Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 250755
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
255 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday Night...

Today, upper low, currently located roughly overhead, will shift
eastward, with northerly flow aloft and at the surface becoming
predominant. Decent amount of 700/850mb looks to wrap around the
upper low so, as additional perturbations rotate southward on the
west side of this feature, a few showers could occur in the
northeastern Panhandles. Similarly, overcast conditions should
hold temperatures back in the upper 50s to 60s in the northeast
while the southwestern TX Panhandle may break out and take a run
at 70.

Thursday, heights aloft will begin to rise as the upper low
departs to the east. While easterly winds will mute overall
warming potential, we should return to the lower 80s, around
normal for this time of year. Have gone with a 0 PoP given large
scale descent.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

A relatively quiet long term period is expected for the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles. The main story of the extended forecast will
be the increasing temperatures this weekend. The high temperatures
this Memorial Day weekend may be hot enough to break record highs
for late May. Precipitation chances may make a return towards the
very end of this extended forecast.

Westerly to northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through most of
the weekend across the Southern Plains as the upper level low,
which brought precipitation to the area, continues to propagate
east across the eastern CONUS. The warmer temperatures in the low
levels will continue to warm up on Friday which will in turn allow
the surface temperatures to continue to rise, with forecast highs
in the 90s throughout the Panhandles. Latest deterministic model
guidance depicts a very subtle upper level disturbance moving
across the higher terrain in NM/CO and continuing across the
Plains Friday night. If ample moisture is present in the mid to
upper levels, the PVA associated with the disturbance may be able
to produce a few showers and storms off of the higher terrain
Friday night. Deterministic guidance suggests a few showers or
storms may form given this scenario and progress east across
portions of the Panhandles. However, ensemble guidance is all
over the place and NBM PoPs are non-mentionable as a result.
Given the isolated nature of possible storms and the uncertainty
listed above, have opted to stay below mentionable PoPs for now.

The hottest days of the extended will be during the upcoming
weekend for the Panhandles. With H850 temperatures warming into
the mid 30s C, surface temperatures will respond and warm up into
the 90s to just over 100. Current NBM high temperatures with this
forecast have record breaking highs for Saturday, which are up a
few degrees over the previous run of the NBM. This seems
reasonable and only minor tweaks were made on Saturday/Sunday to
account for areas that warm up higher than model guidance
suggests. Heat highlights will likely be needed this weekend for
some areas, with the area of most concern being Palo Duro Canyon
which has recently been 5-7 degrees above the temperature in
Amarillo. For Memorial Day, temperatures will cool ever so
slightly as a upper level trough digs across the western CONUS.
The upper level low is forecast to move across the forecast area
Tuesday night. With sufficient moisture in place across the CWA,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible as the disturbance
moves overhead. The long range models diverge on exact location of
the upper level low early next week, but enough ensembles are
hinting at precipitation chances with this next system, so
mentionable PoPs are included in this forecast for Tuesday night.

Muscha

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday through Monday...

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions may make a return
during Memorial Day weekend across the Panhandles. Hot
temperatures will return this upcoming weekend and dry conditions
are expected with the heat. Breezy to gusty winds will accompany
these hot and dry conditions and may lead to fire weather concerns
during the holiday weekend. The main caveat will be the
conditional state of the fuels given the beneficial rainfall over
the past 24 to 48 hours. A majority of the Panhandles received
over half an inch of rain from this last system, some areas were
not as lucky and only received 0.25 to 0.5 inches. However, given
possible/ongoing greenup of grasses, any fire weather threat will
most likely be more of a IA situation this weekend. Will need to
pay close attention to the impact of the rain this week on the
fire weather potential as we get closer to the weekend.

Muscha

.AVIATION...06Z TAFs...

MVFR stratus will continue to break up west to east over the next
12 to 18 hours with both AMA and GUY becoming VFR. Otherwise,
northerly winds are expected to be predominant at all sites.

Ferguson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                69  47  84  53  93 /   5   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  58  43  80  50  91 /  30  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              67  41  80  50  91 /   5   0   0   0   5
Borger TX                  70  47  86  55  97 /  10   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              72  45  86  52  96 /   5   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  71  45  85  52  93 /   5   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               69  47  84  53  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 68  42  81  48  92 /   5   0   0   0   5
Guymon OK                  68  43  84  52  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                71  44  86  52  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                60  44  79  51  89 /  30  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   66  45  82  53  91 /  20   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                64  46  83  51  90 /  20   5   0   0   0
Wellington TX              68  47  84  53  91 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

77/5


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