Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 270357
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1157 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016


.AVIATION...

Increasing nocturnal stability will restrict the potential for
additional convective development overnight.  With that said, a very
low probability will linger through the overnight hours.  The influx
of higher low level moisture will introduce the possibility for some
shallow fog and/or low stratus development during the early morning
period.  Largely favor MVFR conditions at this stage, but possible
IFR particularly at MBS/FNT aided by the earlier rainfall.  There
will again be at least a low probability for thunderstorm
development late Friday.

FOR DTW...There remains little evidence per recent radar and
satellite trends to suggest showers/thunderstorms will impact the
airspace overnight. This will leave a clear sky across the lowest
5000 ft into tonight. Some form of low stratus and/or fog
development possible during the early morning period, before mixing
into a low VFR stratocu by late morning.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Low for ceiling 5000 FT or less prior to 09z, then moderate
  Friday morning.

* Low for thunderstorms affecting DTW/D21 airspace through Friday
  evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 926 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

UPDATE...

Large scale subsidence trailing the earlier and rather
benign shortwave passage largely inhibiting convective
development this evening, despite the insistance from some hi res
guidance. The exception extends from the Tri-Cities into the
northern thumb, where a low level trough/convergence axis
emanating from a wave to the north continues to focus pockets of
showers and brief/isolated thunder. Perpetuation of this activity
likely for another hour or two, before increasing nocturnal
stability wins out. The steady reduction in the gradient
overnight, combined with the elevated near surface moisture
content /and ongoing rainfall across the north/ may allow for
some areas of fog during the early morning period.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

DISCUSSION...
Forecast area will continue to remain in a warm and humid air mass
into the weekend. Most locations today are in the low to mid 80s
with dew points in the lower 60s.  This is producing cape values 1-
1.5k joules. Convection today so far has been suppressed by
subsidence from mid level ridging and lack of any surface
convergence.  Some showers/tstorms have developed in the Thumb
region from lake breeze convergence but these have struggled to do
much.  Weak mid level trough is currently over western lower
Michigan.  Some activity has developed in the past hour or so in
this region aided by lake breeze convergence.  The ridge currently
over head will slide east while weak trough to west moves through
this evening. This will help provide an increase in shower or
thunderstorm development this evening though expect coverage to
remain scattered as the area will also be under the negative
influence of some right exit region subsidence from jet max over
Wisconsin.  The rest of the night will remain quiet overall with
weak mid level ridging moving back in.  Will still carry a small chc
for a shower or storm as atmosphere will remain unstable and any
meso boundary or disturbance could trigger some activity.

Overall conditions will remain the same Friday through Saturday
night as area will continue to ly between ridging along the east
coast and troughing in the Midwest.  Convection will depend on any
meso boundary or disturbance in the southwesterly flow.  Best
chances for shower or storm activity will be afternoon and evening
with heating of the day.  Highs will generally be in the mid 80s and
low mid 60s with the typical cooler daytime highs near the lake
shorelines.

Rain chances will hang around into Sunday as low pressure moves
northeast over the northern Great Lakes region.  As this low pushes
northeast away from the area, ridging will begin to build in from
the west giving the area a break from precip from Memorial Day
through the middle of the week.  There still remains the slight
chance for some scattered showers on Memorial Day, however most
areas should remain dry.  Models are then advertising another low
pressure system moving east across the northern Great Lakes at the
end of the extended period as troughing looks to take hold once
again across the area.

MARINE...

Several weak surface troughs across the region will sustain a chance
of evening thunderstorms. The overall weak sfc gradient across the
region will maintain relatively light winds through Friday.
Thunderstorm chances will increase again Friday afternoon with
another influx of moisture and instability. A couple of low pressure
systems will track across the western Great Lakes and upper
Mississippi Valley this weekend. These will sustain light south
winds through the weekend while also providing a chance for
thunderstorms.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......MR
DISCUSSION...DRC/SS
MARINE.......SC


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