Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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318
FXUS63 KAPX 240141
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
941 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Cirrus is expanding into northern MI this evening. At low levels,
cool/dry ne flow continues. Lake Huron is contributing to some
stratocu south of APN. Lingering cu/stratocu in southern areas
briefly expanded a bit before sunset, but has diminished
considerably in the last 90 minutes. Most of this is now south of
M-55.

Upstream precip in northern MN/far nw WI will struggle to make
eastward progress, thanks to an amplified (and amplifying) 500mb
ridge axis west of Lake MI. However, associated cloud cover will
thicken in western (and especially sw-ern) sections overnight.

Temps have lowered into the 50s in most places, with some upper
40s already in far northern lower/eastern upper. Further temp
falls will be held back by cloud cover and the BL nearing
saturation. But a few downward adjustments have been made,
especially in the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Surface high pressure over northern Ontario late this afternoon
will slowly drop southeastward toward the eastern Great Lakes next
24 hours driven by reasonably high amplitude upper flow. This high
will provide E to NE low level flow and drying, with pleasant
early fall weather anticipated both tonight and Saturday.

Low cloudiness late this afternoon will continue to slowly erode
from north to south - just as they have the past several hours.
Clouds behaved about as expected today, with synoptic drying over
northern Lower MI offset by diurnal processes and moisture
contributions from Lake Huron. Expect mostly clear skies tonight
for east Upper and much of northern Lower MI. Low clouds will be
a bit more stubborn south of M-55 corridor but here, too, clearing
will eventually occur this evening. Cooler air will continue to
filter into the area tonight, with 850 mb temps dropping to near
+4C across northern Lake Huron after midnight. This is expected to
generate some added lake cloudiness from Rogers City down toward
Saginaw Bay, but they shouldn`t be too widespread with neutral to
weakly anti-cyclonic boundary layer flow. Lows tonight will range
from the low to mid 40s inland to near 50 along the coasts.

Models suggest mid-high clouds currently over MN and western WI
may traverse mid level ridge axis over western Great Lakes and
reach NW Lower MI after midnight, and linger into Saturday. This
will result in partly to mostly sunny skies Saturday, with a bit
more cloudiness over western areas. Highs mainly in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Saturday night through Monday:

...A slight chance of thunderstorms late Sunday night...

Ridging at the surface and aloft remains in control through Saturday
night. A low pressure system currently across the Southern Rockies
then tracks northeast into south central Canada Sunday into Monday.
This will lead to increasing clouds and increasing southeast winds
Sunday with chances for showers by late in the day across far
western counties. Showers are then expected Sunday night with a
slight chance for thunderstorms (just a couple hundred j/kg of
mixed layer cape). The associated cold front then sweeps across
the region early Monday with wrap around showers possible through
the day. Light winds and mostly clear skies early Saturday night
should promote good radiational cooling conditions. Therefore,
have lowered mins into the 40s to lower 50s with a few colder
spots across far eastern counties possibly bottoming out in the
upper 30s. Mild Sunday and Sunday night with highs ranging from
the middle 60s to lower 70s and lows in the middle 50s to lower
60s. Highs Monday in the middle and upper 60s, which likely will
occur early in the day as cold advection kicks in behind the
departing cold front.

Monday night through Friday:

A front attendant to low pressure passing through James Bay is
expected to be east of the area Monday night, along with heavier
showers. The surface low is coincident with a strong upper low,
which will bring a brief drop in temperatures mid-week, before
warming up to near 70 again for the weekend. The cold air aloft
could also bring some lake enhanced cloudiness and showers into mid-
week, before the ridging returns and clears things out going into
the weekend. Despite the drop in temperatures mid-week, they will
still be near to slightly above normal for this time of year, with
the weekend warming to nearly 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 727 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

VFR.

High pressure is nosing into MI from far northern Ontario.
Cooler and drier air continues to enter the region from the
northeast ahead of the high. Low clouds are tending to diminish
with time, and that trend should continue. Can`t rule out a touch
of stratocu at times tonight, especially at MBL/APN/TVC. Cirrus
will be increasing tonight into Saturday.

A northeast to east breeze will continue.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Mariners can expect NE to E winds tonight and Saturday. Pressure
gradient is a bit more lax late this afternoon than earlier
anticipated, and with winds and waves remaining just below Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) thresholds have expired SCA across nearshore
waters of NE Lower MI just a bit early. That said, expect winds
to remain steady tonight (10-15 kts or so) as cooler air moves
into the region and over-water stability lowers resulting in
better mixing.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...BBS
LONG TERM...AJS/ALM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...BBS



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