572
FXUS63 KAPX 301450
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1050 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower chances late tonight/Wednesday morning.

- Drier and breezier Wednesday pm, with potential fire wx
  concerns.

- Rain returns late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Forecast is on track. Mostly cloudy skies across all of the
forecast area through this afternoon. Slight chance of a shower
or two across eastern upper. Highs in the 50s to low 60s.
Westerly winds at 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Synopsis/pattern: Occluded 1007mb surface low is near MQT, with
a triple point low near GLR. This system will weaken as it moves
ne. High pressure briefly noses in from the se late today, up
until another upstream low heads toward Lk Superior tonight.

Forecast: A few showers are present in ne lower MI, and in
parts of upper MI. These will move out of ne lower over the next
few hours, but will linger longer in eastern upper MI. Cloud
cover is abundant upstream in WI and upper MI; perhaps places
near/south of M-72 will be partly sunny at times this morning,
but for the most part mostly cloudy skies prevail. A convergence
zone will up over the east half of upper MI today, with chilly
Lk Superior pushing this boundary slowly southward with time.
Though surface heating will be limited, there still may be
just enough instability to crank up a few showers this afternoon
in eastern upper MI. Small pops have been added up that way. Max
temps from the lower 50s north to mid 60s southeast.

Tonight, warm advection wing of better mid-level theta-e
advection develops quickly eastward into northern MI. The
evening/early overnight look dry, but models have been more
aggressive in allowing to develop overnight, ahead of the
incoming elongated low pressure. Have expanded pops late
overnight across most of northern MI. QPF looks mainly light,
0.10" or less, highest near Lake MI in both peninsulas. Lows mid
30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Oddly elongated upper low/short wave will be skirting the far
northern portions of our county warning area early on Wednesday. Low
pressure system/associated weak frontal boundary will move through
the area as well midday. Just enough forcing will result in rain
showers with generally light accumulations. Energy embedded within
southwest flow in addition to warm moist advection due to lifting
warm front will contribute to an increase in rain chances Thursday
and Thursday night. Cold front associated with a potent wave across
the N Plains and Upper Midwest will move into the region on Friday
with continued showers possible along that boundary. Another quick
hitting disturbance this weekend will produce the chance for more
minor showery activity.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Rain showers expected early on Wednesday due to a passing
disturbance aloft, but quick clearing and drying expected by the
afternoon hours for most of the region (eastern upper may have some
lingering showers). PBL heights expected to increase near 5kft
across portions of the area (especially southeastern). Thus,
increasingly dry, and breezy conditions are expected across the
region during the afternoon hours. At this time, do not think it`ll
be a major fire wx concern unless conditions are drier and windier
than currently expected (and really might not be broad enough
spatially, who knows), but worth fine tuning in the next two fcst
cycles.

Warm moist advection (in addition to some embedded energy aloft)
will produce the opportunity for rain showers Thursday and Thursday
night across the area. Weak sfc front will move through on Friday
focusing additional shower development. Might be some low end,
meager instability thus there could be a few rumbles of thunder
during this time (instability values continue to be meager within
the ensemble envelope (GEFS, EPS, GEPS) as well with <10% probs for
500j/kg of CAPE), but progged soundings are really not all that
impressive. Ensembles suggest best chance for wetting rains (say
0.5" or so) will be across the western shores of northern lower into
eastern upper due to closer proximity to the lift and initial tongue
of moisture. Clearing can be expected later Friday, then mild
temperatures continuing into the weekend with the chance for a few
more rain showers due to a passing disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
IFR part this morning APN/CIU/PLN.

Weakening low pressure is departing across Superior. Low clouds
and fog will bring poor conditions early this morning
CIU/APN/PLN, before some improvement by late morning. Another
chance for showers arrives late tonight, along with increasing
clouds.

Westerly breezes.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJS
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...JZ