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000
FXUS64 KAMA 250912
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
312 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2020

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...

Vigorous closed upper low over the central Plains states today
will allow for perturbation to rotate south and east on the
backside of the upper low and across the Panhandles by this
afternoon and early tonight. As the closed upper low tracks south
and east out of Kansas towards northeast Oklahoma and southwest
Missouri and northwest Arkansas, wrap around snow associated with
the strong upper level dynamics will impact the northern
Panhandles by mid to late this afternoon and then spreading south
and east across much of the forecast area early tonight. Similar
to yesterday, strong wind gusts will accompany the approaching
shortwave and wintry precipitation as tracks south and east across
the northwest portions of the forecast area.

Decided to issue a Wind Advisory for the western and central
Oklahoma Panhandle as well as the northwest and north central
Texas Panhandle from 17Z today until 00Z Wednesday. Wind gusts may
approach High Wind Warning criteria especially later today and
early this evening. Patchy blowing snow can also be expected with
these strong winds as the snow continues moving south and east out
of southeastern Colorado and southwest Kansas. The closed upper
low should track well north and east of the Panhandles tonight
with a drier northwesterly flow aloft expected for Wednesday.
Drier conditions and clearing skies should be in store for the
Panhandles later tonight and Wednesday but remaining well below
normal today through Wednesday.

Schneider

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night through Monday Night...

Long term forecast begins Wednesday night with northwesterly flow
aloft in place over the CWA. While heights will slowly build
Thursday and Friday, two weak disturbances should push a cold
front south Thursday afternoon with a reinforcing shot of cool air
Friday afternoon. Have thus only gone with a slow warming trend
despite the expected rising heights and mostly clear skies.

Flow aloft turns westerly for Saturday. Resulting lee surface
troughing over E CO, combined with surface high over the TX/LA
coast, will lead to southwesterly winds at the surface across the
Panhandles. Expect warming trend to increase markedly, with highs in
the 60s likely.

After another mild day Sunday, forecast confidence decreases
Monday as significant divergence is seen between both operational
guidance source and between available GEFS members as a strong
upper low begins to swing across the southwestern CONUS. Multiple
different scenarios are seen involving both the exact location and
timing of this feature, with a completely dry outcome, snow,
rain, and thunderstorms all potentially in the cards depending on
who you believe. In true Panhandles fashion, the only thing to
bank on at this point is that it will get breezy at some point
during the Monday through next Wednesday period.

Ferguson

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFs...

North winds will increase by mid morning at all TAF sites and then
they are expected to increase even more by early afternoon. Winds
are expected to peak out in the 30 to 35 knot range with higher
gusts in the afternoon at all sites. Winds will then slowly
decrease after sunset. Skies are expected to remain VFR, except
for GUY where MVFR cigs may move in toward the end of the
forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible today mainly
across the southwest and south central Texas Panhandle. Strong and
gusty northwest to north winds around a vigorous closed upper low
over Kansas today will allow for the 20 foot winds to increase in
excess of 15 to 25 mph with gusts in excess of 30 to 35 mph this
afternoon into this evening. Minimum afternoon humidities will
only be in the 18 to 20 percent range over the southwest Texas
Panhandle with 20 to 27 percent across the south central Texas
Panhandle. The elevated fire weather conditions will be mainly
wind driven with max RFTIs of 2 and ERC percentiles in the 55 to
60 percent range. Will issue a Fire Danger Statement for the
southwest and south central Texas Panhandle today from 18Z until
00Z Wednesday.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                40  21  43  26  56 /  10  20   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  37  25  44  22  55 /  60  20   0   0   0
Boise City OK              34  18  43  22  52 /  40  20   0   0   0
Borger TX                  41  24  46  26  58 /  20  20   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              42  22  47  23  58 /  10  20   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  42  22  45  24  57 /   5  20   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               43  26  45  24  59 /   5  20   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 39  18  45  20  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  37  22  45  22  55 /  50  20   0   0   0
Hereford TX                43  21  46  24  57 /   5  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                39  26  44  25  57 /  60  30   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   38  23  43  24  56 /  20  30   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                44  27  45  24  60 /  10  20   0   0   0
Wellington TX              48  28  47  23  61 /   5  20   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for the following zones: Dallam...Hansford...Hartley...
     Moore...Sherman.

OK...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for the following zones: Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

11/77