Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 141053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
453 AM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 453 AM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...Mild Today with Snow Showers Developing along the Continental
Divide Tonight...

Upper high pressure ridge will drift east across forecast area
today.  Ridge axis will be over western Colorado at 6 am, over the
I25 corridor at 3 pm, and then moving into western Kansas by
midnight.  Passage of the upper ridge will result in a day of really
mild temperatures across the region.  Afternoon highs will generally
be 10-15 degrees above average for this time of year.  Winds will
not be too bad across most of the area though they will start to
increase as the upper ridge shifts eastward.  The mountains,
especially south of Highway 50, could see southwest gusts up to
about 40 mph later today and tonight.  The San Luis Valley and the
plains south of Highway 50 could see southwest winds 10-20 mph
gusting up to about 25 mph as the day progresses. Elsewhere, winds
speeds will generally be in the 5-15 mph range.

Tonight, as the upper ridge shifts east into Kansas, the flow of
moisture into the Continental Divide will increase with snow showers
developing.  The southwest mountains, including Wolf Creek Pass,
will see the best potential.  The best chance of snow will come
after midnight.  Elsewhere, not a whole lot going on through the
night.  The eastern mountains could see some scattered snow showers
develop across the highest terrain by morning but it should remain
dry elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 453 AM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Relatively active meteorological conditions anticipated over the
forecast district during the longer term with primary concerns
including but not limited to temperatures, pops/qpf, isolated
thunderstorm threat at times as well as gusty winds and
especially fire weather concerns/issues.

2 upper short-waves(capable of producing accumulating precipitation,
primarily over the Continental Divide and northern sections of
the forecast district) are projected to impact the CWA from
Thursday into Thursday night(including the potential for some
thunder during this time-frame) and then again from later Saturday
into Sunday evening.

The highest potential for accumulating snow(generally in the 1 to
6 inch range) in combination with gusty winds should be noted
over primarily Continental Divide locations from Thursday into
Friday morning and then again from Saturday evening into Monday

In addition, at this time, near critical to critical fire weather
conditions(favoring eastern sections) will be possible(primarily
during the afternoon and evening hours) each day from Thursday
into at least next Tuesday.

Regarding Thursday, latest meteorological trends supported
expanding the Fire Weather Watch northward, therefore have
recently added Crowley and Kiowa counties into the Fire Weather
Watch from Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

Another longer term concern will be the potential for increased
winds, especially from Thursday into Friday and then again from
later Saturday into Sunday night.

Finally, warmest temperatures during the longer term are
anticipated Thursday and Friday, while coolest temperatures should
be realized Monday and Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 453 AM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

VFR across most of the flight area today.  However, moisture from
the Pacific has managed to work into Colorado.  This is creating
some low CIGS over the Continental Divide including LIFR CIGS at
Wolf Creek Pass and MVFR CIGS at Monarch Pass.  Elsewhere, the
moisture has resulted in some mid level clouds and pockets of virga.
Tonight, the flow of Pacific moisture into the Continental Divide
will increase leading to the development of snow showers.  The best
chance of snow will be over the southwest Mountains, including Wolf
Creek Pass, after midnight. The highest terrain of the eastern
mountains could see some snow showers develop toward morning.
Elsewhere, it should remain dry with VFR through the night.  This
includes the KCOS, KPUB and KALS terminals.



Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ228>230-232-233-235>237.


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