Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 261947
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

STRATUS PREVAILS BENEATH A STOUT INVERSION FED BY ONGOING MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT DRY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE MAKING INROADS
DURING THE EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE THUMB FROM THE WATERS OF LAKE HURON AND WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH THROUGH SUNSET. RIDGE AMPLIFICATION IN
RESPONSE TO THE EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION WILL PROVIDE A CHOICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
WILL SUPPORT AN ABSENCE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD WHILE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEFLECT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. NO COMPLAINTS WITH 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGHS APPROACHING
60. GRADUAL ABSORPTION OF THE LOW INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING
THURSDAY WILL SHUNT RIDGING TO THE EAST. EXPECT, AT THE LEAST, A
HEALTHY COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. 12Z NWP STRONGLY SUPPORT
THE NOTION THAT FORCING WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE REMNANTS LIFTING SOUTH-TO-NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER HERE, BUT
ABUNDANT DRY AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 5KFT OFFER
PHYSICAL SUPPORT FOR ITS SOLUTION. THUS, POPS REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY THURS THROUGH THURS NIGHT IN SPITE OF THE
OTHERWISE STRONG NWP CONSENSUS. HIGH TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE 50S
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL SPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

AFTER A DRY PERIOD TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTING
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. THOUGH MOST WILL SEE AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS...LOCATIONS CLOSER TO OHIO COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ACCUMULATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO A LONGER
DURATION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 119 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

MVFR CIGS REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE EXITING
COLD FRONT. COOL FLOW OFF LAKE HURON IS NOT HELPING TO ERODE THE
CLOUD LAYER ANYTIME SOON AND ADDING TO THAT NOW IS A LAYER OF CIRRUS
DEBRIS FROM AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER IOWA. MINOR INCREASES IN CIGS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD WILL SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS BEGINNING
AROUND 00Z AT MBS AND REACHING DTW CLOSER TO 09Z. WEDNESDAY WILL
THEN BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EASTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

FOR DTW...EXPECT MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS MODELS ARE
COMING MORE IN LINE WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS NOW.
CIGS WILL REACH NEAR 2KFT BUT WILL THEN HOLD TIL THE DRIER AIR AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EAST ON WEDNESDAY.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING...LOWER
  CONFIDENCE TONIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......DRK
HYDROLOGY....
AVIATION.....DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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