Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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616
FXUS64 KAMA 210410
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1010 PM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for all three terminals for the 06Z
TAF period. Winds will be light through about 18Z Thursday when
winds will pick up out of the south at around 20 kts sustained,
with gusts around 30 kts. Some mid level clouds may be present
around sunrise Thursday. KGUY has a chance to see directional LLWS
with surface winds out of the S to SE and winds just aloft out of
the SW through most of the morning Thursday. KAMA may see some
LLWS as well around 10Z, however confidence is low at this time
therefore have left out of the TAFs and will amend if needed.

Hoffeditz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued Issued by National Weather Service
Albuquerque NM/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
Southwest flow with fair skies will dominate the Panhandles
through Friday morning. Breezy conditions are expected over the
region Thursday and Friday afternoon ahead of a stout trough
moving through the Southwestern US and into the region Friday
night. Temperatures Thursday will be pleasantly with highs in the
low 60s south and low 50`s towards the NM/OK border. Temperatures
tonight and Thursday night will be the lowest in the northwest
areas as fair skies and snow covered ground will allow
temperatures to dip down into the mid-teens tonight and the mid
20s on Thursday night.

Friday will be a transition days the aforementioned trough begins
to push into the region late Friday night. Initially it will be a
rain snow mix late Friday night in the northwest with all rain
elsewhere in the area. Models are hinting at some lower-end CAPE
values late Friday night as the low begins to move through the
area, thus a slight chance of thunderstorms was added to the
southeastern zones late Friday night/early Saturday morning.

LONG TERM...
The upper and surface lows will cross the Panhandles Saturday.
Models all agree on this, but the devil is in the details. ECMWF and
CMC certainly more bullish on QPF. Then there is the rain/snow line
to deal with. Northwest zones will be all snow and southeast zones
all rain, with a mix in between, including north of AMA. Additional
snow amounts Saturday morning will be on the order of 1 or 2 inches
over the far northern areas, under an inch just south of there. I-40
should escape any accumulation of snow. Precipitation will diminish
Saturday afternoon with rain showers confined to the northeast.
Winds will will be cranking up during the day, making the chilly
temperatures feel even colder.

Beyond that we are looking at a dry forecast from Saturday night on.
Zonal flow Sunday and Monday will turn northwest Tuesday and
Wednesday as a short wave trough goes by to the north. There will be
a potent cold front racing south through the forecast area Tuesday
night. Warming temperatures Sunday into Tuesday will trend back down
Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER...
In the short term, any elevated to locally near-critical
conditions will be possible over the southwestern portions of the
forecast area Thursday. Minimum RH values are expected to dip into
the upper teens as winds become gusty in the afternoon. Overall,
most areas will remain shy of red flag criteria due to a
combination of normal to above normal fuel moisture as well as
winds remaining slightly below RFW criteria. RH values will
slightly increase on Friday, limiting fire weather concerns.

Further out, fire weather concerns will be limited to Saturday
afternoon in the southeast quarter of the forecast area. Elevated
to near critical conditions will be possible. If wetting
precipitation occurs prior to this, chances will be slim or none.
Strong cold air advection should keep relative humidities above 20
percent.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

36/3



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