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000
FXUS63 KAPX 071728
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1228 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 502 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ...BRINGING
MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND FLURRIES THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THAT SYSTEM ALONG
WITH A SERIES OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS WILL USHER IN EVEN COLDER AIR FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS...CHIPPEWA COUNTY BAND HAS
BROKEN UP TO SOME DEGREE WITH STRONGEST BANDS NOW OUT NEAR GRAND
MARAIS AND FARTHER NORTH BETWEEN THE SOO AND MONTREAL RIVER. GIVEN
MORE SPORADIC NATURE OF THE SNOWFALL WON`T WAIT UNTIL 18Z TO LET
LAKE SNOW ADVISORY DROP OFF.  MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER IS NICE AND
SUNNY AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY. ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...COUPLE
NARROW BANDS OF BETTER SNOW INTENSITY BOTH EMANATING FROM LEELANAU
COUNTY AND ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG 280 DEGREES. SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS
HAVE BEEN SOLIDLY ABOVE 30:1...SO GETTING SOME NICE FLUFF FACTOR
WITH THIS SNOWFALL THIS MORNING. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF FLUFF
POSSIBLE FROM LEELANAU EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF ANTRIM/OTSEGO/
MONTMORENCY/CRAWFORD COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES NEEDED. STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD
OF MORE ROBUST LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO SWING THROUGH FAR NW CHIPPEWA
COUNTY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME TODAY. LATEST DATA STILL SUGGESTING A
MORE WESTERLY WIND BY AFTERNOON...FOR THESE SNOWS TO JUST SCRAPE
THE FAR NW FRINGES OF THE COUNTY BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

CURRENTLY...COLD AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS ALL OF THE
COUNTRY...OUTSIDE OF THE FAR SE CONUS ATTM...WITH STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIR DRIVEN THROUGH ALL OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S WERE
SEEN IN FAR SRN ARIZONA...WITH TEMPERATURES TAUNTING -40F IN PARTS
OF MONTANA! ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES
AROUND THE NRN GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS FAIRLY DRY...THE LAKE CLOUD/MOISTURE IS
STILL BURIED WITHIN FAVORABLE DGZ FOR HIGH LIQUID-SNOW RATIOS AND
VERY FLUFFY SNOWS. ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH AS HIGH
2-3" IN PARTS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW LOWER...DUE TO THE FLUFFY
NATURE OF THE SNOW...BUT MOST AREAS AT AN INCH OF LESS. ACROSS
CHIPPEWA COUNTY...DEEPER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WITH THE FAVORABLE
THERMAL SET UP...HAS RESULTED IN HEALTHIER BANDS OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWS IMPACTING FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. SPECIFICALLY
PARADISE...TAQ FALLS AND WHITEFISH POINT. A RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD OF
SNOW IS CURRENTLY ONGOING THERE...AS SNOWFALL HAS BEEN MORE "BURSTY"
RATHER THAN A SOLID BAND TRACKING ACROSS THIS AREA. LATEST TRENDS IN
SATELLITE AND NEAR TERM HIGH RES DATA SUGGESTING THAT INCREASED
DRYING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NW LOWER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WHILE MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY HOLD A
BIT MORE STEADY.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DRIER AIR SWEEPING IN OVER NRN LOWER WILL
PRIMARILY BE THE RESULT OF A SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR...RAISING HEIGHTS A TOUCH AND BRINGING MORE SUBSIDENCE TO
NW LOWER TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK A LITTLE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED PERIODS
OF ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS FAR NW CHIPPEWA COUNTY.
THIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE THE BETTER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY FROM
LUCE/ALGER COUNTIES WORKING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WILL KEEP
THE ADVISORY ONGOING INTO MIDDAY...AND POSSIBLY LONGER DEPENDING ON
WHEN THESE BANDS ACTUALLY ARRIVE DUE TO THE BACKING WIND FIELDS.
EVENTUALLY...WINDS BACK ENOUGH OUT OF THE WEST...AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF WEST TONIGHT...TAKING ALL ACCUMULATING SNOWS OUT OF THIS AREA BY
EARLY EVENING. MORE STATUS QUO ACROSS NW LOWER...BUT FURTHER
LOWERING INVERSIONS INTO TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO MORE OF JUST FLURRIES
BY LATE TONIGHT. WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LESS INLAND EXTENT FOR SNOW/CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP A CLOUDY SKY
FOR MOST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...AS
SHALLOW MOISTURE GETS SQUASHED UNDERNEATH THE LOWERING INVERSION.

OVERALL...ANOTHER 2-4" SHOULD BE FAIRLY ATTAINABLE ACROSS FAR NW
CHIPPEWA COUNTY TODAY...WITH AROUND AN INCH AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH TO HIGH
LIQUID-SNOW RATIOS/FLUFFY SNOW...ABLE TO PILE UP A BIT BETTER THAN
THESE AMOUNTS THOUGH.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER HALF OF THE 20S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...TO THE THE
SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE...MAYBE EVEN SOME LOW LYING AREAS DOWN INTO
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 502 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

A SLOWLY DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. REINFORCING SHOTS OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN FLOW INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO BOUTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SHIFTING WINDS AND
VARYING AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE DUE TO WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...WILL LEAD TO DAILY FORECAST
CHALLENGES OVER THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND THE RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS.

SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE A SHORT LIVED BREAK IN THE ACTION SUNDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AS
THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHEAST AND WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN. THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW THAT BREAKS OUT ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES BY THE END
OF THE DAY FROM A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST (SEE BELOW).
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL HEAD
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WHICH WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW ENHANCEMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER LIKELY ADDING TO TOTALS. MORE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THEN KICK IN BY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEARLY STEADY
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO AROUND 20. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT LIKELY FALLING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DROPS INTO THE REGION
LEADING TO MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS
TO BE A LIMITATION FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE MIDDLE TEENS.

TUESDAY...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH LEADING TO A
PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW (ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES)...THOUGH LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
AREAS. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO AROUND 20.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE IS
SHOWN TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS WELL AS THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE WEEK (AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE -22 TO -24 C). THIS MAY SET
THE STAGE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND MORE WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT
EVENT FOR WEST NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AREAS. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS AT
BEST.

THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SHOULD CONTINUE...AT LEAST IN A LIGHTER
CAPACITY...AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT
MOISTURE BEGINS TO WANE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S.

FRIDAY...PERHAPS SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH
THE GENERAL THEME IS EXPECTED TO BE INCREASING RIDGING ALONG WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

LAKE CLOUDS WILL MOSTLY VFR/HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 502 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT FOR
MANY OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...DUE TO GOOD OVERLAKE INSTABILITY
AND TIGHT ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT. A BRIEF RETURN TO LIGHTER
WINDS DEVELOPS SUNDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT FEATURE WILL USHER IN ANOTHER SURGE OF
STRONGER WINDS...COLD AIR AND RENEWED HEADLINES TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...AJS
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...AJS
MARINE...SMD