Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 042025
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
325 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SETUP TODAY PROVED TO BE MORE SUCCESSFUL IN SNOW PRODUCTION THAN
HIRES GAVE IT CREDIT FOR. MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS COLD ENOUGH TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FROM THE SFC TO 700MB WHERE
TEMPS DIPPED TO AROUND -20C. ADD TO IT A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE OFF
LAKE MI ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE STANDARD NARROW
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS BETWEEN M59 AND I94 QUICKLY BLOSSOMED INTO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF SE MI. HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS
HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH VISIBILITIES QUICKLY BOUNCING
FROM 9SM DOWN TO 2SM AND BACK AGAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS THOUGH THE MAIN AREA WILL BECOME DISPLACED NORTHWARD
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. RECENT RADAR TRENDS ALREADY SHOW THIS OCCURRING WITH
REFLECTIVITY DECREASING OVER GRR`S AREA AND ACROSS THE OHIO BORDER.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS BY NIGHTFALL.

QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
DISPLACE THE REFORMING POLAR JET ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA KEEPING THE
NEXT SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD WILL PASS OVER LOWER MI EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BUT APPEARS TO BE UNEVENTFUL OVER SEMI. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY TO
OUR NORTH...AND A SMALL VORTICITY MAX BREAKING OFF THE MAIN SYSTEM
LOOKS TO DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WE ARE LEFT IN
A VOID WITH DEEP MID LEVEL DRY LAYER. WILL BE OVERCAST THOUGH DUE TO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH ITSELF. THE JET STRENGTHENS WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ROUNDS THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE. THE DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER MI WHICH WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY AS WELL.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
MID 20S.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S WILL TREND TO BELOW-NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
A DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. 12Z MODEL SUITE
ADVERTISES POTENTIAL FOR LONG PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW STALLS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL THEN CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE
FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN 15
KNOTS OR LESS. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
ONTARIO SHOULD PROMPT A STRONGER WIND RESPONSE ON SATURDAY. SPEEDS
LOOK TO BE STRONGEST OVER LAKE HURON...WHERE GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TURNING EAST ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1246 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

COMBINATION OF AN UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE AREA AND LAKE EFFECT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE...BETWEEN VFR (3-5KFT) AND
MVFR (AROUND 1500 FT) IN SNOW SHOWERS. SNOWFALL WILL VARY BETWEEN
FLURRIES AND QUICK BUSTS OF SNOW THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES DOWN
TO 1 MILE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD BRING A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 20-00Z. THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAISE CEILINGS MORE INTO SOLID VFR. STEEP LAPSE RATES...ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE...AND LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO FILL IN
AGAIN TOMORROW. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. WE MAY ALSO SEE
A FEW FLURRIES.

FOR DTW...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF AND RAISE CEILINGS TO A MORE SOLID VFR DECK.
UNTIL THEN...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR...WITH BRIEF DROPS TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 20-21Z. LATEST DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CEILINGS SCATTERING
OUT LATE THIS EVENING...AROUND 03Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH 21Z. LOW THIS EVENING
  AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRK/DT
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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