Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDMX 032126
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS IOWA INTO TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER EFFECTS
WILL BE REMOVED FROM IOWA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NOTHING MORE THAN
PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY BE
ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
EJECTING INTO THE FLOW AND MO VALLEY.  OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY WILL
BE A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPS. INITIAL PRESSURE TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT
IS ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING TRUE COLD FRONT
WAS JUST ENTERING NW SECTIONS AT 21Z. WINDS WILL GUST TO 30KTS OR
MORE NORTH INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING
SNOW ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED LEADING TO CANCELLATION OF THE ADVISORY.
DOT PLOW AND HIGHWAY CAMS ARE SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY BLOWING SNOW OR
RESTRICTIONS SO MENTION HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.  SOME
WEAK BANDED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS HAVE DEVELOPED UPSTREAM INTO SD AND
MN...BUT THE PHASING OF SHALLOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY
WITH SUFFICIENTLY COLD TEMPS /-12C OR LESS/ IN THE CONVECTIVE AREA
TO GENERATE SHOWERS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE OCCURRING THIS FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A FEW COLD DAYS BEFORE WARMING TOWARD THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS. COLD AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
STATE WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AS AN AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH THE CAA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. H85 TEMPS ALOFT IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. THEREFORE EXPECT A
CHILLY NIGHT WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH SNOW COVER FALLING BELOW ZERO AGAIN. THURSDAY CONTINUES TO
BE COLDER...BUT WITH SOME WARMING ALOFT AND WESTERLY FLOW MAY SEE A
SMALL WARM UP COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. WARMING TREND THEN STARTS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW SETS UP AND
H85 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR FREEZING. JET STREAM LIFTS FURTHER NORTH
TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THERMAL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CWA.
EC/GFS BOTH WARM H85 TEMPS INTO THE +5C TO +10C RANGE FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SITES
TO WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 40S AND
50S LOOK QUITE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME SOUTHERN SITES EVEN PUSHING
TOWARD 60.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FREEZING DRIZZLE AND IFR POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE ENDING BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AND TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS. AS NOTED
IN THE UPDATE SECTION...CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS
DECREASING SO HAVE KEPT IFR CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE EVENING
NORTH...BUT THIS IS DUE TO CIGS RATHER THAN VSBYS. IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR SHOULD OCCUR BY LATE EVENING WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS
AS WELL.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.