Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 302008
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
408 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

TRANSITION ZONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER HUDSON BAY...WHILE A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
LIFT TOWARD THE SRN LAKES. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL
BE CENTERED ON DRY AIR PRESENT OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TIMING OF PCPN INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT SFC OBS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING UPPER LVL CLOUDS FROM
APPROACHING SYSTEM HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WHILE
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS EXPANDING AREA OF PCPN OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN
AND SW LOWER MI. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS CONTINUED TO SHOW
EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN LOW AND MID LVLS (850/500MB RH UNDER 40 PCT)
LINGERING OVER NRN LWR AND ERN UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW AND MID LVL MSTR INCREASING
(850/500MB RH 80PCT) FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS THE CWA TONIGHT...AS
THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SRN MI. 850/700MB QVECTORS
CURRENTLY SHOWING STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH PLAINS SYSTEM
FOCUSED OVER SRN MI INTO THIS EVENING...WITH FORCING LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH AND OVERSPREADING LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL
QPF SHOWING MOST OF THE PCPN LINGERING SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND
THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC...WITH HIGHEST QPF (STILL UNDER ONE QUARTER
INCH) ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32.

OVERALL WILL MENTION RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER NRN MI LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS PLAINS SYSTEM APPROACHES. WILL LEAVE ERN
UPPER AND EXTREME TIP OF THE MITT DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS AND LINGERING DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HUDSON BAY HIGH.
WILL ALSO LIMIT PCPN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS BETWEEN TVC AND PLN AS DOWN
SLOPING FLOW ENHANCES DRY EAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: MAYBE A CHANCE OF THUNDER TUESDAY?

                     ...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

PATTERN DESCRIPTION:

A RATHER DISORGANIZED/LOOSE/BAGGY UPPER AIR PATTERN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING OVER HEAD. ONE SHEARED OUT VORT
MAX WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO EASTERN UPPER WHICH HAS LITTLE TO NO SFC
RESPONSE. MEANWHILE...A BETTER WAVE SLOWLY MAKES IT`S WAY EASTWARD
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL EJECTED ENERGY LIFTING INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN PRIOR TO THAT IN MORE ORGANIZED/STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BE WORKING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...PER LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SHOWING A NICE ARCING SOLID BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS WILL
DROP INTO HERE MONDAY...BUT IT WILL HAVE MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. THE MORE INTERESTING FEATURES WILL ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY. A
STRONGER WAVE DROPS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR THEN...WITH A SFC RESPONSE OF
WELL DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE...BUT
THE SYSTEM WARM FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

DEEPER MOISTURE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC LOW ARRIVING SUNDAY
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN
LOWER...ESPECIALLY NE LOWER CLOSER TO THE SAG BAY. DOWNSLOPING WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ANY DECENT QPF ACROSS NW LOWER. SOLIDLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE SETTLES IN ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LOWER WITH SOME GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...BUT IT WILL
BE A RATHER SLOW PROCESS. A FAIRLY QUIET MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT WAVE THAT IS MOISTURE STARVED. THIS WAVE SETTLES IN LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AS WELL AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
WARM FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT GETS ROOTED INTO
THE BL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIG QUESTION IS MOISTURE...WHICH ATTM
APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO GARNER AND CAPE. THIS IS CERTAINLY GOT THE
LOOK OF SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT WITHOUT MOISTURE...CHANCES ARE QUITE
SMALL. WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE OF SHOWERS RIGHT NOW...AND LEAVE
THUNDER OUT. MAYBE THE NEXT DATA SET WILL HAVE SOMETHING MORE TO
SUGGEST.

HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOW 50S SOUTH (IN CLOUDS) TO THE UPPER 50S IN
THE U.P. (THERE`S A CHANGE). MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60. MONDAY WARMER BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...LOW 60S U.P. AND
MID/POSSIBLE UPPER 60S NRN LOWER. LOWS IN THE 30S.


           ...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500MB PATTERN SHOWING
STRENGTHENING RIDGES OVER THE ROCKIES AND OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND A NARROW BUT DEEPENING TROUGH DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR A MOISTURE STARVED
CANADIAN LOW TO DROP RIGHT DOWN OVER THE LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...DRAGGING H8 TEMPS OF 0C ALONG WITH IT. JUST WHEN THE LOW
TRIES PUSHING EAST...THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC STEEPENS...BLOCKING
ANY PROGRESS. GUIDANCE DISAGREES JUST HOW FAR WEST THE LOW
RETROGRADES...WITH THE EURO SHOWING THIS LOW DEEPENING AND CAMPING
OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND THE GFS SHOWING A BIT WEAKER LOW PARKING
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THAT IS OBVIOUSLY A LARGE ENOUGH DISAGREEMENT TO
BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN POPS/NO POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SO ALL THAT SAID...MOISTURE FIELDS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH
ANY OF THIS. SO WHILE PERIODIC CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED...I`M
PRETTY CONFIDENT WE WON`T BE SEEING ANY WASHOUTS. MATTER OF
FACT...THERE`S A BETTER CHANCE FOR LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE EXTENDED THAN OTHERWISE. SO IT ALL BOILS DOWN TO
SCATTERED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (TIMING BEING THE MAIN CHALLENGE...BUT
NO WASHOUTS) AND TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
CONTINUE VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH BREEZY EAST FLOW ACROSS NRN
MI TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LIMITED PCPN
CHANCES FOR TAF SITES KTVC AND KPLN INTO SUNDAY DUE TO DOWN
SLOPING DRY EAST WINDS. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS IS
EXPECTED NEAR KMBL BTWN 09Z AND 18Z...AS DEEPER MSTR LIFTS INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING PLAINS STORM
SYSTEM.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND PASSING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL KEEP EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
GRADIENT GETS JUST TIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS THE SRN NEARSHORES FOR LOW
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RELATIVE
HIGHER PRESSURE SLIDES IN FOR MONDAY WITH LIKELY LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS SOUTHERLY TUESDAY...REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY
LEVELS...WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ348-349.

LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SWR
LONG TERM...DICKSON/KAB
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...DICKSON


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