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000
FXUS63 KAPX 110257
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
957 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL
PERIODICALLY TRAVERSE THE REGION...REINFORCING THE COLD CANADIAN
AIRMASS AND LAKE EFFECT REGIME ALREADY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW AND
COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...WITH WINTRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

FOCUS THIS EVENING OBVIOUSLY CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LAKE EFFECT.
00Z APX RAOB SHOWS INVERSION HEIGHT NEAR 6 KFT...850 MB TEMP OF
-19C...AND THE DGZ DOWN NEAR 900 MB. UPSTREAM AT GRB...SOUNDING
VERY DRY. THE OVERALL SET UP IS NOT BAD...BUT NOT GREAT EITHER.

ORGANIZATION OF LAKE SNOWS ACROSS NRN LOWER HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED BY WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN ROUGHLY 250-280.
AS A RESULT...HAVEN/T REALLY SEEN A NICE STEADY-STATE SET UP...AS
BANDS SHIFT AROUND. STILL...RADAR ESTIMATES (AND SPOTTER REPORTS)
REVEAL LOCALLY 2 TO NEARLY 3 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE 6 PM ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. EXPECT WINDS/BANDS TO SET UP AROUND 280...WITH
SEVERAL MORE INCHES ACROSS ADVISORY AREA - ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF M-68.

THINGS ARE A BIT MORE INTERESTING OVER ERN UPPER. MQT AND MONTREAL
RIVER RADARS SHOW MONSTER LAKE EFFECT BAND EXTENDING FROM JUST E
OF THE KEEWENAW PENINSULA EWD TO NRN LUCE COUNTY AND WHITEFISH
POINT. SO FAR...ONLY THE FAR NRN TIP OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY (AROUND
WHITEFISH POINT) HAS BEEN IMPACTED. HOWEVER...RADAR LOOP SHOWS A
SLIGHT SWD DRIFT OF WRN/CENTRAL PART OF SNOW BAND. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH NAM AND LOCAL-WRF...WHICH SUGGEST AREAS AROUND
M-28 AND POSSIBLY THE SSM AREA COULD BE IMPACTED AROUND DAYBREAK.
THIS OCCURS AS N/NE DRAINAGE FLOW DEVELOPS N OF THE SAULT AND
SHIFTS THE BEST CONVERGENCE SOUTHWARD. WILL CLEARLY CONTINUE
WARNING FOR CHIPPEWA...AND WHILE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL
BE AROUND PARADISE AND WHITEFISH POINT...WILL BRING A FEW INCHES
INTO ECKERMAN...BAY MILLS...AND SAULT STE MARIE VERY LATE TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES. ACROSS NW LOWER...RADAR LOOP SHOWS
ANTICIPATED TRANSITION FROM WSW BANDS TO A W OR WNW ORIENTATION.
THERE HAS BEEN JUST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN OVERALL SNOW INTENSITY
PAST HOUR OR SO...BUT EXPECT AN UPTICK ONCE WNW FLOW IS FULLY
ESTABLISHED - MOST LIKELY AFTER 01-02Z. ACROSS ERN UPPER...MQT
RADAR SHOWS THE EVOLUTION OF AN IMPRESSIVE WNW BAND...THAT WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY IMPACT NRN LUCE COUNTY AND WHITEFISH POINT NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ONGOING ADVISORIES AND WARNING LOOK GREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OVERNIGHT BEING A
TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE HEAVY.
EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT SLICING THROUGH THE
CWA...TIED TO A MODEST UPPER WAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LAKES. QUITE THE NEAT SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE INTERACTION ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A DISTINCT
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW BAND MERGING WITH A COLD FRONTAL SNOW BAND THAT
IS PUSHING ASHORE RIGHT NOW. PER REGIONAL AVAILABLE WEBCAMS...THAT
BAND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES (PROBABLY
2-3"/HR)...WHILE OTHER SNOW SHOWERS ARE FLARING UP IN THE
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AS OVERALL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN FROM
THE WEST...BUT COLDER AIR IS BLEEDING BACK INTO THE PICTURE (NOT
THAT THE AMBIENT AIRMASS WAS AT ALL WARM). THE MAJOR ISSUE FOR
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY REMAINS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS (NO SURPRISE
THERE) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WHAT COULD BE SOME QUITE HEAVY AMOUNTS
IN SPOTS.

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE BASIC SETUP OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME SETTLES IN TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST DIRECTION...ALL WHILE GRADUALLY COOLER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA...WITH H8 TEMPS PROGGED AROUND -22C BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THAT BASIC FLOW WILL TARGET MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN NORTH OF M-72...AND CENTERED ON THE M-32 CORRIDOR...AS WELL
AS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE STRONG LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING
AND LOCALIZED ADDED CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO ENTER THE MIX. FROM A
BASIC PATTERN PERSPECTIVE...THINGS DON`T LOOK TOO BAD OVERNIGHT...AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS CLIMB TO AROUND 750MB AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
CLOUD LAYER SETTLES INTO THE DGZ...BISECTED BY FAIRLY STRONG
LAKE-INDUCED OMEGA. BACKGROUND SHEAR PROFILES UP AROUND 25 KNOTS
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DECENT MULTI-BANDING...AND SEE LITTLE REASON THE
FAVORED SPOTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER WON`T PICK UP BETWEEN 3 AND LOCALLY
8+ INCHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH EVEN A BRIEF BOOST DOWN
TOWARD SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND BETTER
MOISTURE JUST SCRAPE THAT AREA. THROW IN GUSTY WEST WINDS AND THE
FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW...AND THINGS SHOULD GET A LITTLE SLOPPY.
THE GOING ADVISORY HAS THIS IDEA COVERED WELL...AND PLAN NO CHANGES.

EASTERN UPPER A BIT OF A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH STRONG INDICATIONS
THAT ONE OR TWO BIG-TIME BANDS WILL MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN CHIPPEWA
COUNTY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALREADY SEEING HINTS OF MODEST LAKE
AGGREGATE TROUGHING IN PLACE...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD MIGRATE
TOWARD ITS FAVORED LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE...WITH
CONVERGENCE ENHANCED LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH BUBBLE
HIGH/DRAINAGE FLOW OUT OF ONTARIO. THAT SETUP MAKES FOR A
CHALLENGING BAND PLACEMENT FORECAST...BUT LOOKING QUITE LIKELY THAT
SOMEONE UP THERE IS GOING TO CASH IN ON SOME BIG SNOWS...GIVEN
EXCELLENT THERMAL PROFILES WITH STRONG OMEGA BISECTING A RATHER DEEP
DGZ. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL BE WHITEFISH/PARADISE
TOWARD BAY MILLS...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK THAT BAND INTO THE SOO
FOR A BRIEF TIME LATER TONIGHT...JUST BEFORE DRAINAGE FLOW PROBABLY
KICKS IT WESTWARD AFTER SUNRISE. THIS WILL OF COURSE BE A FLUID
SITUATION AS ALL LAKE SITUATIONS ARE...AND CHANGES ARE EXPECTED...
THOUGH GOING ACCUMULATION FORECAST OF 10-18+ INCHES LOOKS JUST FINE
AND QUITE ACHIEVABLE IF THE BAND CAN SIT STILL LONG ENOUGH. TEMPS
SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES OF -10 TO -15F - SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WORTH A
CONTINUED WEATHER STORY/HWO MENTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

OVERVIEW: LARGE/COLD LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER A GOOD
PART OF NORTH AMERICA TODAY BRINGING ANOMALOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS TO
A LARGE PART OF THE CONUS. LONG WAVE TROUGH AND COLDEST AIR FORECAST
TO MODIFY AND RETREAT JUST A BIT INTO CANADA DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND PIECE OF COLD AIR IS
LOOKING TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BOTTOM LINE...THE ACTIVE AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.

IN THE NEARER TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE ONGOING HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO A REINFORCING
PUSH OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY (H8 TEMPS BOTTOM
OUT AROUND -22C WEDNESDAY EVENING). LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW IS A BIT
WOBBLY...STARTING A BIT WNW THURSDAY EVENING AND BACKING WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT. BUT IT ALSO DRIES OUT A BIT IN THE LOWER LEVELS THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WEDGE OF DRY AIR AND A FAIRLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
JUST SKIRTS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP OFF
A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING ITS JUST
A MATTER OF DEGREE. EXPECT DECENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW LOWER
MICHIGAN BY VIRTUE OF THE INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH INTENSITIES WILL BE
THROTTLED A BIT BY THE DRIER AIR AND LOWERING INVERSIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A BIT TRICKIER IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NICE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS/HEAVIER SNOW
BAND STRETCHED OUT FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO CHIPPEWA COUNTY
EARLY ON...BUT GETTING SHOVED BACK NORTH OF WHITEFISH BAY THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS. POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR
SOMEONE TO GET A LOT OF SNOW AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
EXACTLY HOW IT PLAYS OUT. BUT IN ANY EVENT WE ALREADY HAVE A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL NOT
GET TOUCHED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED LAKE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH SQUASHED INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION
WILL KEEP THINGS IN CHECK FOR THE MOST PART. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA LOOKING TO PUSH SUBTLE COLD
FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE NRN PART OF THE STATE...POSSIBLY STALLING
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. THIS MAKES HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR FRIDAY A BIT PROBLEMATIC...HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON JUST WHERE THE FRONT ULTIMATELY ENDS UP. FROM A WEATHER
POINT OF VIEW...NOT MUCH ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF (COULD
SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW). BUT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY AND
WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT THERE IS...WILL SURELY GET PICKED UP AND PUSHED
DOWN THROUGH THE CWA WITH THE FRONT WITH THE BIGGEST IMPACT MOST
LIKELY OCCURRING IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL LAKE SNOWS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE VCNTY OF THE STALLED FRONT...BUT NOT
LOOKING TO BE THAT BIG OF A DEAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY (EXTENDED PERIODS)...DECENT AGREEMENT
OVERALL AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS TO WRAP UP THE
EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. YET ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
CHUNK OF COLDER AIR SLATED TO DIP DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE RIDES THROUGH
THE GULF STATES AND UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY. BUT
SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW STORM SYSTEMS...SRN STREAM ENERGY STEALS
MUCH OF THE ATTENTION AS SFC LOW PRESSURE SPINS UP OVER THE SRN
STATES AND LARGELY RUNS UP THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH BAGGY LOW
PRESSURE AND LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING STRETCHING UP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SPREAD UP INTO THE STATE
LATER SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. BUT AT THIS POINT...IT/S NOT
LOOKING LIKE A BIG SNOW MAKER FOR NRN MICHIGAN. WITH A GOOD AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR STILL AROUND...SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO
PLAY INTO THE EQUATION...BUT MUCH TO EARLY TO WORK OUT THOSE DETAILS
AT THIS POINT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY PULLING ANOTHER PUNCH OF VERY COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION...ALTHOUGH UNCLEAR JUST HOW BIG THAT IMPACT WILL
BE AS FLOW TURNS LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AS THE RIDGE AXIS
DRIFTS THROUGH. BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE/CLIPPER
SYSTEM LOOKING TO DROP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
BRINGING SOME LIGHTER SYNOPTIC SNOW TO THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS ACROSS NW LOWER MI - INCLUDING TVC/PLN/MBL. WEST
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS...AND THE RESULTING
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO REDUCED VSBYS.
APN WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR OVER THE LAKES...RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS RIGHT ON
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. COULD SEE THE OCCASIONAL GALE GUST TO
AROUND 35 KNOTS...BUT NOT REALLY A SOLID GALE SETUP. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ021-022.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ016-017-
     019.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ008.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BS
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...DL
LONG TERM...BA
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...DL