577
FXUS63 KAPX 130711
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
311 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazy skies and dry weather Today

- Gradual warming trend through mid week

- Next chances for rain arrive Wednesday
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Current satellite and radar shows most showers have moved out of
northern MI this morning. Some clouds are lingering over eastern
upper, however skies over northern lower are becoming mostly clear.
Calm winds and lingering moisture will allow mist and some areas
of fog to form this morning.

Smoke from wildfires over western CAN will move over MI today. A
post frontal environment will bring the smoke and haze down to the
surface. Surface observations in WI/MN showed visibilities down to 2
SM due to haze yesterday. Due to this there is an Air Quality Alert
for all of MI today. Temperatures will be in the high 70s to mid 80s
today with west to southwest winds of 10 mph and occasional gusts up
to 15 mph. Lows tonight will dip into the 50s for most
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A trailing frontal boundary will attempt to move over northern MI
Monday, however building upper ridging and dry southwesterlies will
overcome this attempt - resulting in partly cloudy skies at best.
Temperatuers will be on the climb early this week, reaching into the
high 80s and low 90s by Tuesday.

A weak, convective driven, upper wave will advect deep gulf moisture
up towards the Great Lakes region mid week. This moisture will meet
up with a shortwave rotating through a broad upper trough over much
of CAN and the northern North American continent mid week. A quasi-
stationary W/E front will likely be draped over the Great Lakes
somewhere as a surface high tracks east over Ontario CAN and battles
with southwesterlies. If all of these features align, this could set
up repeated rounds of heavy rain along that boundary (mean ensemble
PWAT is > 1.5") Wednesday into Thursday. The question is 1) if these
features will align and 2) if they will align over northern MI.
Weaker confidence exists in the convective waves path, as things can
change quickly and possible move that to the west or east of MI. If
that is the case, deep moisture will still return to MI with the
shortwave rotating through the broad upper trough - but the window
for repeated rounds of rain will be shortened. For now, we can say
(with confidence) that widespread clouds and rain will return to the
area mid week.  There is large disagreement on the forecast for the
end of the work week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Much of the precipitation threat has waned, with dry conditions
expected through the rest of tonight and Sunday. Brief MVFR CIGs
possible at KCIU over the next few hours, then returning to VFR,
like the rest of the terminals. Winds westerly on Sunday, gusts
15 to 20 KTs. Areas of FU/HZ tomorrow, could drop to MVFR VSBYs
in spots and at times.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Air Quality Alert until noon EDT Monday for MIZ016>018-020>036-
     041-042-086>088-095>099.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JLD