691
FXUS64 KAMA 132329
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
529 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 319 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

- Low chances of patchy fog will be present early Tuesday morning
  and again Wednesday morning across parts of the area with
  refreeze still possible as well.

- Snow remains possible Friday night into Sunday with current
  chances sitting at 35 to 45%.

- Arctic airmass arrives Saturday bringing temperatures drops
  that could last through next Tuesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 214 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

As of early this afternoon, latest satellite was still see snow
pack present across the Southern Panhandles. This pack is expected
to continue its slow melt over the next couple of day with dry
weather and afternoon temperatures holding in the 40s. Meanwhile
in the overnight, look for temperatures to cool below freezing,
with extra aid from the snow pack, keeping most locations in the
teens and 20s for tonight and Tuesday night. These below freezing
temperature can cause additional impacts to areas still deal with
snow pack as any wet surfaces will likely refreeze and create
slick surfaces during the morning hours. Secondary to this will be
the potential for fog to be present during the morning hours as
the lack of relatively strong winds and excess moisture from snow
melt does provide the right ingratiates for it. However, current
confidence is not to high on the possibility given that latest
model sounding have not seen a strong temperature inversion
present at the lower level.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

Latest model agreement opens the long term period on rather dry
and warm note with upper-level flow stuck in a more zonal to
northwesterly flow for the period. While this would normally open
the Panhandles up to any activity moving through the north, latest
expectation are keeping the Panhandles dry partially impart from
the upper-level high sitting off the West Coast. With this drier
pattern holding, expect temperature to be on the rise with most
locations back near the 50s and 60s by Thursday and Friday. As we
had into the weekend, however, the upper-level pattern begins to
shift as the West Coast high breaks down thanks to an approaching
trough from the north and a closed low to the south. Once broken
down, model agreement sees these two feature push eastward for a
potential one-two punch of winter activity to the Panhandles. How
the current consensus see this winter activity move in starts with
the remnants of the closed low pushing from the south and aiding
in dragging up enough moisture to bring chances of winter
precipitation (35 to 45%) for the Panhandles. This initial push
will be quickly followed by the northerly trough that has been
projected to bring an arctic air mass to a good chunk of the
United States. It is here that confidence starts to wane quite a
bit, with models struggling with the intensity of the temperature
drop and snow amounts that will present be present as the air mass
moves in. Unfortunately this inconsistency propagates into the
new week, with the only constant being that colder temperatures
will likely hold through Tuesday.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

VFR conditions are forecast with this TAF issuance. Winds will
gradually rotate clockwise from out of the south to out of the
north over the next 24 hours. Sustained winds will mainly stay
around 10 to 15 kts or less. Mid to upper level clouds will move
over the region.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                22  43  21  47 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  20  44  17  47 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              17  41  17  47 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  23  45  21  49 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              20  45  20  48 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  21  45  20  47 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               23  48  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 17  44  16  48 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  18  44  17  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                20  45  20  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                23  43  20  46 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   23  42  21  46 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                23  49  22  49 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              23  51  23  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...05