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000
FXUS64 KAMA 182341 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
641 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected to continue at KGUY,
KDHT, and KAMA through late Friday afternoon.

02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...Through Tonight

Northwest flow will remain in place as upper level trough
continues to translate eastward into the MS Valley region. A few
convective showers are possible this afternoon with shallow
post- frontal instability in place. Large dew point depressions
will result in mostly virga and a few sprinkles. Skies will become
mostly clear overnight as a surface ridge shifts into the
Panhandles. The combination of light winds and clear skies will
allow for radiational cooling with temperatures dropping into the
mid 30s to low 40s. A Frost Advisory will be issued for the far
northwest zones where temperatures may drop to around 33 or 34
degrees. May need to expand the advisory east depending on the
track of the sfc high, but confidence too low at this time.

Ward

LONG TERM...Friday through Thursday

Northwesterly flow aloft Friday will allow for dry and warmer
conditions as the surface flow becomes south and southwest to
west. An upper ridge will build in Saturday maintaining the dry
and much warmer conditions. The upper ridge shifts eastward away
from the forecast area Sunday as a shortwave trough approaches
from the southwestern states and Four Corners region and then
lifts northeastward away from the Panhandles by Monday. A closed
upper low will track east across the Great Basin and Four Corners
regions early next week. Surface low develops to the lee of the
Rockies across eastern and southeastern Colorado by Sunday with a
surface trough southward across eastern New Mexico. The surface
low deepens in response to the approaching closed upper low Sunday
with the surface trough sharpening up into a dryline near the
Texas and New Mexico state line late this weekend. The dryline
will mix to near the Caprock by late Sunday as the surface low
tracks slowly east and cold front pushes south into the Oklahoma
and northern Texas Panhandles by late Sunday.

The dryline retreats back to the west Sunday night to near the
Texas and New Mexico state line. The cold front remains quasi-
stationary across the Panhandles Monday as the dryline slowly
mixes eastward. Convection expected to develop along the frontal
boundary Monday afternoon and evening which is expected to
increase in coverage and intensity over most of the forecast area
through Monday night. Unsettled pattern continues through Tuesday
night as the main upper trough slowly advances eastward early next
next week and continued chances for convection Tuesday and
Tuesday night behind the cold front. The upper trough exits the
Panhandles middle of next week as dry northwesterly flow aloft and
subsidence prevails behind the departing upper trough. Much cooler
with chances for precip for much of next week.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for the
     following zones: Dallam...Hartley.

OK...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for the
     following zones: Cimarron.


&&

$$