Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 200729
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
329 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SURFACE RIDGING TUCKED BENEATH WEAKLY CONFLUENT WEST-NORTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SUSTAIN A DEEP LAYERED DRY/STABLE PROFILE THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD.  PROXIMITY OF UPPER JET DYNAMICS UPSTREAM WILL
MAINTAIN A STEADY STREAM OF THICKER HIGH CLOUD AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT OF THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME FILTER TO
AN OTHERWISE MORE FAVORABLE DIABATIC HEATING ENVIRONMENT.  THIS WILL
TEMPER SLIGHTLY A GENERAL MODERATION OF THE EXISTING COOLER AIR MASS
NOW IN PLACE.  HIGHS LARGELY ARRIVING IN THE VICINITY OF 60 DEGREES.

BRIEF INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FORCING /700-500 MB/ WILL SWEEP ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
FILAMENTS AND ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET FORCING PIVOT THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN/OHIO VALLEY.   MOISTURE QUALITY A LARGE LIMITING FACTOR IN
POTENTIAL SHOWER PRODUCTION...PARTICULARLY BELOW 700 MB GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY.  GREATER POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER...UNDER MORE FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE UPPER JET SUPPORT AND A CORRESPONDING MAXIMUM IN DEEPER
COLUMN FGEN.  DECREASING TREND TO THE EXISTING THICKER HIGH CLOUD
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW
FOR GREATER NOCTURNAL COOLING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS.  ASSUMING WEAK GRADIENT FLOW...THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLDEST
LOCALES TO AGAIN DIP INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

UPPER ENERGY WILL DROP FROM HUDSON BAY INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY...PUSHING A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT. THETA-E POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO BETWEEN 7-8 C/KM MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...AND DID ADD A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER
MICHIGAN FOR FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY...RETURNING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL ESPECIALLY FEEL CRISP WITH MINS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE 40S AND EVEN 30S.

SEVERAL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY WILL THEN EJECT OUT OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE VARIED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH THE STRENGTH OF EACH OF THESE PIECES AND WHEN THEY
ARRIVE. THIS LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS...SUCH AS
WHEN/WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK AND WHERE THE FRONTAL
FEATURES WILL BE LOCATED. HIGHER CONFIDENCE DOES EXIST THAT WE WILL
BE RETURNING TO A WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY THE SECOND HALF
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. POPS WERE LOWERED ON
SUNDAY AS GEM/EURO KEEP UPPER RIDGING INTACT OVER THE AREA AND
APPROACHING WAVE WELL UPSTREAM. CHANCE POPS WERE OTHERWISE
MAINTAINED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN LARGE WAVES OVER LAKE HURON
EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ALLOWS
WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A FRESH ROUND OF GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO LAKE HURON...HOWEVER THE WESTERLY COMPONENT LOOKS
JUST ENOUGH THIS TIME TO KEEP LARGER WAVES CONFINED TO THE OPEN
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING ON FRIDAY WILL YIELD A RETURN TO
LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1152 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE 4000-4500 FT STRATO CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INFLUENCE SE MI THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES BELOW 10K FT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ047-048-053.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ049-054-055-
     060>063.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ421-
     441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).


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