Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 231045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
645 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

High pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes region early
this morning. Strong subsidence combined with dry air thru the
column continues to result in clear skies across our entire CWA. Dry
low level airmass combined with clear skies and light/calm winds
have allowed temps to fall thru the 60s overnight.

As we head into today...expect a near carbon copy of yesterday as
high pressure and dry air remain overhead. Today will feature sunny
skies and very warm temps. Light wind regime will again allow for
lake breeze development this afternoon.

Mid/high clouds will begin to increase from west to east this
evening well in advance of low pressure developing over the Plains.
Latest short term models still show any chances of precip will hold
off until after 06z (at least). Sharp instability and 850 mb theta E
gradients reach our far western CWA around 09z. Wind fields will
still be rather weak thru late tonight...and overall instability
will be limited thru 12z. Will better define timing of chance POPs
into our CWA overnight...focusing on best chances after 09z. Any
storms that do develop late tonight will remain sub-severe...which
matches well with SPC`s Day 1 outlook for general thunder across our
western and central CWA.

Expect another very warm day across the Northwoods...with afternoon
highs ranging from the mid 80s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the
upper 80s and lower 90s across Northern Lower Michigan. Low temps
tonight will cool back into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

For Sunday thru Tuesday...

Main concern: Shower and thunderstorm potential Sunday and Sunday

Pattern/Expected Evolution: A low pressure system over the Canadian
Plains Sunday will trek eastward and reach James Bay by Monday
morning. The warm and somewhat humid airmass ahead of the
approaching cold front will give northern Michigan its first chance
at precipitation Sunday and then the associated cold frontal passage
Sunday night will bring the potential for some stronger storms to
impact the CWA. High pressure will build into the forecast area and
produce dry weather through the remainder of the period.

Models are already beginning to hint at an MCS forming over northern
Minnesota, splitting over northern Wisconsin, and then traversing
over western upper/Lake Superior and southern Lake Michigan before
dissipating. This scenario of course seems to play out for northern
Michigan quite a bit, lingering clouds and showers for the morning
and into the early afternoon hours, minimizing destabilization.
However, if we can manage to get some sun during the afternoon hours
and reach temperatures into the upper 80s and even the low 90s, we
may be able to realize MUCAPE and MLCAPE values in the 1250-1700
J/Kg range for the arrival of the cold front slated to arrive in
northern Michigan Sunday night, along with an accompanying weak mid-
level wave. With 0-6km bulk shear of 30-40 kts nearly parallel to
the aforementioned cold front, I would suspect a more linear form of
storm type with wind damage and heavy rain being the main threat.
Monday will see decreased cloudiness throughout the day behind the
departing cold front as high pressure and much drier air builds into
the region. This cold front will not tame the daytime temperatures
much, with highs still reaching into the low to mid 80s through
Tuesday and beyond. Lows will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Precipitation-free weather will last through Tuesday as high
pressure remains overhead.

For Wednesday through Friday...

Although the flow will remain zonal and fairly weak throughout the
extended period, there will be lingering low-level moisture with
dewpoints near 60 each day. Rain and thunderstorms are in the
forecast, but it will not be a wash out by any means at all. It has
more of a look of hit and miss pop-up showers/thunder during the
afternoon and evening hours. Partly cloudy skies with diurnally
driven precipitation each afternoon. Best chances appear to be over
northern lower...especially Thursday and Friday, as better moisture
sags southward ahead of a large area of high pressure building
towards the CWA from central Canada. Highs will be a bit
the upper 70s to low 80s, while lows will drop into the mid 50s to
near 60.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

VFR conditions will persist thru Sunday morning as high pressure
gradually slides east of Michigan. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms will begin to increase after 09Z...but the chances
are too small to include in the TAF for now. Light wind regime
will lend to lake breeze development this afternoon.


Issued at 315 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Sunday night as
high pressure pushes east of Michigan by tonight...making way for a
cold front to swing thru our state Sunday into Sunday night. No
precip is expected thru this evening. Chances of showers and storms
will increase from west to east beginning late tonight and
continuing thru Sunday night as the front moves thru.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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