000
FXUS63 KDTX 101958
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO WORK THROUGH
FAR EASTERN MICHIGAN AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.
COLDER POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED STEEP FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO
DEVELOP IN THE LOWER-LEVELS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN PER LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SPC MESO ANALYSIS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE AGGREGATE WORKED
ACROSS. THERE WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN
AND WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME CENTERED
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DROP MIN TEMPS TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
THUMB TO NEAR 60 IN THE URBAN DETROIT AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IDEAL AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WARM AIR WASHING IN ALOFT WILL
PRESERVE A HIGH AMOUNT OF STABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN
RIDGE BUBBLE PER 1000-850 LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERLAP ALL OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THROUGH 15-18Z...EASING ITS GRIP ONLY SLIGHTLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. VERY ACTIVE SUBSIDENCE PROGGED TO LOWER
DOWN TO AROUND 850MB WILL SQUASH BOUNDARY LAYER GROWTH AND MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP ANYTHING CLOSE TO THE AMOUNT OF CUMULUS
WITNESSED TODAY. FAVOR WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN
MANY LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JET IS FORECASTED TO PUSH STRAIGHT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE REMNANT RIDGING
EASTWARD. OVERALL...IT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SETUP TO ALLOW VERY
STRONG WARM AIR AND HIGHER THETA E ADVECTION FOR THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE QUESTION IS...HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE TO SATURATE THE
LOW LEVELS. RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN PAINTING SOME LIGHT
QPF...FALLING OUT OF A SATURATED/STEEPER LAPSE RATE LAYER THAT IS
ABOVE 10 KFT. THE FEELING IS...THAT SOME REMNANT CLOUD/STRATIFORM
WILL PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...SUSPECT THE WEAKENING AND GLACIATING ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
VIRGA RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING. PULLED BACK ON
POPS BEFORE 18Z. MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME LOOSELY FORMED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHAT IS PROBABLY A BETTER FEATURE TO KEY IN ON
IS THE RELEASE OF A NOCTURNAL JET CYCLE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SOMETIME
VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF
THE JET PUSH LOOKS GOOD FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT TO INVOKE SOME
LARGER SCALE WAVE IMPULSE. WENT FAIRLY LIGHT AGAIN WITH POPS IN THE
MID TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY...WILL GIVE IT SOME TIME BEFORE
INCREASING POPS. ARRIVAL OF THE WARM SECTOR...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE
LOW 80S ON SATURDAY DESPITE THE CLOUD THAT SHOULD BE AROUND EARLY IN
THE DAY.

A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FRONTS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE...AVERAGING
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

OUTSIDE OF SOME LOCAL EFFECTS DUE TO LIGHT SHOWERS IN AND NEAR LAKE
ST CLAIR THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...OTHERWISE WINDS LOOK TO BE STAYING LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 118 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

//DISCUSSION...

LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY HEALTHY CUMULUS
FIELD (4500-7000 FEET) THIS AFTERNOON FROM FNT EASTWARD...IN
ADDITION TO A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS...AND WOULD EXPECT
LITTLE IMPACT ANYHOW WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN OR JUST SPRINKLES.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. BKN CU DECK IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER
OUT IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING AS WE START TO LOSE HEATING AND AS
DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH BROKEN CEILINGS STAYING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....CB/DE
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....HLO


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