673
FXUS63 KAPX 290543
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
143 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms possible Sunday morning, and again later Sunday
afternoon/evening.

- Multiple rounds of storms expected Sunday night through Monday
  with localized heavy rainfall being the primary threat.

- Dry weather expected Tuesday through the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Shortwave troughing will exit east as it pushes over the St.
Lawrence River this evening with an attendant surface cyclone
following suit as it works across Quebec into Sunday, gradually
weakening with time. Low-amplitude ridging that has built high
pressure into the region will slide overhead tonight. Upstream, a
subtle jet max looks to punch across the northern Great Lakes late
tonight into Sunday morning as a more broad shortwave digs into the
northern Great Plains.

Forecast Details:

Mostly sunny skies will close out the day today with rain-free
weather expected to persist across the area through most of tonight.
Well to our west, severe storms are expected to form across the
eastern Dakotas and Minnesota this evening, which will serve as the
focus for our next chances for rain and thunder. These storms will
trek towards the Great Lakes overnight, working through an
increasingly hostile environment characterized by weakening
instability and shear with time and eastward extent. Given
aforementioned weak shear/cloud-layer winds and plenty of distance
to cover overnight, remnant showers and isolated thunder may not
wash up across western parts of the area until after 12Z Sunday.
Current confidence is that at least some showers and thunder chances
will work into northern Michigan during the morning hours, but it
remains possible that activity doesn`t end up making it into the
area.

Focus then shifts to additional chances for showers and storms on
Sunday with the potential for redevelopment along remnant outflow
boundaries from the above-mentioned activity and along the lake
breeze pushing inland from Lake Huron. Both potential near-surface
forcing mechanisms place areas east of I-75 as the most likely to
see storms later in the day. That said, forecast soundings
displaying relatively dry/inverted-V low-level profiles may make it
difficult for additional storms to form later in the day.
Regardless, a few strong storms will be possible Sunday afternoon
and evening with MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg in place with the
primary hazards being locally heavy rain, small hail, and lightning.
Otherwise, much warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday as highs
climb well into the 80s and even low 90s. Lingering cloud cover
associated with aforementioned morning showers/storms may keep highs
in the 80s should it hang around into the afternoon, however. Cooler
highs in the 70s are anticipated for those across the Tip of the
Mitt and eastern U.P.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging over the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS will continue to
slide east as troughing digs across the Midwest, becoming
increasingly amplified as it works overhead Monday into Tuesday.
Expansive forcing aloft will result in broad surface pressure falls
from Hudson Bay down into the mid-Mississippi Valley early this
week. High pressure looks to build in through the middle of the week
with subsidence on the backside of aforementioned troughing as it
moves east. Troughing may work back over the region late this
upcoming week.

Forecast Details:

Multiple rounds of showers and storms are anticipated across
northern Michigan Sunday night through Monday. Lingering convection
may be ongoing Sunday evening as a round of showers and storms looks
to move into northern Michigan later Sunday evening/Sunday night
after initiating along the front west of Lake Michigan earlier in
the day. As discussed well by the previous forecaster, a few strong
storms cannot be ruled out given ample elevated buoyancy, but
current thought is that severe potential is limited Sunday night
with relatively weak deep-layer shear and modest lapse rates aloft.

Better chances for strong storms may come on Monday as steeper lapse
rates work overhead, increasing instability during the morning into
the afternoon ahead of the advancing front. While deep-layer shear
remains on the weaker side for severe storms (~30 kts), more robust
convection appears to be possible on Monday vs Sunday night. Perhaps
the biggest threat late this weekend into early next week will be
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding. PWAT values
are expected to increase into the 1.5" to 1.8" range during this
time, which would approach climatological max values for late June.
With multiple rounds of storms expected, heavy rainfall across parts
of northern Michigan will be possible. Some localized areas are
particularly susceptible due to recent heavy rain -- mainly the Tip
of the Mitt. Flash flood guidance centers around 1.25" to 1.75" for
both 3HR and 6HR totals for many small basins there, which is
certainly attainable with efficient rainfall from any stronger,
persistent convection.

Looking ahead, rain/storm chances will taper off Monday night into
Tuesday, leading to a stretch of dry weather across the area through
the middle of the week. Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s are in
store for most of the period, which would be slightly warmer than
average highs for the time of year. Rain chances look to move back
in at the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

VFR conditions expected the rest of overnight with just some
passing high and mid level clouds. A few showers and perhaps
thunderstorms are possible on Sunday, especially across
northeast lower. Still, looking at predominately VFR
conditions...with perhaps just a brief period of MVFR producing
cigs/visibilities within any heavier showers. No wind concerns
through the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...JLD