527
FXUS63 KICT 041117
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
617 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms developing over central Kansas this
  afternoon will propagate into southeast Kansas this evening.

- After a lull thunderstorm-wise Wednesday through Friday,
  periodic storm chances return Friday night into Saturday.

- Seasonably warm temperatures the next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A shortwave trough moving into the Northern Rockies tonight is
progged to sweep eastward across the Northern Plains today. The
southern extension of the mid/upper trough will impact the Central
Plains driving a frontal boundary southward across the area tonight.
Low level flow is progged to back to an easterly direction across
south central KS this afternoon as a weak trough axis bisects
central Kansas. We continue to see stronger capping across southern
Kansas but a rogue updraft or two may be possible this afternoon-
evening as low level moisture increases late in the day. Better
chances for scattered afternoon storms will be possible over our
central Kansas counties late this afternoon and evening before
propagating into southeast Kansas this evening and tonight as a cold
front settles southward over the area and large-scale forcing for
ascent increases with the approaching shortwave trough. The best
support for nocturnal activity should shift east of our area by
midnight. A moist and unstable airmass will likely support some
multicell clusters with a damaging wind and large hail threat given
relatively modest deep layer shear of 25 to 25 knots. Locally
heavy rain will also be possible given PWATs above the 90th
percentile (~1.75 inches) and deep warm layer cloud depths
(~4000m) across mainly southeast Kansas.

Wed-Fri...A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated in the wake of
the front with above normal temperatures and light winds expected
across the area on Wednesday. The shortwave trough over southern
Saskatchewan/Manitoba on Wed is progged to dig across the Great
Lakes area on Thursday sending another weak frontal boundary
southward across the area. This will lead to subtle downward trend
in temperatures on Thursday with seasonable highs in the 80s
anticipated for most areas. The mid/upper ridge is progged to
amplify across the western CONUS late in the week with northwest
mid/upper flow prevailing downstream over the Central Plains. Our
next chance for storms will arrive Friday night as a subtle
shortwave trough approaches in northwest mid/upper flow.


Sat-Mon...Showers and storms will be possible at the beginning of
the period as we remain in northwest mid/upper flow. A large trough
over the Great Lakes area will help drive a frontal boundary
southward across the area late in the weekend with much cooler
and drier air overspreading the area. With a stationary or
slowly retrograding mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes area,
we expect to see below normal temperatures into the beginning of
next week with only small chances (20 percent) for
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

LIFR cigs were developing across parts of central Kansas this
morning and IFR/MVFR cigs look to develop over southern Kansas
this morning. The low ceilings will gradually rise as the
morning goes on. Meanwhile a frontal boundary will slide
southward with scattered showers and storms expected to develop
along the front by mid to late afternoon. The front will
continue to push southward towards the KS/OK border later this
evening.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ