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000
FXUS64 KAMA 050548
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1248 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Rain chances continue today and tomorrow across the Panhandles.
Heavy rain is possible with these showers and storms and could
lead to flash flooding concerns, especially for areas that have
been inundated with rainfall as of late. Below average
temperatures are expected today and tomorrow.

A weak upper level wave remains over the Southern Plains today and
is aiding in developing thunderstorms across the Panhandles from
this morning into early this afternoon. The upper level flow
remains very weak and is nearly identical to a typical mid summer
type wind profile. This is leading to very slow storm motion and
the cores of the thunderstorms are struggling to maintain
themselves. Isolated thunderstorms have been collapsing and
pushing out outflow boundaries so far today and that trend is
likely to continue with the isolated storms. Storms may become
more scattered across the central and west later today, similar to
what is currently ongoing across the east. Given the
aforementioned weak wind fields, weak shear remains over the area
and CAPE values are lower today. Widespread severe weather is
currently not expected this afternoon. Heavy rainfall will
continue to a problem with the PWAT values still remaining around
the 90th percentile combined with the slow storm motion.
Temperatures will max out in the low 70s today.

An upper level low pressure system will move onshore across
southern California on Monday. Even with this system moving
onshore, the synoptic pattern over the Panhandles will not change
much. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected
during the afternoon and evening hours. These storms will continue
to be slow moving and could produce very heavy rainfall once
again. High temperatures will be in the 70s across the area.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through next
weekend across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. With relatively
weak flow aloft remaining across the area through the work week,
thunderstorms that form will continue to move quite slowly across
the area. Moisture will still be prevalent throughout the column,
so heavy rainfall will continue to be a hazard with the storms
this week. Temperatures will remain below average through the long
term period, but may start to warm back up into the 80s by late
week into next weekend.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

Currently VFR conditions hold at all TAF sites, and while MVFR to
possible IFR conditions are certainly possible, timing them at the
TAF sites would be very challenging, given the pop up nature of
potential showers/storms. For now have continued with overnight
VCSH at all sites as there are some pop up returns on radar. If
storms do manage to pop up in a terminal area, then TEMPO groups
could be needed, as they will be slow moving and timing
arrival/departure of storms would be very difficult to hold.
Further TAF packages could certainly have TSRA from 12z Mon
through 06z Tue, but again they will likely need TEMPO groups to
account for slow storm motion.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                55  77  58  78 /  30  20  30  40
Beaver OK                  56  81  58  82 /  20  10  10  20
Boise City OK              50  75  55  78 /  20  20  30  40
Borger TX                  57  82  60  83 /  20  10  30  30
Boys Ranch TX              55  78  58  80 /  30  20  40  50
Canyon TX                  54  77  57  78 /  30  20  40  50
Clarendon TX               57  77  58  78 /  30  20  20  30
Dalhart TX                 51  75  55  77 /  20  20  40  50
Guymon OK                  53  78  57  80 /  20  10  20  20
Hereford TX                54  78  57  79 /  20  20  40  50
Lipscomb TX                56  81  57  81 /  20  10  10  20
Pampa TX                   55  79  58  80 /  20  20  20  30
Shamrock TX                58  80  59  81 /  20  20  10  30
Wellington TX              59  81  61  81 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...89