282
FXUS63 KAPX 021008
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
608 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers/storms possible this afternoon and evening. Marginal
  Risk for an isolated severe storm, with the primary concern
  being gusty to damaging winds.

- Turning warmer and more humid for the start of the 4th of July
  holiday weekend.

- Next appreciable rain and thunder chances return for the latter
  half of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 212 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Current Overview / Pattern Synopsis:

Closed low / longwave troughing making its way into far NE Quebec,
with primary surface cold frontal boundary moving onto the Atlantic
coast, leaving northern Michiagn on the very fringe of NW flow
around the longwave trough, and between dominant synoptic forcing
mechanisms... which have left the area under quiet conditions at
this juncture. Secondary cold frontal boundary making its way south
and east, stretching from James Bay westward toward the Winnipeg,
Manitoba area. This front will surge south and east into the Great
Lakes with time today, bringing shower and storm chances to northern
Michigan, along with a thicker plume of Canadian wildfire smoke
aloft (limited translation to the surface expected at this time, but
could certainly be a bit hazy at times today).

Forecast Details:

Shower chances will first percolate across eastern upper this
morning due to some localized lake breeze convergence, but largely
northern lower remains dry into the afternoon as highs spike into
the 80s across the board (cooler near the coasts). Two main forcing
mechanisms are anticipated for today`s shower and thunder chances...
ample surface convergence courtesy of westward intruding lake
breezes will drive more robust updraft generation across northeast
lower this afternoon... with particular focus on the Saginaw Bay
region. A secondary area of convection is set to develop along the
front itself across central and southern upper Michigan this
afternoon, which will surge south and east into our neck of the
woods later this afternoon into the evening.

Instability profiles are rather unimpressive overhead, but non-zero
(SBCAPE likely sub 1,000 J/kg). Linear hodographs support a
multicellular mode, and a textbook inverted-V sounding coupled with
ample streamwise vorticity and bulk shear pushing 30kts suggest any
stronger updrafts within any linear convective complex developing
upstream (and in lake breeze convection near Saginaw Bay) will be
capable of strong wind gusts, potentially marginally severe. Should
be noted that instability driving the development of any convection
upstream will be markedly greater than across our Northwoods... and
thus, a weakening, outflow dominant mode is anticipated across
northern lower this evening. Nonetheless, could be a considerably
disruptive stretch of weather for outdoor recreationalists on area
lakes (inland or not), holiday festival goers, and campers as any
line of showers and storms, decaying or not, will likely be
accompanied by a pretty pronounced gust front along or ahead of
them. Greatest risk for this appears to be NW lower, where the best
overlap of storm coverage and lingering diurnal instability lies. As
such, SPC convective outlook has maintained a Marginal Risk, driven
by damaging wind potential, across much of the area for today into
this evening.

In the wake of this activity, a few showers or rumbles of thunder
will be possible into the early overnight, but once the front clears
the area and diurnal instability wanes, conditions turn dry into the
overnight. Cooler and less humid air for tonight... lows range from
the upper 40s to near 50 in coolest spots to the upper 50s / near
60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 212 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Aforementioned cold frontal boundary set to stall out downstate for
Thursday, suppressing shower and thunder chances well south of us
for Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the region amid
ridging folding into the Great Lakes. Result will be a less humid
day across the area before return flow rockets temperatures for the
4th of July holiday and into Saturday. Current 50th percentile MaxTs
remain progged anywhere from the low 80s to near 90 Friday, and
upper 80s to mid (perhaps upper?) 90s Saturday. As stated by
previous forecaster, chances of showers and thunder will again be on
the increase with this pattern, so these MaxTs are more likely to
verify witout disruption from any convective elements. Precip
potential remains uncertain, particularly Friday amid anemic
forcing, but overall guidance trends indicate an increase in shower
and storm potential later Saturday into Sunday as a more prominent
wave passes through the Great Lakes, which should be able to drive
more widespread shower and thunder development across the region. So
while some holiday festivities may be unscathed Friday, Saturday
evening could be a whole different bowl of wax pending the timing of
this more prominent wave. In the wake of this system`s passage,
markedly cooler and less humid air builds as temperatures turn more
seadonable. Will have to watch for lingering snippets of energy to
pass through and drive shower or thunder chances early next week. As
such, more details to come as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Chance for -TSRA/-SHRA this afternoon, mainly after 21Z. Best
potential for brief impacts TVC, MBL, PLN and will introduce
VCSH as a result around 00Z. Could be gusty outflow winds with
this activity, around 30 KTs or a little more, but confidence
much too low for inclusion at this time. Generally speaking, VFR
conditions are anticipated through the next 24 hours. Only
exception would be a drop in VIS from aforementioned TSRA.
Northwest winds expected on Wednesday with gusts around 15KTs
outside of any stronger outflow winds.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JLD