Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDTX 010740
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
340 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE LINGERING LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING.
THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NE FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD
ACCELERATE THE EROSION OF ANY LINGERING POST SUNRISE LOW CLOUDS BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...STREAMING NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION SLIDING NORTH OF LAKE HURON. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY...LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. THE SHALLOW COLD AIR ENTRENCHED IN THE
REGION AND A SUSTAINED E-NE FLOW OFF THE LAKES TODAY WILL LIMIT
AFTERNOON MIXING DEPTHS. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S /WITH COOLER READINGS NEAR LAKE HURON/.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS SRN MI TONIGHT. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR FULL DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME
QUITE WEAK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP CONSIDERABLY
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM SAGINAW BAY.
THE COLDEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL THUMB AND MIDLAND
COUNTY...WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. A LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MOIST SOIL
FROM THE RECENT RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA FROM THE ERN LAKE ERIE BASIN OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT
FCST MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS
OUT OF THE EASTERLY QUADRANT AND SUPPRESSED MIXING HEIGHTS AGAINST A
BACKGROUND OF A GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION. MEANWHILE, DEEP LAYER
SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT AN ABSENCE OF NOTEWORTHY DIURNAL CU COVERAGE
WHILE MID AND UPPER CLOUDS ARE DEFLECTED NORTH WITHIN THE PRIMARY
CORRIDOR OF BAROCLINIC WESTERLIES.

THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN PRIME TERRITORY FOR FULL
DAYTIME INSOLATION THROUGH MIDWEEK AND NICE DAYTIME WX TO BEGIN
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER. HIGHS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES OVER TODAY,
LIKELY APPROACHING 70 AT ALL LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF LAKE SHADOWED LOCATIONS WHICH WILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLY COOLER.
GRADIENT WIND AROUND HIGH PRESSURE WILL INHIBIT RADIATING POTENTIAL
ON TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE M59 CORRIDOR, BUT THE STRONG LAKE
AGGREGATE CONTRIBUTION INDICATED BY THE NAM WILL FAVOR AN INCREASED
LIKLIHOOD OF FULL DECOUPLING ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE LOWS SHOULD
EASILY FALL INTO THE MID 40S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SIMILAR WX
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH FURTHER AIRMAASS MODIFICATION SUPPORTING
LOW TO MID 70S, WARMEST OVER THE FAR WESTERN AREAS WHICH ARE
GENERALLY WARMER IN SE FLOW. TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL
INCREASE MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS
SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPS OF 75 TO 80.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THIS
FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY WILL SUSTAIN THE ONGOING GALES ACROSS SAGINAW
BAY FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HOURS.  THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME.  WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1157 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THE CLEARING TREND WILL BE TIED MORE
TO NE TO SW EROSION FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO THAN FROM A LINEAR NORTH
TO SOUTH MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUD MASS. CEILING WILL THEN CONTINUE
LIFTING INTO VFR WHILE BREAKING APART THROUGH THE DTW AREA BY MID
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD INTO VFR IN THE FORM OF MIXED HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WIND RETURNS FROM THE NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON
BUT GUSTS WILL HOLD UNDER 20 KNOTS. EVEN THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
OUT BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES GREATER CONTROL OVER
THE REGION.

FOR DTW... BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CEILING WILL LIFT FARTHER INTO VFR
DURING THE NIGHT AND THEN BREAK UP OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN SUNRISE
AND MID MORNING. THE ONLY CONCERN AFTER THAT WILL BE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FEET OR LESS DURING THE NIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LHZ421-
     422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.