Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 270252
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1052 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...

PER SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS THIS EVENING...ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON AND SHIAWASSEE TIERS MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM EDT. THERE IS STILL QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL
TAKE CLOUD TO ERODE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A
PRONOUNCED LOW/MIDLEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE LOCKED IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FAVORABLE RADIATIVE COOLING SETUP...IT WON`T
TAKE LONG FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
LIVINGSTON/OAKLAND/MACOMB COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 729 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

A WELL ORGANIZED CONFLUENCE ZONE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z WED MORNING. SO DESPITE DRY
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOW SETTLING TROUGH THE SAGINAW BAY REGION DUE
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...LOSS OF MVFR CEILING HEIGHTS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT SOUTH OF I 69 THE LATTER
HALF OF THE NIGHT. LARGELY KEPT TO THE INHERITED TIMING IN THE
DISSIPATION OF CLOUDS. FEELING IS IT COULD BE A REAL STRUGGLE FOR
THE DETROIT TERMINALS WITH AT LEAST A SCT MENTION BELOW 5000 FT
THROUGH 13Z WEDNESDAY. A VERY DRY MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WED ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT EASTERLY.

FOR DTW...TWO ITEMS...CIGS BELOW 5000 FT AGL...EITHER SCT OR BKN
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO EASE BELOW 7 KNTS WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT...HIGH
  CONFIDENCE IN EVENTUAL SKC WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

DISCUSSION...

STRATUS PREVAILS BENEATH A STOUT INVERSION FED BY ONGOING MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT DRY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE MAKING INROADS
DURING THE EVENING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE THUMB FROM THE WATERS OF LAKE HURON AND WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH THROUGH SUNSET. RIDGE AMPLIFICATION IN
RESPONSE TO THE EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION WILL PROVIDE A CHOICE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
WILL SUPPORT AN ABSENCE OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD WHILE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEFLECT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. NO COMPLAINTS WITH 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGHS APPROACHING
60. GRADUAL ABSORPTION OF THE LOW INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING
THURSDAY WILL SHUNT RIDGING TO THE EAST. EXPECT, AT THE LEAST, A
HEALTHY COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. 12Z NWP STRONGLY SUPPORT
THE NOTION THAT FORCING WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE REMNANTS LIFTING SOUTH-TO-NORTH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER HERE, BUT
ABUNDANT DRY AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 5KFT OFFER
PHYSICAL SUPPORT FOR ITS SOLUTION. THUS, POPS REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY THURS THROUGH THURS NIGHT IN SPITE OF THE
OTHERWISE STRONG NWP CONSENSUS. HIGH TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE 50S
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS.

MARINE...

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL SPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MIDWEEK.

HYDROLOGY...

AFTER A DRY PERIOD TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTING
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. THOUGH MOST WILL SEE AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS...LOCATIONS CLOSER TO OHIO COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ACCUMULATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO A LONGER
DURATION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ060>063-068>070.

LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......DRK
HYDROLOGY....DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).


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