Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 261034
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
634 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016


.AVIATION...

WITH SHRAS/TSRAS GONE...ATTENTION TURNS TO VSBYS AND CIGS TODAY. A
PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS (AND CIGS) WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST AS COLD FRONT EASES SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS AND LEADS
TO BRIEF LOW LEVEL SATURATION WITHIN MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
AFTER RAINFALL LAST NIGHT. INCREASED MIXING AND GRADIENT FLOW WILL
LEAD TO STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN THE 15Z-17Z TIME FRAME...BUT WITH THE
COLD NNE FLOW...EXPECT AT LEAST BKN MVFR CIGS TO HOLD GIVEN MASSIVE
AREA OF STRATUS NOTED IN SURFACE OBS/11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT
WILL LIKELY BE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE TRULY DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO AREA FROM HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS ONTARIO.

FOR DTW...WINDS WILL BECOME NNE WITH COLD FROPA AT BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST. IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS MORNING AS CIGS MIX UP TO MVFR. NO REAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING...LOWER
  CONFIDENCE TONIGHT.

* LOW IN CIGS/VSBYS AOB 200 FEET OR 1/2SM 12Z-14Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE EXITED THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.  THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...THERE HAS BEEN AREAS
OF PATCHY FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LINGERING DRIZZLE AND OVERCAST SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO HANG TODAY WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY BEFORE
THE ACTIVITY ENDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AROUND 18Z OR SO.
NORTHEAST FLOW THEN KICKS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
BRINGING IN COOLER AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 2C TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH THEN
WORK IN OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW WITH SOME MODELS TAKING THE CENTER OF THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
MI/OH BORDER WHILE OTHERS ARE STAYING MORE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE AREA BRINGING QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.  MODELS THEN ARE ADVERTISING A COMPACT LOW PUSHING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON AS NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LEADS TO BUILDING WAVES. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS LOW EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING LOCALIZED GUSTS TO
NEAR GALE FORCE. HOWEVER...WILL FORGO A WARNING AS THE COVERAGE AND
TIME WINDOW FOR SUCH MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL BE SMALL.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PERSIST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ442-443.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-422-
     441.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...SS
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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