Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 042318
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
618 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015


.AVIATION...

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE USHERS IN A DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

FOR DTW...UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF CEILING HEIGHTS. BELIEVE
DTW STAYS VFR...BUT MAY STILL MAINTAIN A 5KFT CIG AT TIMES THIS
EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
USHERED IN VIA 140 TO 170KT JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO DEPICTED ON WV AND H5 HEIGHT PLOT CURRENTLY
OVER MN AND PIVOTING TOWARDS WI. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE JET ARE
COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF THE CWA...AND MOST AREAS ARE ALSO SEEING
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP STRATUS INTACT UNDER 4KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GATHERS STRENGTH...A CLEARING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT. H5 SHORTWAVE AND LOBE
OF PVA WILL SQUEEZE IN ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT
TOTALLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. OVERALL
A QUIET NIGHT WITH THE EXCITING WINTER WEATHER WELL SOUTH AND EAST
OF MI.

WIND FORECAST DOES CALL FOR 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER
WINDS AND BIT OF A CANOPY TONIGHT WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS...THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO. TAKING WINDS INTO
ACCOUNT...ALL AREAS WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH THE THUMB
AND SAGINAW VALLEY BRIEFLY TOUCHING -15. THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED
DISPERSION OF THESE LOWER VALUES PRECLUDES AN ADVISORY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...ALLOWING
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN SLIDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALLOWING FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S WITH H850 TEMPS AGAIN REACHING AROUND -20C. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE COUNTERED BY SOME SUN AND LONGER EARLY MARCH
DAYLIGHT HOWEVER...AND DID FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY (INCLUDING TODAY) WHERE
GUIDANCE WAS TOO LOW. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINS TO APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
BUT START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE MORNING (SEE BELOW). THIS MAY
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO AROUND -15F...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-69.

THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC ENERGY DIVING THROUGH HUDSON
BAY SENDS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY...WHILE A CORE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO TAP INTO THESE GUSTS...WE SHOULD SEE A BREEZY DAY
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 20S. LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN LOW DROPS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO LIFT INTO THE AREA.

A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW ON SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE 40S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...WITH GUSTS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TO REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...FOR FRIDAY.

CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5
DETROIT: 2 (1948)
FLINT: -10 (1948)
SAGINAW: -8 (1948)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 5 (COLDEST HIGH)
DETROIT: 16 (1890)
FLINT: 20 (1960)
SAGINAW: 17 (1920)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 6
DETROIT: 2 (1901)
FLINT: -7 (1960)
SAGINAW: -5 (1948)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-422-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....HLO/RK
MARINE.......HLO
CLIMATE......HLO
CLIMATE......KURIMSKI


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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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