Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 060619 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1219 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

For the 06Z TAFs, some potential for MVFR cigs exists tonight
across the area. Any MVFR cigs should erode early Friday morning.
North winds will continue to diminsh and eventually become
southeast by late Friday afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 538 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019/

For the 00Z TAFs, a cold front will continue moving southward
across the forecast area with gusty north winds in its wake this
evening. Some light rain is also accompanying the cold front,
mainly across the northern zones in the vicinity of KGUY and KDHT.
Expect winds to diminish late this evening. A brief period of MVFR
cigs will likely develop later this evening at the terminal sites.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 300 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019/

SHORT TERM...Tonight...
Surface wave is currently over western Oklahoma Panhandle, with
cooler airmass to its north and northeast.  Surface wave expected
to move southeast during the late afternoon and early evening with
the cooler air moving south into the Panhandles.  On the
southwest side of the developing frontal boundary, dry west winds
of 20 to 30 MPH are being mixed to the surface.  Expect that
boundary will move south through the early evening, clearing the
Texas Panhandle by 9 PM.  North and northwest winds will increase
following passage of the boundary, remaining in the 15 to 25 MPH
through the evening.

Isolated to scattered rain showers expected this evening mainly
across northern sections as potent shortwave trof passes.  Low-
and mid-level moisture remains on the low side, but modest amounts
of elevated instability could support shower development through


LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...

The extended forecast is looking mostly uneventful. Above average
temperatures are expected this weekend with 60s being common in
the afternoon with breezy southwest winds. Temperatures will be
around or below average next week as a few cold fronts move
through, the strongest being on Monday. Some breezy winds are
possible behind the front Monday along with a slight chance for
showers in the far northwest zones.

The general synoptic pattern will start out with split flow at
250mb Friday through the weekend. This will support mostly zonal
500mb flow across the southern plains with very low amplitude
ridging through Saturday. Medium term models are in decent
agreement with the pattern becoming more dominated by broad
cyclonic flow over the central and eastern CONUS by early next
week. There are differences in the evolution of the upper trough
after it comes onshore from the PacNW Sunday, but models
generally agree that the Panhandles will stay on the dry side of
this system. The resultant cold front Monday may be just enough
to squeeze out a few showers in the northwest Monday afternoon.

Another trough is expected to move across the area Thursday and
once again is not favoring precipitation in the Panhandles at
this time as moisture is limited. Differences in the model output
is noted and become more apparent beyond Monday.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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