Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 261738
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1238 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY. MILDER AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. MILD
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR THAT IS DUE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

WHILE THE WEATHER OVERALL IS VERY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA...THERE ARE
SOME NEAT MESOSCALE PHENOMENA ONGOING...ESPECIALLY UP NEAR
CHARLEVOIX COUNTY WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS RESULTED IN THE
FORMATION OF A NOTABLE VORTEX THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. NOT MUCH OF
ANY IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE...OTHER THAN A BRIEF UPTICK IN
"HEAVIER" SNOW FLURRIES...WITH GOV/CAD NOTING 2SM VISBYS WITHIN
SOME BIGGER FLAKES...ENHANCED BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION DOWN LOW
WRAPPING INTO THE MESOSCALE LOW. NOT GOING TO GO CRAZY AND ADD ALL
SORTS OF POPS DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW SPOTS PICK UP A
VERY FLUFFY HALF INCH...AS THIS IS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AFTER ALL AND
THE IMPACT WILL BE VERY LOW...IF ANY. BUT...DO NOTE THAT A FEW
PERIODS OF ENHANCED FLURRIES CAN AND WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LOWER) THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A NICE QUIET DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ARCS FROM QUEBEC
BACK THROUGH THE GREAT STATE OF MICHIGAN ...INTERRUPTED OF COURSE
BY OUR TYPICAL THERMALLY-INDUCED LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING IN
PLACE OVER EACH OF THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AXES WITHIN THIS SETUP...AND MORE THAN LIKELY THERE IS
A SMATTERING OF WEAKLY BANDED LAKE SNOW SHOWERS RESIDING OVER THE
WATER...AND INDEED AT TIMES WE CAN SEE THESE SHOW UP ON RADAR.
HRRR/HI-RES WRF RUNS UTILIZED HEAVILY TO TRY TO FIGURE OUT JUST
WHERE THESE MAY END UP THROUGH THE DAY...BUT OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD TRY TO KICK THESE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTY AS WELL AS WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...WITH
PERIODIC FLURRIES SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MANY OTHER AREAS SIMPLY
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE CLOUD DECK SITS SQUARELY IN THE -12C TO
-14C RANGE. SPEAKING OF CLOUDS...HAVE MY DOUBTS WE WILL SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ANY SUNSHINE SIMPLY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
INVERSION ALOFT...THOUGH LIGHT FLOW AND "HEATING" DOWN LOW MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TEAR A FEW HOLES IN THE OVERCAST. SIMPLY PUT...A REALLY
NICE WEATHER DAY (MINUS THE COLD) FOR PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL -
TRULY SOMETHING TO BE THANKFUL FOR!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

OVERVIEW: ON THE LARGE SCALE...WELL ADVERTISED DEEP TROUGH SPANS
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION THIS MORNING WITH SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. REX BLOCK IS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A CUT-
OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF MIGRATING TOWARD THE PAC NW. VERY STRONG
UPPER JET ENERGY SPANS FROM THE PAC NW DOWN INTO THE GULF THEN
BACK UP THE EAST COAST...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. STRONG UPPER JET HELPING TO
DRIVE A DEEPENING COASTAL STORM IN THE MID ATLANTIC THAT WILL
BRING SOME WEATHER HEADACHE TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL PERIOD. UPSTREAM...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING SFC LOW
IS ADVANCING SE INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING DRIVING A SMALL
BATCH OF SNOWFALL INTO IOWA. THAT SYSTEM LOOKING TO POSE NO THREAT
TO NRN MICHIGAN... PASSING DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

IN THE GREAT LAKES...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE/WEDGE OF DRY AIR SPANS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF THIS MORNING. STILL ABUNDANT LOW
LAKE CLOUDINESS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE UPPER MICHIGAN HAS
CLEARED OUT TO GOOD EXTENT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN SOME
SPOTS. BUT OTHERWISE...DESPITE GOOD OVER WATER INSTABILITY...LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP HAS REALLY DWINDLED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS THANKS
TO THAT DRY AIR AND WEAK FLOW. BUT SOME WEAKER SW FLOW LAKE INDUCED
PRECIP IS SHOWING BACK UP ON RADAR UP ACROSS LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY INTO
THE TIP OF THE MITT AS WELL AS JUST OFFSHORE INTO LAKE MICHIGAN.

TODAY...WEAK-ISH HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF NRN MICHIGAN`S WEATHER THROUGH TODAY. STILL ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS TODAY...ALTHOUGH OVERALL WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST A BIT PROBLEMATIC. SOME HINT IN HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(AND SUPPORT IN OBS) OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ACROSS
NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NRN LAKE HURON...AND MAY EVENTUALLY SUSTAIN
SOME BETTER ORGANIZED LAKE CONVECTION THAT MIGRATES INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN/STRAITS AS WELL AS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. WILL
KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES GOING FOR THOSE AREAS ALTHOUGH LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS/WEAKER FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER TODAY ACROSS THE CWA ALSO A
BIT TRICKY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SPANS LOWER MICHIGAN AT THE
MOMENT. BUT WEAK FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUCCEED IN PUNCHING
SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. WILL
SEE HOW THAT GOES.

TONIGHT...ONE MORE PUSH OF COLD AIR TO GET THROUGH. UPPER TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL DIG DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED PULSE OF
QG-ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES INTO THE REGION AND WILL
BRING INCREASING SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE THERE MAY BE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE BUNCH WITH
THIS SYSTEM...A FEW INCHES AT BEST BY MORNING. BUT ENOUGH TO
PERHAPS CAUSE SOME MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ALONG THE BATTLE
GROUND BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND MILDER AIR TO THE SOUTH.
AS A RESULT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM TIME TO TIME. IT MAY EVEN WARM
UP ENOUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT TO BRING PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THANKSGIVING DAY...THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION AS WELL AS BRISK WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED IN NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AREAS.
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH BUT PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINE COUNTIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION LEAVING
PERHAPS ONLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE FLOW BACKS FROM
NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OFF OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHERE LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW (ESPECIALLY
NORTH) STILL APPEARS LIKELY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS THE
MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW OR EVEN RAIN
SHOWERS (AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PUSH 0 C). BY SUNDAY...ARCTIC AIR
WILL SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION (THOUGH MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING)
WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RENEW NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM
SURGE LIKELY TUESDAY...WITH JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
MONDAY...THE 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S TUESDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT
THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

A TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FIRST THINGS
FIRST...NOT MUCH GOING ON FOR ALL SITES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...WITH CEILINGS FLUCTUATING EITHER SIDE OF 3000 FEET
AND SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS (NO
ACCUMULATION). TONIGHT TURNS TRICKY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO CURL INLAND TOWARD KAPN...WHICH
COULD POTENTIALLY BE SIGNIFICANT WITH A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS THIS WILL BE A
MESOSCALE-DOMINATED AND VERY LOCALIZED PHENOMENA. STILL...THIS IS
WORTH WATCHING CLOSELY AS THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW.

AS FOR THE OTHER SITES...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH EXISTING LAKE SNOW BANDS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN TO BRING A ROUND OF BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. SNOW
THAT FALLS WILL BE OF THE "FLUFFY" VARIETY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A QUICK INCH OR TWO TO ACCUMULATE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL
TURN GUST FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED...SO SOME OF THAT SNOW MAY BLOW AROUND. SYNOPTIC SNOW
WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MIDDAY...WITH
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AROUND TVC AND PERHAPS MBL BASED ON THE
EXPECTED 340-350 DEGREE WIND DIRECTION.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NO MARINE HEADLINES
ANTICIPATED. COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
LAKES AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...ADAM



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