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000
FXUS64 KAMA 161118
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
618 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...
VFR condition will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Winds will be mainly out of the south 10-15kts, may see
some 20kt gusts from 15-03z. FEW-SCT 15-25kft clouds for the TAF
period. Right now confidence is too low to note thunderstorms at
any TAF sites, but be on the lookout for updated TAFS, as the
chances may increase, mainly for KDHT and/or KGUY.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Current observations across the areas early this morning already
shows dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s. With low
level moisture in place in conjunction with an outflow boundary
moving slowly to the east along with weak H700 theta-e advection,
this has allowed some isolated showers and some low topped
thunderstorms to develop across portions on the central
Panhandles. A more organized cluster at the KS/OK line is very
slowly moving to the SE given the weak surface flow. Best chance
of a lingering shower will be across the OK Panhandle but should
not last too much past sunrise.

The heat is on across the Panhandles through the rest of the week.
For today, southwest surface winds of 10-15 kts will pick up later
this afternoon with downsloping conditions will help to warm up
quickly across the region. High temperatures today will range from
the upper 90s to the 100-102 range, especially across the central
and western TX Panhandle with values of 105 forecasted for the
Palo Duro Canyon Floor. Isolated shower or storm may come close to
western Panhandles later today, but is expected to remain to the
west of the region across New Mexico.

For tomorrow, our main chance of precipitation for the forecast
period makes it way into parts of the region. A pronounced
perturbation along a speed shear gradient across the central
Plains will generate a strip of positive vorticity at the axis of
the main perturbation along the ridge roller. This will generate
localized lift for thunderstorms starting lee of the CO Rockies
and move east-southeast throughout the evening hours and may
linger as late as the overnight hours into Thursday before
fizzling out over the central Panhandles. Heavy rainfall and gusty
winds may accompany these storms. Highs on Wednesday maybe a
touch cooler than today if thunderstorms generate earlier on than
the latest hi-res 16/00Z model and probabilistic data suggest.

Thursday through the first half of the coming weekend, the main
H500 ridge elongates west-east and centers just about over the
Panhandle. With dewpoint temperatures rising into the lower to
mid 60s each day, the combined Panhandles may experience Florida
like weather with hot and humid conditions expected. High pressure
over the area coupled with some south-southwest winds 10-20 kts
during the afternoon hours, temperatures will quickly rise with
triple digits values expected for just about everyone Thursday and
Friday and most areas on Saturday. High temps in particular for
Palo Duro Canyon will be in the 104-107 range and combined with
humidity, heat headlines may be needed.

The center of the main H500 high pressure will shift west towards
the Four Corners region towards the end of the forecast period and
with more north to northwesterly flow established, diurnally
driven convection from the high terrain will try and make their
way into the western Panhandles the 2nd half of the day for
Sunday and Monday. Surface winds will wane as we go into next week
dropping our high temperatures back into the lower and mid 90s to
end the forecast period.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                99  72  98  72 100 /   0   5   5   5   0
Beaver OK                 100  74 102  73 102 /  20   5   5  10   0
Boise City OK              98  70  97  66 101 /   5   5  20  20   0
Borger TX                 103  75 102  75 103 /   5   5   5   5   0
Boys Ranch TX             100  72  98  71 102 /   5   5  10  20   0
Canyon TX                  98  71  97  72 100 /   0   5   5   5   0
Clarendon TX               98  73  97  74 100 /   0   5   5   5   0
Dalhart TX                 99  69  99  67 101 /   5   5  10  20   0
Guymon OK                 100  73 102  70 102 /   0   5  10  10   0
Hereford TX                98  70  97  71 101 /   0   5   5  10   0
Lipscomb TX               100  75 101  75 101 /  10   5   0  10   0
Pampa TX                   98  73  97  71 100 /   0   5   5   5   0
Shamrock TX                97  74  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              99  74 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/29