Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 221903

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
303 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Tonight and Sunday...

Over lake instability wanes tonight as warm air advection continues,
leading to partly cloudy conditions. Short wave evident over the
northern Rockies this afternoon moves across northern sections of
the forecast area Sunday afternoon. This weak and moisture starved
system may lead to isolated to scattered rain showers Sunday
afternoon (better coverage across northern zones). Lows tonight
ranging from the lower 30s to the lower 40s. Highs Sunday under
thickening and lowering clouds ranging from the upper 40s north to
the upper 50s south.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Sunday night through Tuesday...

High impact weather potential: None

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Rather amplified flow regime heading through the beginning stages of
next week, with our area dominated by cool northwest flow between
slow to depart Canadian Maritimes low pressure and upper level
ridging equally as slowly building into the Plains/Canadian
Prairies. Low amplitude wave embedded within this flow regime will
be exiting stage right rather quickly Sunday evening, with just
enough cold air in its wake to entice some lake response heading
into Monday. Cool high pressure set to follow, building overhead
Monday night and Tuesday.

Primary forecast concerns:

Cloud and temperature trends through the period. Addressing Sunday
night and Monday light shower potential.


As mentioned, shortwave trough looks to exit quicky east of our area
Sunday evening, with attendant scattered light shower activity doing
the same. Attention then turns to one of lake processes overnight
Sunday into Monday as post-system caa regime once again sends H8
temperatures to a few degrees below zero. Much like this past event,
simply not a ton of moisture or synoptic forcing to be had, but also
like this last event proved with early season lake processes, sure
doesn`t take much to drum up at least some light shower activity.
Really like the idea set forth by previous forecaster, keeping some
low end shower threat right through Monday afternoon in favored
northwest flow areas (this despite no guidance showing such
activity). Also like the more pessimistic cloud idea, as combination
of those weak lake contributions and diurnal processes should tend
to keep conditions a bit cloudier Monday than most guidance would

High pressure builds overhead Monday night and Tuesday which should,
at least theoretically, put an end to any lake induced showers.
Will keep it dry both periods under partly cloudy skies (although
higher level clouds could be on the increase later Tuesday well
ahead of next developing system).

A seasonably cool period of weather, with highs both Monday and
Tuesday generally in the 40s and lower 50s and overnight lows in
the 30s and 40s.


Extended (Tuesday night through Saturday) issued at 300 PM EST
SAT Oct 22 2016

Models now showing ridging over the rockies in the 500mb pattern
building a bit in the extended...allowing the troughing over the
great lakes and Ohio valley to deepen. This may allow easier access
to colder air when a surface low develops over the central plains
and deepens as it sets aim on Michigan. So my current quandary
is...wondering if temps are too warm (which would call for all rain)
but if lowered would bring some snow into play.  Alas, I think it`s
too early to make any bold will ride with what blended
solutions provided. For sensible weather...most solutions are in
agreement with precip chances overspreading the CWA on
Wednesday...and sticking around through Thursday evening. A
secondary low, albeit weaker, shoots through toward the end of the reinforce unsettled weather, cooler air and possibly set
up a better lake effect regime. So again...grids will show going
from near climo to above for Friday and Saturday (MaxT`s low to mid
50s, MinT`s @40ish) but my gut tells me this is too warm.



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Perhaps a little leftover lake induced mvfr cig at apn early on,
otherwise vfr cigs/vsbys through the taf period. The exception
may be a mvfr cig toward the end of the taf period at pln as a
trough approaches from the north.


Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Northwest winds will back into the west this evening then become
fairly light and variable overnight. North northwest winds will then
pick up some and become a little gusty Sunday night into Monday. It
looks like it will be a close call on small craft advisories so will
let later shifts decide on possible headlines.




SHORT TERM...Sullivan
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