Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 292033
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE FORECAST IS GOING AS EXPECTED.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE AND THE AXIS OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BISECTING THE STATE IN HALF.  THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS CLEARING SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST.

A SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO ENTER NW IA LATER TONIGHT...AROUND 09Z
AND PROGRESS ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE BY 12Z.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WOEFULLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THERE
IS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING.  THE BULK OF THE
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS SW IA INTO MISSOURI VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE I HAVE
REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.  THE ONLY EFFECT THE
APPROACHING WAVE WILL HAVE ON THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
TO SWITCH THE WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WEST...AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SKY
CONDITIONS BY 09Z SHOULD BE OVERCAST IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLY THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER TROF AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM
BUT SOME SATURATION WILL OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH PERSISTENT
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT DURING
THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I35 CORRIDOR. SYSTEM WILL DEPART
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE STATE FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE STATE.

THE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL US AHEAD OF WESTERN TROF. THIS TROF
WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEARLY PARALLEL RUNNING
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXIST FROM IOWA BACK INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH OF THE STATE. SOME GENEROUS
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF IOWA
WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF QPF WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SO I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES W TO E THROUGH 00-
03Z. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENTER NW IA BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND CIGS SHOULD GO BKN
MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL AFT 12-14Z.  LOCAL
MVFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP.  FORCING WITH THIS WAVE IS DECENT BUT
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
MINIMAL AND MAINLY ALONG AND E OF A KMCW TO KOTM LINE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB



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