Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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991
FXUS63 KAPX 030631
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
231 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM QUEBEC THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA...AND COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPS HAVE COOLED INTO THE 30S. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS INCREASING CLOUDS NOW EDGING INTO THE FAR NRN PLAINS AND LAKE
SUPERIOR AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE KEY PLAYER IN OUR FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO.

SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THRU MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS OUR CWA BEGINNING AROUND
MIDDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING MID CLOUD AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN SYSTEM...SCT/BKN DIURNAL
CU WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF ERN UPR AND NRN LWR
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE-
WAY TO MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS LIKE
MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN DRY THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...BUT
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THIS AREA. PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE FOR NRN LWR
MICHIGAN AFTER 00Z...AND WILL THEN CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA.

LATEST NAM12 SHOWS AN AREA OF LIMITED INSTABILITY (MUCAPES NEARING
1000 J/KG DIVING INTO WISCONSIN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND CONTINUING SE INTO NRN ILLINOIS AND SRN LWR
MICHIGAN THRU THE NIGHT...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. APPEARS MUCH OF
THIS AREA OF INSTABILITY WILL SKIRT OUR CWA...AND WITH COLD FROPA
OCCURRING DURING PEAK DIURNAL STABILITY... CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE
SLIM AT BEST. WILL KEEP OUR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS POINT...AM NOT VERY IMPRESSED.

SW LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST
AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TODAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL COOL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

IMPACTS: MINIMAL

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN CONUS AS SHORTWAVE ZIPS ALONG EASTERN EDGE OF STRONG RIDGING
SET UP TO OUR WEST. BY THURSDAY...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A CUTOFF LOW...DIGGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AS HEIGHT RISES
PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE CUTOFF WILL ALSO HELP TO DEEPEN SFC LOW
PRESSURE AS IT MOVES SE OUT OF THE STATE. ANOTHER H5 CUTOFF LOW WILL
MOVE INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...REACHING
SOUTHERN CA/NV FRIDAY. THIS SETS UP AN OMEGA BLOCK...BUT IT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
CANADA...FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE AND PHASING WITH THE EASTERN
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: TIMING THE EXIT OF RAIN WEDNESDAY.

ASSOCIATED WEATHER: RAIN WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS STILL LOCATED OVER LAKE MI...THERE WILL
STILL BE SOME PVA/WAA SUPPORTING QG ASCENT...THOUGH THIS WILL WEAKEN
AS THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS. DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORT WILL ALSO WANE AS
COLD DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH A BRIEF SHOT
OF SUB-ZERO H8 TEMPS. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WEDNESDAY...SO THE CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD.
THE COLD AIR FILTERING IN WILL BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL START BUILDING INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING
TEMPS THURSDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

EXTENDED... (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE SIT UNDER
STRONG RIDGING. THE NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL LIKELY ARRIVE
SATURDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY FLATTENS THE RIDGING AND BRINGS SOME RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...ONCE AGAIN
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN CUTOFF LOW TO START
MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL PASS WELL TO
OUR WEST MID-WEEK...BUT WITH A PROLONGED STRETCH OF GOOD RETURN
FLOW...PWAT VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED BY THIS TIME...AND A BIT MORE
EASTERLY TRACK COULD BRING DECENT RAINS. THIS IS A BIT OUTSIDE OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT WARRANTS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SCT CU REMAINS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN BUT WILL GRADUALLY FADE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

ON TUESDAY...A QUICK MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL
SWING DOWN THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
INITIALLY...MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. BUT THERE WILL BE A NARROW AXIS OF LOWER
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THAT SWING DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...A
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION AND MAY LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS...LIGHT TONIGHT INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 1O KNOTS ON
TUESDAY WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING A BIT MORE GUSTY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN JUST UNDER SCA CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT DESPITE SOME TIGHTENING OF THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
TO SCA CRITERIA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL CAA COMMENCES IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THRU THIS
MORNING BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FROM NW TO SE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...MLR



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