
grudge consisting of low stratus and even areas of drizzle and
possibly even some light rain across w/ upslope flow and even
some isentropic upglide in the 285-300k layers Wed night into Thu.
The GFS continues to show a brief period of very minimal elevated
instability above the cool near surface stable layer that could
lead to a few SHRA as well, but this signature is less pronounced
than what was shown yesterday. QPF should be minimal, but did
include a slt chc POP for potential of getting a hundredth or
two. The clouds will likely remain all day in the east strongly
holding temps down in that area.

On Friday, the main wave is forecast to come across the plains.
Expect more AM low clouds and possibly drizzle and fog, esp in the
east again. There is a pretty pronounced cap and moisture depth
is more limited in the wake of the disturbance Thu and the NBM is
very stingy on POPs for Fri. That said, am not comfortable with no
POP mention in the east and north as the GFS does show the cap
eroding along a frontal boundary moving in the area. If the GFS is
correct, we couldn`t rule out a few severe storms given adequate
shear and CAPE, but but again this is predicated on the cap
breaking and a lot has to come together for that. The weak front
will move across the area Fri night but winds will already be
turning southerly by Sat aftn.

Looks like winds will increase significantly out of the SSW Sun
and Monday as the next trough develops in the WRN US. This may
lead much warmer temps and a fire weather concern to end out the
forecast period.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for the
     following zones: Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hansford...
     Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Roberts...

     Hard Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Wednesday
     for the following zones: Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...
     Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Collingsworth...Donley...Gray...

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for
     the following zones: Armstrong...Collingsworth...Donley...

OK...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for the
     following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

     Hard Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Wednesday
     for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.


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