Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 281052
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
652 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

PASSING HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HELPED MITIGATE THE DENSE FOG THIS
MORNING...AND ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AT
LEAST MVFR FOG ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 300 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A NEAR CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY EXPECTED...WITH JUST SOME ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND...WHICH HAS ALSO HELPED LIMIT FOG COVERAGE
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
IOWA IS FINALLY GOING TO BE OPENING UP AND ON THE MOVE TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY. NONE-THE-LESS...925 MB TEMPS ADVERTISED AROUND 17 C
SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ONCE AGAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE JUST SLOWLY WEAKENS INTO
TONIGHT. BASED ON THE HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OUT TONIGHT...PREFERENCE
IS TOWARD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A NOTED TREND SHOWN IN BOTH THE NAM AND GFS TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE MON NIGHT/TUES SYSTEM ADDS A HIGHER LEVEL OF
CONFIDENCE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TOWARD
MORE AMPLIFICATION EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT EMERGES FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
COMPACT CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AS IT ROTATES INTO THE ERN
GREAT LAKES TUES MORNING. THE INCREASE IN DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND THE TIGHT LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE SFC FRONT
WILL LEAD TO SFC CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NRN GRT LKS ON MONDAY. THE
SFC LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE HURON MON NIGHT...
DRAGGING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS SE MI. THE PRE FRONTAL
AIRMASS OVER SRN MI WILL REMAIN MILD ON MONDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONT WILL ENHANCE SW FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN WILL BOOST AFTERNOON AFTERNOON MIXING DEPTHS AND PUSH
HIGH TEMPS TOWARD THE 80 DEG MARK. VERY GOOD MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THUMB/ AND GOOD CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
ALONG A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD
CHANCE /ALBEIT BRIEF/ OF SOME SHOWERS MON NIGHT.

POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GOOD AS
925MB TEMPS ARE NOW FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY TUES
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TRAPPED AT ITS BASE. THE EXTENT OF
POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS NOW BLANKETING MUCH OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL
CANADA ALONG WITH THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TUES AND TUES NIGHT
WILL BE VERY CLOUDY. TUES HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY FALL SHORT OF 60 DEG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDING AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY WED.
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE BEFORE THE APPROACH OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
TURNS THE FLOW TOWARD THE SOUTH AND ADVECTS A WARMER LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS INTO SE MI BY THURS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS LONGER WAVELENGTH TROUGH WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AND BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO SE MI BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND COOLER TEMPS BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE ERN US.

MARINE...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
TONIGHT SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND
TRACK ACROSS LAKE HURON MON NIGHT...SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......SC


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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).






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