Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 242031

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
331 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

...Rapid increase in precip chances tonight...then strong winds late
tonight and Sunday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Mixed precipitation tonight...mainly
across Eastern Upper Michigan...causing hazardous travel. Strong
winds developing late tonight and Sunday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Large area of strong high pressure is
centered over the Northern Great Lakes region this afternoon.
Warm/stationary front running from Texas along the southern part of
the Ohio Valley to just off the New England coast continues to
produce a long line of convection along and north of this boundary.
Rapidly deepening low pressure is starting to push NE out of Texas
toward the Mid Mississippi Valley...resulting in a large area of
widespread precip north and east of the low center. Additional
scattered shower activity is developing further NE of this mainly
low and precip shield over far SW portions of the Great Lakes
region. Closer to home...much of our CWA has seen quite a bit of
sunshine this afternoon as skies have temporarily cleared.
However...northern edge of increasing low/mid moisture/clouds from
the developing upstream system has reached our SW CWA...and will
continue to spread thru our CWA during late afternoon/early evening.

As we head into tonight and Sunday...Widespread precip will begin to
increase from SW to NE across 00Z...with our entire CWA receiving
widespread precip by 06Z. Model soundings/temp profiles still
suggest a brief period of mixed precip during the onset across
Northern Lower Michigan before becoming all rain...but a more
extended period of snow/mixed precip across Eastern Upper Michigan
thru much of the event. Precip event itself will be rather quick-
hitting...with precip ending across Northern Lower Michigan by
around 12Z...and across Eastern Upper Michigan after 15Z. Still
expect new snow amounts across Eastern Upper Michigan will be
between 1 and 3 inches thru the event...with up to a tenth of an
inch of ice accumulation possible as well. Will certainly maintain
the Winter Wx Advisory in effect for this area beginning at 06Z.

The next concern is strengthening wind speeds late tonight and
Sunday as the low center rapidly deepens as it lifts northward along
the length of Lake Michigan overnight and thru Ontario Sunday.
Appears that locations thru the Straits area as well as much of far
northern Lower Michigan will see wind gusts marginally reach Wind
Advisory criteria on Sunday. In coordination with MQT...will extend
the Winter Wx Advisory for Eastern Upper Michigan thru 18Z as some
mixed precip will still be ongoing during the morning as the winds
strengthen to Wind Advisory criteria as well. So will handle this
entire event with one headline that will be extended into early
afternoon. For far Northern Lower Michigan...aside from a brief
period of mixed precip during the onset...majority of precip type
should be plain rain with strong WAA taking place along with
strong/deep moisture advection into the region ahead of the low.
Will issue a Wind Advisory for locations in Northern Lower Michigan
along and north of a line from Leelanau county to GLR to PZQ
beginning at 12Z and ending at 21Z.

Temps will be a bit of a roller coaster ride over the next 24 hours
or so. Temps will initially drop off this evening before warming
overnight as strong WAA commences. Temps will then cool again Sunday
morning with some CAA in the wake of the departing low...before
again rebounding into the mid 30s to upper 30s across Eastern Upper
Michigan and into the low to mid 40s across Northern Lower Michigan
in the afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

...A Break in the Action...

Primary Forecast Concern...None.

Short/medium range models are in good agreement that northern
Michigan will be in between low pressure to the north and high
pressure to the south. This is expected to result in decreasing
winds (though still breezy Sunday night) and mainly precipitation
free conditions across the forecast area. The one possible exception
to this is near Whitefish Point where there will be a slight chance
for snow showers Sunday night as a short wave moves through the
flow. Otherwise, it is expected to remain mild through this period
with readings between 10 and 15 degrees above 30 year climatological


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 331 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

Primary focus in the extended remains the late week storm system.
There has been a slight shift southward in the track, as expected
yesterday. It was not a huge shift, and we would still be looking at
a situation of daytime rain transitioning to snow overnight.
Operational guidance has come into a bit of agreement with the
strength and location of the closed upper level low associated with
the system. Can certainly see some weakening comparing the magnitude
of QG forcing over the area between yesterday and today, as both PVA
and warm advection have lessened with the southward adjustment. The
strength of this upper low still seems a bit overdone, and ensembles
certainly have a good bit of divergence with it lowering overall
confidence. I don`t know that this will shift far enough south to
miss us, but I still expect to see a bit more adjustment south with
this as both the upper and surface low weaken some more.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

A deepening area of low pressure will quickly track thru the Mid
Mississippi Valley this evening...along the length of Lake
Michigan overnight...reaching James Bay by 00Z Monday. Widespread
precip will develop from SW to NE across Northern Michigan
beginning late this evening...continuing overnight and then coming
to an end Sunday morning as the surface low pulls away. Precip
will likely be of the mixed variety during the onset...but should
change over to plain rain for most of the event. LLWS will develop
tonight as both surface winds and winds aloft quickly strengthen
around the center of this rapidly deepening system. Surface winds
on the backside of the low will switch to the SW and strengthen to
20 to 30 kts with some higher gusts expected.


MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ008-

WIND ADVISORY from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for MIZ016>022.



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