Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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477 FXUS63 KICT 271905 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 205 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic shower/thunderstorm chances across the region from late tonight through at least early next week, with the highest chances Thursday-Friday. - While isolated occurrences of severe weather are possible, the potential for widespread organized severe weather appears low. - Mostly seasonable temperatures expected the next several days, although Thursday and Friday look seasonably cool. Seasonably warm temperatures possible by late weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 As the previous forecaster noted, the next 7 days will feature a more summer-like pattern thunderstorm-wise, with weaker forcing and flow aloft, amidst increasing moisture/instability. Consequently, predictability will be relatively low on exactly where/when the highest thunderstorm chances will form, as convectively-induced disturbances and boundaries will be the primary drivers. LATER TONIGHT--TUESDAY...Increasing deep warm advection and moisture transport should support scattered showers/thunderstorms across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas. Model soundings indicate activity could be rooted fairly high (~700mb) so available instability should generally be less than 500-800 J/kg. Still, effective deep layer shear around 40 kts may support dime size hail with the strongest activity. TUESDAY EVENING--WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Thinking thunderstorm chances will be concentrated primarily west-southwest of the region over the High Plains Tuesday evening-night, as shortwave energy approaches from the west amidst moderate instability. Held onto 20-30 PoPs over central and south-central Kansas to account for activity getting further east, although we are not expecting severe weather this far east given weak instability. Shortwave energy and/or a convectively induced disturbance over the region could support additional hit-or- miss thunderstorm activity across the forecast area Wednesday- Wednesday evening. THURSDAY--FRIDAY...Thinking thunderstorm chances have a greater potential of being more concentrated/widespread, as an upper trough and an associated surface trough traverse the region, amidst increasing moisture/instability. While mid-upper flow and associated deep layer shear are only modest at best, moderate to perhaps strong instability should support at least an isolated severe thunderstorm threat, along with pockets of heavy rainfall and localized flooding. SATURDAY--TUESDAY...Additional subtle ripples in the zonal upper flow amidst continued rich moisture and strong instability should support continued hit-or-miss thunderstorm chances over the weekend. The latest deterministic runs of the GFS and ECMWF indicate potent shortwave energy and an associated frontal zone traversing Mid- America Monday-Tuesday, which could spark additional thunderstorm chances. However, this is still a long ways out, with high uncertainty. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Fairly quiet VFR conditions are expected through late tonight. By later tonight and persisting through at least Tuesday morning, increasing deep warm advection should support increasing scattered showers/thunderstorms. Unsure on exactly where this activity will focus, so included PROB30 -TSRA at all sites. Limited instability in concert with adequate deep layer shear could support pea-dime size hail with the strongest activity. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ADK