Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 281859
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
259 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will settle across the Great Lakes tonight beneath a
building shortwave ridge aloft. Light northeast gradient off of Lake
Huron will result in a shallow inversion that will support inland
development/advection of fog and/or stratus late tonight.

Diurnal deepening of the boundary layer will mix out low cloud
during Monday morning. Very dry column within flat/confluent upper
level flow aloft will support mostly clear skies on Monday and
mixing to perhaps 850mb where temperatures will reside in the mid
teens around the northern periphery of the expansive mid-level high
parked over the eastern 2/3 of the US. Highs will hover just above
average values for the date in the low 80s.

Little change in the local environment through Tuesday. SE Michigan
will still reside safely east of the instability corridor that will
be drawn north over the Northern and Western Great Lakes in response
to height falls associated with a weak cyclone over northern
Ontario. Depression of heights locally will allow for slightly
deeper mixing than observed on Monday, so inherited high temps in
the mid 80s still look good. Theta-e ridge will fold into the area
from the northwest on Tuesday night in advance of a weak cold front.
Nothing more than a chc pop warranted Tuesday night given weak
dynamic forcing and unfavorable nocturnal timing.

Surface cold front will move through the area on Tuesday and
Wednesday. A fairly moist airmass ahead of the front will allow for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over portions of
southeast Michigan. As the cold front passes through on Wednesday,
high pressure builds over the region with cooler/drier conditions to
follow. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 70`s
through Saturday with low to mid 80`s returning for Sunday/Monday.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure building into the central Great Lakes will bring
veering and weakening flow to region overnight into Monday.
Northwest winds will become northeasterly Monday morning and though
winds will be in the 10 to 15 knot range through most of the night,
they will quickly drop off in the morning to less than 10 knots.
Modest southwest winds expected on Tuesday ahead of a weak cold
front tracking through the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun AUG 28 2016

AVIATION...

The cloud field will scatter out through the afternoon hours with
the exception of the Detroit area taf sites where a weak boundary is
exciting a line of thunderstorms. With most of the activity expected
to stay south and east of the terminals, will include VCTS for a few
hours. After that skies will clear but winds will turn northerly
into the evening which will bring additional moisture in off Lake
Huron. This moisture, under a building inversion, will lead to some
visibility restrictions tonight into Monday morning, and likely some
stratus between 600-1200ft.

For DTW...main concern will be with potential for VSBY and CIG
restrictions tonight into Monday morning. Line of thunderstorms
should stay south and east of the terminal this afternoon.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Medium for ceiling aob 5000 feet this afternoon and again later
  tonight.

* Low for ceiling/visibility below 200 ft or 1/2 sm late tonight.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JVC/DE
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....DRK


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.



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