Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000
FXUS63 KDTX 212304
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
704 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014


.AVIATION...

THE CLEARING WHICH HAS BEEN PUSHING ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY THIS
EVENING SHOULD SLOW ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS N-NE OVER LAKE HURON. A PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND ADDED MOISTURE SHOULD SUSTAIN CLOUDS WELL
INTO THE DAY WED. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE TOWARD THE NE
THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CLOUDS TO ADVANCE BACK INTO
MBS. ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE THUMB SUGGEST THE
HEAT FLUX OFF LAKE HURON IS LIFTING CLOUD BASES...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD HOLD INVERSION HEIGHTS LOW
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY MVFR BASED CLOUDS.

FOR DTW...GIVEN THE SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...CEILING HEIGHTS MAY FLUCTUATE ABOVE AND BELOW 3K FT INTO
THE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT AND MONDAY
  MORNING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 418 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....CB/DT
MARINE.......CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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