Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 010145
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
945 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH
JUST A FEW MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLAKES IN THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
AREAS OF THE NORTHERN LOWER. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MORE SETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH COOL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY...READINGS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY...WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A COUPLE OF FLURRIES HANGING ON IN NNE 1000-850MB FLOW NEAR
OSCODA...AS WELL AS DOWN GD TRAV BAY (AND LIKELY WEST OF THERE).
HOWEVER...RADAR RETURNS ARE JUST ABOUT GONE. 00Z APX SOUNDING HAD
AN INVERSION HEIGHT AT 4100FT/825MB...AND THAT/S GOING NOWHERE BUT
LOWER TONIGHT. SO CLOUDS AND ANY FLURRIES ARE GETTING
SHALLOWER...AND THAT WILL CONTINUE. DOWNWARD TRENDS ALSO SEEN
UPSTREAM ON MQT. CAN ADJUST WORDING TO FLURRIES IN NW LOWER MI.

A SOLID BUT THIN LOW CLOUD DECK HOLDS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MI.
SOME BREAKS HAVE WORKED INTO EASTERN UPPER...ARE APPROACHING NE
LOWER NORTH OF ROGERS CITY. IN ADDITION...SOME THINNING IS NOTED
IN NW LOWER ALONG THE US-131 CORRIDOR. STILL...HAVE HAD TO SLOW
DOWN CLEARING TRENDS.

SURFACE DEW POINTS ALREADY DROPPING THRU THE TEENS IN EASTERN
UPPER...WHERE SOME CLEARING IS ALSO SEEN. SURFACE TEMPS NORTH OF
THERE IN ONTARIO ALREADY IN THE LOWER 20S. WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS IN
EASTERN UPPER INTO THE TEENS. WILL KEEP READINGS ABOUT GUIDANCE IN
CLOUDIER NORTHERN LOWER MI...AT LEAST FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST APX
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT THE REGION THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON CONTINUES TO
SLINK AWAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF A
COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH 850 MB
TEMPS IN THE -10 TO -12 C RANGE...WHICH IS NORMALLY COLD ENOUGH TO
GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY WITH THE BIG LAKES
STILL ABOUT 10C). HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
(MEAN 850-700 MB RH FALLING OFF TO A BONE DRY 10 TO 20 PERCENT BY
LATER THIS EVENING) UNDER A NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZATION OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS. SO WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON SHORELINES. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES IS
EXPECTED. TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS ALWAYS DUE TO A COUPLE OF
CONFLICTING FACTORS...THE COLD AIRMASS VERSUS CONTINUED WINDY
CONDITIONS AND UNCERTAINTY OVER THE AMOUNT AND TIMING OF CLEARING.
AT THIS POINT WILL LOWER FORECAST MINS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT
REMAIN ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE AROUND 20
INLAND SHELTERED AREAS...TO AROUND 30 NEAR THE LAKESHORES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS OUR TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SWINGING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NATION`S
MIDSECTION SETTING UP STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES AND DRIVING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON.

WHILE A STORM SYSTEM RAMPS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND...RISING SURFACE PRESSURES/HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIDE
ACROSS WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): PRETTY QUIET SYNOPTICALLY...
STILL SOME RESIDUAL LAKE ISSUES TO DEAL WITH EARLY SATURDAY.

NEAR TERM (SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING WITH A NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND
OFF LAKES MICHIGAN/HURON...WHICH SHOULD CONFINE ACTIVITY PRETTY
CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THAT.  CHILLY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES (PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LATE)...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND SOME TEENS ACROSS TYPICALLY
COLDER INTERIOR LOCALES.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL UPSTREAM ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL NUISANCE CLOUD COVER THE ONLY THING THAT SHOULD
DETRACT FROM A NICE DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN INTO
THE 40S.  NO ISSUES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LIKELY
ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS
CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES.  WILL DRY THE FORECAST OUT FOR MIDWEEK.
SHOULD BE A MILD START TO THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT...MAINLY EARLY.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SE...REACHING IL BY LATE SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...BUT LAKE-INDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL BE
MORE STUBBORN THAN EARLIER FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO CIG
RESTRICTIONS LONGER...ESPECIALLY AT MBL...WHICH COULD SEE MVFR
CIGS PAST DAYBREAK SATURDAY. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...SKIES WILL CLEAR.

BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...AND LIGHTER
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST LAKE MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON
NEARSHORE ZONES TONIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING
WINDS BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345-346.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ341.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
SYNOPSIS...KAB
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JPB



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