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000
FXUS63 KAPX 100239
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1039 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO PUSH
BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY.
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...BRINGING ONLY VERY SMALL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BEHIND A DEPARTING STRONG CLIPPER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...BUT PLENTY OF RATHER
THICK MID CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO MICHIGAN AS ONE
SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW IN THE
FAST...NEARLY ZONAL 500 MB FLOW. A LOOK UPSTREAM SHOWS LOW CLOUDS
ARE CONFINED TO ONTARIO ATTM. MEANWHILE...LATEST NAM IS STILL
INSISTING LOW CLOUD FORMATION AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...
AMPLE MID CLOUD WILL CONTINUE TO GLIDE THRU NRN MICHIGAN ALL
NIGHT...KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY. STILL EXPECT NO PRECIP FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT...EVEN IF THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
DEVELOP. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 15 TO 25 KTS AS LOW LEVELS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO DECOUPLE...BUT DO EXPECT SOME DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

ALL PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING...
WITH ONLY SOME MID LEVEL RETURNS DENOTING MID CLOUDS LEFT ON THE
LATEST KAPX 88D BASE REF LOOP. LOW CLOUDS HAVE YET TO DEVELOP...
BUT STILL EXPECT THIS WILL HAPPEN DURING THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SE THRU NRN MICHIGAN. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOW
A FAIRLY THICK DRY LAYER BETWEEN INCREASING SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS...STILL EXPECT A
DRY NIGHT DESPITE INCREASING LOW CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR TWO TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
PERSISTENT WAA PATTERN AND INCREASING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT
DIURNAL TEMP SWING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL MAINLY INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

LOW AMPLITUDE NW FLOW ALOFT FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO NEW
ENGLAND. ENTRANCE REGION OF 120 KNOT UPPER JET STREAM DRIVING INTO
THE NRN LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
VORTICITY CENTER AND ASSOCIATED MAIN AREA OF FORCING MOVING
THROUGH ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...A SOMEWHAT TIGHT LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES CURRENTLY...0C
H8 LINE WORKING THROUGH THE CWA PER GUIDANCE FORECASTS. THIS PULSE
OF WARM ADVECTION FORCING HAS/IS PRODUCING A POCKET OF LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE CWA...LARGELY ELEVATED (VIRGA)
ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN PARTICULARLY THE SOO WHERE 0.3 INCH WAS REPORTED THERE AT
2 PM. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FURTHER SOUTH HAS THUS FAR PREVENTED ANY
OBSERVED PRECIP.

TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION FORCING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST QUICKLY
THIS EVENING...ENDING THE LIGHT PRECIP THREAT. THAT/S THE EASIER
PART. BUT WHAT HAPPENS NEXT IS MORE UNCERTAIN. GUIDANCE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS VIA A NEAR SFC BASED SATURATED
LAYER TO AROUND 3K FEET. NO SIGN OF THAT IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM. BUT
INCREASING LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS FROM THE WEST OVER THE SNOW PACK...
COUPLED WITH NIGHTTIME BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING CERTAINLY SUPPORTS
THAT IDEA. GOING FORECAST HAS THAT IDEA AND HAVE NO COMPELLING
REASON TO CHANGE IT AT THIS POINT...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
AND THAT DEPICTED LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS NOT THAT DEEP TO
BEGIN WITH...HAVE REMOVED LIGHT NUISANCE PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST.
IS POSSIBLE FOR SPOTTY VERY LIGHT FZDZ AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT DON/T THINK IT/S WORTH NOTING IN THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

...RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER W/ALTERNATING COLD/MILD
SHOTS...WITH AN OVERALL TREND TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL

LARGE SCALE INDICES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NOW MULTIPLE MID RANGE
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE PACKAGE RUNS THAT AN OVERALL RATHER QUIET
PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. LOSS OF CROSS-POLAR FLOW/MORE PACIFIC INFLUENCES TO BRING MUCH
MORE TYPICAL UP/DOWN TEMPERATURE SWINGS...ALTHOUGH WITH BACKGROUND
RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST CONFIGURATION...OVERALL TEMPERATURE FLAVOR
CONTINUES TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH DEFINITELY NO SIGNS OF ANY
PROLONGED WARM-UP ANYTIME SOON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING RATHER SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

THOSE LOOKING FOR SOME RATHER RESPECTABLE EARLY SPRING WARMTH HAVE
TO LOOK NO FURTHER THAN MONDAY...WITH AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN SQUARELY WITHIN WARM SECTOR OF PASSING ONTARIO CLIPPER.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SPIKE...WITH H8 TEMPERATURES REACHING LOW
AND MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE. JUST HOW MILD
THINGS GET CENTERS ON CLOUD AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TRENDS.
ADDRESSING BOTH REMAINS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ENDEAVOR. MOISTURE
LOOKS TO REMAIN DISJOINTED AT BEST...WITH MORE COHERENT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO CLIPPER SYSTEM.
NAM-WRF REMAINS INSISTENT ON SUB 9H SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND AS
MENTIONED BY OVERNIGHT FORECASTER...IS A WELL KNOWN BIASES WITH THAT
PIECE OF GUIDANCE. MIGHT SEE SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER...BUT FEEL ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO. GIVING WHAT APPEARS TO BE (FOR
NOW) OVERLY AGGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...THINK AT LEAST SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL BE
REALIZED. MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. THIS BRINGS US BACK TO TEMPERATURES...AND WITH ANTICIPATED
WARMING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...DECENT MECHANICAL MIXING VIA SOUTHWEST
WINDS...AND SOME SUNSHINE...STILL KINDA LIKE THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOWING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. MORE CLOUDS/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS LOOKS TO KEEP EASTERN
UPPER JUST A TOUCH COOLER...BUT STILL PUSHING ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
INTERESTINGLY...00/12Z REGIONAL GEM BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS...WHICH
DID EXCEPTIONALLY WELL WITH PAST FRIDAY`S BURST OF MILD AIR...HAS
MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER PUSHING 50 TO THE LOWER 50S...AND DOWNSLOPE
AREAS OF NORTHEAST LOWER MAKING A RUN INTO THE MID...AND EVEN
UPPER...50S (OH BOY!). DOES MAKE ONE WONDER IF MONDAY`S FORECAST
HIGHS MIGHT BE A TOUCH CONSERVATIVE. SURE NO ONE WOULD MIND IF THAT
WAS THE CASE :).

OTHER THAN TEMPERATURES...SIMPLY NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT RIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. STILL APPEARS A DECENT LATE SEASON WINTER
STORM MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKES/OHIO VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER AIR/SEASONAL TRENDS SUPPORTING
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADIEST SNOWFALL REMAINING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. NICE FGEN STREAK OF FORCING NOTED IN MOST PROGS BRINGING
INITIAL ROUND OF SNOWFALL BEFORE MAIN SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL INTRODUCE AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY
FOR LIGHT SNOWS LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG/SOUTH
OF M-55. FLOW AFTERWORDS REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL CLIPPER
SYSTEMS... ALTHOUGH TIMING AND IMPACT ANYTHING BUT CERTAIN. MODEL
CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH INTRODUCES SOME LOW END SNOW CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTH TO END THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AND REALLY CAN`T
ARGUE WITH SUCH. BIGGER NEWS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE ROLLER
COASTER TEMPERATURES...WITH QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR DROPPING HIGHS
WEDNESDAY BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. REALLY LIKE IDEA SET FORTH BY
MIDNIGHT CREW OF SUB ZERO READINGS ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE/CLEAR SKIES SETTING UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. READINGS HOPEFULLY REBOUND SOME HEADING THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME EVIDENCE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
WILL VISIT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

VFR/MID CLOUD CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS BY LATE EVENING AS
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO MOVE THRU THE AREA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE THRU NRN MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...A RATHER THICK
LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
MID LEVEL MOIST LAYER WILL PRECLUDE ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP THRU THE
NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THRU MOST OF MONDAY...
WITH SOME DIMINISH IN LOW CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO UNDER 10 KTS BY MIDNIGHT...AND THEN
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS ON MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...NS
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MR