Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 221953
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
353 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Warm and humid southwest flow will be firmly established over lower
Michigan during late afternoon through tonight. Temperatures will
come down from highs near 90 and heat index in the mid 90s but it
will remain warm and muggy through the night. This will leave
convective trends as the main concern beginning with scattered late
day/early evening development followed by storms arriving from the
Midwest frontal system during the night into Friday morning. Passage
of the front through SE Michigan by early to mid Friday afternoon
will then bring cooler and less humid air into the region for the
weekend.

Afternoon satellite imagery and hourly mesoanalysis/surface
observations indicate warmer and more humid air moving in through
the boundary layer in southwest flow over the region. This is
occuring under a relative theta-e minimum that is a result of both
warmer air moving in aloft that is not quite as moist and possibly
some subsidence trailing morning convective activity. The warmer air
is at least temporarily capping off additional shower/storm
development through peak heating. There is also observational
evidence of deeper moisture moving in from the Ohio valley
associated with the northern fringe of TD Cindy. It is this moisture
surge that is shown to produce late afternoon/early evening
convection over northern OH/IN developing into lower Michigan during
the evening. This activity will occur ahead of the convection
upstream over the Midwest that is being forced along and ahead of
the cold front/outflow combination and which is expected to progress
eastward into SE Michigan during the night. Both rounds of storms
will share a similar near storm environment. Model derived ML CAPE
and shear projections best supported by observations are in the
range of 1000-1500 J/kg along with marginal bulk shear around 30
knots. This combination will be capable of some multicell structures
with otherwise moderate mid level wind speed that could produce some
near severe wind gusts in line with the borderline slight/marginal
SPC outlook that covers SE Michigan. Locally heavy rainfall will
likely turn out to be the main concern as PW ramps up to near 2
inches overnight. Individual convective cells will be moving quickly
enough but there will be a tendency for some training lines that
will have localized potential for flooding of prone areas.

Numerous to widespread showers/storms that spread into the region
overnight will tend to break up as they will be ahead of the surface
front and upper level wave toward Friday morning. As this convection
continues to dissipate during the morning, there will be another
narrow window of opportunity for new development along the cold
front before peak heating and before it boundary exits SE Michigan
during early to mid afternoon. Passage of the front will then open
the door on cooler and less humid air Friday night into Saturday.
Some weak instability showers will be possible Saturday afternoon
and evening but the large scale pattern does not look very
supportive. Neutral southwest flow aloft downstream of the main
upper trough and a featureless westerly low level flow might support
isolated to scattered coverage of light showers during peak heating.

The region will remain in longwave troughing to close out the
weekend and into the beginning of next week.  This will allow for
chances for unsettled weather through this time period before things
start to dry out by the middle of the week.  Longwave ridging starts
to build in on Tuesday as surface high pressure takes control over
the Great Lakes region.  As far as temperatures are concerned, highs
will be noticeably cooler on Sunday and Monday as highs hold around
70 degrees.  Temps then rebound back towards the upper 70s though
the end of the extended forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...

Warm and moist southerly flow this afternoon, but topping out around
20 knots for the most part. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
around late today and this evening, with more solid line of showers
and embedded thunderstorms later tonight with cold front, which will
pass through the Central Great Lakes tomorrow. Winds will shift to
the west-northwest behind the front and remain from that general
direction through the weekend with wind speeds under 20 knots. An
unseasonably cold airmass this weekend will bring the chance for
light showers across most of Lake Huron.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

An influx of moisture will trigger scattered showers and
thunderstorms late today and this evening, with more widespread
shower and thunder activity with cold front late tonight into early
tomorrow morning. All told, localized rainfall amounts may reach an
inch or more, especially from around Flint on north into the Saginaw
Valley, where storms expected to arrive earlier and are able to
utilize the waning daytime instability. Urban and small stream
flooding will be possible with the stronger activity.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

AVIATION...

A cold front will be slowly tracking through Lower Michigan Tonight
through Tomorrow morning, helping to focus showers and thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, low level moisture from remnants of Cindy will be drawn
into southeast Michigan, leading to increased confidence ceilings
will lower into MVFR category later tonight. With the instability
build up during the day, and as low level moisture is advected
northward, scattered thunderstorms are possible late today into this
evening, but felt activity would be mainly northwest of southern TAF
sites (DTW/DET/YIP). Higher chance toward 12z Friday with the actual
cold front.

For DTW...Warm front has lifted north, with good mixing this
afternoon allowing southwest winds to gust at or above 25 knots.
There is a low chance of thunderstorms very late today into this
evening, but left out of TAF as activity is expected to reside
mainly northwest. High confidence in cigs dropping below 5000 feet
Tonight, and likely dropping into MVFR with showers and possible
thunderstorms developing.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms impacting terminal through tomorrow morning.

* High confidence in ceilings aob 5kft tonight into Friday Morning.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT/SP
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SF
AVIATION.....SF


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