102
FXUS64 KAMA 081127
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
527 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1126 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected on
Monday. Obey all burn bans and practice fire safety to avoid
starting a fire.

Potentially impactful rain chances are in place for the end of
next across portions of the combined Texas and Oklahoma
panhandles. Very low end chances for snowfall exist at this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Breezy winds and mid level cloud cover has led to very warm
temperatures to start the morning across the Panhandles.
Temperatures are ranging from the mid 40s up to the mid 60s across
the region. Have updated morning lows based on current obs and
expected trends. Cloud cover should clear out later this morning
but with temperatures already way on the warm side, have gone with
higher afternoon highs today. The rest of the forecast remains on
track for today.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

A weak shortwave trough exits the Great Plains and enters into the
panhandle region of Texas and Oklahoma tonight. Minor fluctuations
in mid level flow are expected and will allow surface winds to flip
northerly today. A small surge of moisture is still expected
tonight, but increased cloud coverage may be the only outcome. Cloud
bases may not be low enough for meaningful precipitation to reach
the ground, even if moisture is sufficient tonight. At this point,
we cannot rule out sprinkles falling somewhere in the southern Texas
Panhandle overnight. However, the coverage area remains 10% at best.
A slight reduction in high temperatures can be expected across the
CWA today, though most areas will still easily reach the 70`s.

Monday, warm air advection resumes across the region. Temperatures
will climb into the upper 70`s with high chances (>70% according to
19Z NBM probabilities) for locations to reach the 80`s except in our
far western zones. A tight pressure gradient sets up at the surface
before our next cold front arrives on Tuesday, but it does not have
much upper level support. Strong (20-25 mph) winds are expected
through much of the day until the surface low exits Colorado and
tracks southeast.

Minimum relative humidity values stay low (<20%) both Sunday and
Monday. Light winds on Sunday will hold fire weather concerns at
bay, but the same cannot be said for Monday. At least elevated, but
potentially critical, fire weather conditions are possible on
Monday. Since the event would be largely RH driven, wind speeds are
the X-factor that will determine our maximum fire risk. There are
still caveats to the set up, as the aforementioned surface low will
aid in decreasing wind speeds as it moves into the area on Monday.
If the timing of the shortwave is faster than models expect, winds
will die down in the north quicker; thus shortening the red flag
time frame. Yet, if winds continue to over perform, critical fire
weather conditions may be achieved well before the front and
corresponding surface low move in.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1126 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Cooler temperatures are forecast for Tuesday due to the passage of a
cold front. The strength of the front has increased compared to
previous forecast runs. Many locations in the High Plains have a
better chance of staying below 60 degrees for the day. Wednesday
morning lows will also decrease and return below freezing for
most of the CWA. As the closed upper low in northern Mexico
becomes an open wave and ejects north, the far southeastern Texas
Panhandle is placed on the periphery of the moisture axis Tuesday
afternoon. Some passing showers are possible leading into the
evening, but QPF remains absent and is forecast to stay minimal.

On Wednesday, the upper ridge redevelops over the region and lingers
only for a couple of days before our next large scale trough starts
it`s decent into the southern CONUS. Temperatures should rebound
into the 60`s and 70`s across the area Wednesday and Thursday.

Our next cold front should arrive by Friday. Currently, temperatures
are anticipated to drop back down to average values for this time of
year. PoPs are increasing for this period as well and look to affect
both Friday and Saturday. The mostly likely precipitation type at
this time is rain, since temperatures through most of the time frame
will be above freezing. Our northwest zones will get cold enough for
snow, but there are still uncertainties with the overall temperature
profile. A rain/snow mix is on the table for those areas, but
chances for pure snowfall are low across the whole area.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. Winds will
become northerly at all sites with sustained winds around 10-15
kts. Winds will decrease around sunset and should become light and
variable through the rest of the TAF period. Mid to high clouds
will clear out this morning.

Muscha

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...05