000
FXUS63 KDMX 091135
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
635 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tranquil weather today and Wednesday

- Windy, some rain chances east Thursday. Fire weather concerns
  arrive with dry air behind.

- Much warmer next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

A weak boundary could be seen in surface winds and in satellite
imagery across the north and will only bring with it increased
winds before exiting the area later this morning. Some
instability is present above the cloud layer this afternoon, but
enough dry air is in place beneath that any drops that form
will struggle to reach the ground. Partly cloudy skies will
bring highs into the mid to upper 60s.

An upper level wave to the south will eject northeastward on
Wednesday and bring with it overcast skies. Some uncertainty remains
in precipitation for central Iowa on Thursday. While the bulk of low
level moisture will be tied to the warm sector of this system well
to the southeast, some moisture will accompany a descending
shortwave/PV anomaly that will phase with the closed low in the
Midwest on Thursday and extend some of the kinematics further back
into the state. Ensemble guidance keeps QPF below 0.1" for central
Iowa. Soundings at eastern sites have shallow saturated layer, low
instability, and weak lift. In turn, probability of precipitation
for Thursday may be overdone and will need to be reevaluated in
upcoming issuances. The upper level pattern will deepen and increase
wind speeds aloft over the state, making for a windy Thursday into
Friday. Deep mixing paired with subsidence from the PV anomaly will
aid in momentum transfer of winds to the surface, especially in the
north. Have lowered winds slightly from NBM guidance for Thursday as
ML winds weren`t as fast as populated, but wind gusts will still be
near 40kts by the afternoon hours. The elevated winds will move east
through Friday morning. Aside from the winds, the push of dry air
leads to fire weather concerns for especially Thursday. Red Flag
criteria may be reached where rain fails to fall. A thermal ridge
will arrive for the weekend with H850 temperatures of 8C and above.
Highs in the 80s will be possible ahead of a system sometime next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Brief window of MVFR for KMCW but will become VFR after 13z. VFR
to prevail through the period with westerly winds.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jimenez
AVIATION...Jimenez