Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 291707 AAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1107 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2013
...Updated for Short Term and Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST
FRI NOV 29 2013
A dry and progressive northern branch shortwave trough in northwest
flow aloft will move across the Upper Midwest tonight and Saturday.
This feature will help push a weak cold front across western Kansas
tonight with light south winds shifting to the northwest at 8 to 12
mph after midnight. Only a few cirrus clouds will move across the
area tonight with mostly clear skies. Overnight lows will be in the
mid to upper 20s.
For Saturday, a pleasant day is in store, with skies becoming clear
and light north to northwest winds becoming light and variable
towards evening. A strong upper level jet will be moving just south
of Kansas across Oklahoma and western Texas with some cirrus
cloudiness. The weak cold front will be pushing into northern
Oklahoma and into the Texas Panhandle by late afternoon. Highs on
Saturday will still be fairly mild and in the upper 50s to near 60.
These temperatures look good from previous forecast and current
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2013
Fairly benign weather will continue through this weekend as a
confluent zonal flow pattern will be in place over the central part
of the country. A weak shortwave trough moving over western Kansas
early Saturday will bring a few mid/high level clouds along with a
shift to northwest winds. Another weak shortwave trough will move
out over the central High Plains on Sunday with similar weather
conditions. Lee side troughing will develop by late Monday as an
upper level low pressure system digs into the Pacific Northwest and
westerly flow aloft increases over the central High Plains.
Temperatures will be around or a little above seasonal norms for
early December through Tuesday.
A lot of uncertainty continues regarding the evolution of the upper
level trough/low pressure system through the middle part of next
week. Ensemble members from the GFS and GEM tend to show a slower
movement as the system drops into the northwest. Beyond this time,
the GFS and ECMWF are in a little better agreement with how the
system ejects eastward while the GEM is a lot faster and deeper. A
cold front should move south into the central High Plains sometime
around Tuesday night or Wednesday as the upper trough drops
southward through the Rockies. Low level moisture will be moving
northward into the central Plains ahead of the front. This could
develop into some light rain over central Kansas Tuesday night but
am not overly confident this will occur. Better chances for light
snow or light rain changing to light snow will develop by Thursday
as much colder air moves south into the central Plains.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2013
VFR conditions will continue into Saturday. A couple of weak and
dry upper level troughs will move across the Plains tonight and
Saturday with only some cirrus expected. A weak cold front or wind
shift will push across western Kansas tonight with south winds of
14-24kt becoming light south towards evening, then shifting to the
northwest at 8-12kt after midnight.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 29 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 52 25 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 57 28 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 54 30 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 48 24 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
P28 52 30 58 30 / 0 0 0 0