Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KAPX 250934
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
434 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

ACCUMULATING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE REGION TODAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALL THE WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...WELCOME BACK WINTER...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

DEEP SFC LOW TRACKING NE THROUGH QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
COLD FRONT WITH SHARP CONVERGENCE EXTENDED BACK THROUGH NRN
MICHIGAN...YET SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH IS
JUST WEST OF US WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX...DEEP MOISTURE
AND DEFORMATION RIDING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
RESULTANT DEEP H8-H5 FORCING/-DIVQ HOWEVER IS HEADING NORTH OF
EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWS ACROSS
WISCONSIN ARE SLOW TO LIFT NE...BUT SNOW INTENSITY IS WANING. WE
ARE IN THE PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL...AS H8 TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN SUFFICIENTLY TO REALLY GET THE LAKES GOING. THIS IS SEEN
ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY WITH BANDED STRUCTURES EMBEDDED IN THE
SYSTEM SNOW. ROUGHLY 1-3" OF SNOW HAD FALLEN THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...FOCUSED PRIMARILY ALONG THE FRONT AND ALMOST ALL
SYNOPTIC. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN THE GREATEST LAKE EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT...AND SNOWFALL RATES HAVE REALLY KICKED IN. 1-2"/HR
SNOWS ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE NW/WNW FLOW REGIMES
OF NRN LOWER (ANTRIM TO OTSEGO COUNTY). A MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...LEAVES MUCH LESS
SNOW...ALMOST ALL BY SYNOPTICS (OUTSIDE OF FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CHIP/MACK). THE SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS ALL BUT LEFT THE COUNTIES NEAR
SAGINAW BAY...AND ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS ALPENA COUNTY.
WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY THERE...ALTHOUGH WET ROADS COULD ICE UP
SOME BY DAYBREAK FOR A SLIPPERY COMMUTE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SFC LOW KEEPS ON TRUCKING NE WITH THE SFC FRONT SAGGING SE
THROUGH THE CWA. WE LOSE THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE
FRONT...AND THE DEFORMATION/DEEP MOISTURE/CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE
THROUGH THE DAY. FOR THE MORNING HOWEVER...WE DO HAVE ALL OF THESE
MECHANISMS STILL IN PLAY WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 6KFT...AND
THE LOW LEVEL 1000-850MB WIND FLOW IS FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS NRN LOWER
WITH SOME BACKING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DEEP DGZ MAY NOT PROVE
TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT IN THE FLUFF FACTOR/POTENTIAL HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...AS THE MAX OMEGA ISN`T CO-LOCATED THERE. WINDS BACK
EVERYWHERE BY LATE DAY...INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 4KFT...AND
THE SNOW REALLY WINDS DOWN...AND GETS SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NW
LOWER...MAINLY NORTH OF M-32....AND ACROSS MAINLY CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN
EASTERN UPPER. CAN SEE AROUND 3 INCHES THIS MORNING IN THE IN AND
AROUND AN AXIS THAT RUNS THROUGH CHARLEVOIX AND OTSEGO COUNTIES WITH
MOST ALL FLOW REGIMES SEEING A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAYBE AN INCH IS POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY DUE TO
FROM ADDED FETCH AND CONVERGENT WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THERE.

TONIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK...OUT OF THE SSW AND TO AROUND
10KTS IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER...WITH ONLY LAKE EFFECTS IN PLAY.
WINDS STILL HAVE MORE OF A WSW FLAVOR TO THEM...PASTING SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES TO FAR NW LOWER...CENTERED AROUND EMMET/CHARLEVOIX
COUNTIES. THOSE LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
SNEAK OUT OVER THE LAKE THOUGH...AND A MESOVORTEX IS POSSIBLE...BUT
MACKINAC COUNTY/STRAITS AND FAR NW LOWER ALL IN THE ZONE FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS...AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS DROP EVEN FURTHER WITH SOME MINOR WARM ADVECTION AT H8 TO
WHERE WE MAY NOT EVEN BE ABLE TO INTRODUCE ICE CRYSTALS. NOBODY OVER
AN INCH IS THE EXPECTATION.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS TO AS MILD AS THE LOW TO MID 20S IN LAKE EFFECT/CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPPER TROUGHING WILL KEEP COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...MILDER AIR WILL LIKELY TEMPORARILY DISLODGE THE
COLD AIR SATURDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FEATURE SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC
AIR ALONG WITH BOUTS OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THE
MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...NOT A LOT TO HANG YOUR HAT ON WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGED AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WHILE COLD AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF VERY LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
THE COLD AIRMASS COULD LEAD TO MESOSCALE VORTICE FORMATION ACROSS
ANY OF THE THREE BIG LAKES (WHICH MAY MOVE SLOWLY INLAND).

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION
(WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED
AREAS) AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW VEERS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO LAKE EFFECT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT....STRONG WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS AS MILDER AIR OVERRUNS ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE INCREASES WHILE THE FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY LEADING TO CONVERGENT FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC
COUNTY WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BEEFY BAND OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT SNOW (ESPECIALLY NORTH) APPEARS
LIKELY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DECREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AS THE
MILDER AIR APPEARS TO TEMPORARILY WIN OUT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
SPILL BACK INTO THE REGION RENEWING NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY...THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40 SATURDAY
THEN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S...EXCEPT THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THRU
MUCH OF TUESDAY AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS AND DEEP WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW REMAIN
OVERHEAD. INCREASING OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SOME W/NW
FLOW LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO SNOWFALL INTENSITY FOR THE TYPICAL
SNOWBELT REGIONS OF NW AND N CENTRAL LWR MICHIGAN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 219 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

GALES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS AND HAVE
CANCELLED THE WARNING. STILL GONNA GET SOME ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
THROUGH TODAY...AS WELL AS PERIODICALLY ACROSS MOST ALL OTHER
NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL HAVE AN ADVISORY UP EVERYWHERE TODAY.
WINDS DO WEAKEN HEADING THROUGH THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
TONIGHT.

THEN...A LIGHT...AND AT TIMES VARIABLE WIND...IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORIES FOR MOST NEARSHORES
INTO THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ008-
     015>023-025>029-031>034.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...SMD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.