Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 021933
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
333 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

SHEAR MAX OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL DIG TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, CONTRIBUTING TO A SPLIT CHARACTER TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND LAKE ENHANCED HIGH PRESSURE WILL FAVOR IDEAL RADIATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS
THE PREDOMINANTLY AGRICULTURAL LANDS OF THE THUMB WHERE SOIL
MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. A 12Z MET/MAV BLEND
PAINTS A REASONABLE PICTURE OF MID 40S TO LOW 50S, WARMEST ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND IN THE CITY. WITH BAD AXE FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
THIS MORNING, WENT AHEAD AND TOOK A HEALTHY SWING AT LOWS IN THE
THUMB FOR TONIGHT...UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PRETTY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER TAKING US THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATE OVER
THE AREA. ON FRIDAY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES PROVIDING FOR CLEAR SKIES...BUT WITH THE DOMINATE BAROCLINIC
ZONE TO OUR SOUTH PREVENTING RETURN FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
LIMIT THE HEATING POTENTIAL FOR THE DAY BUT STEADY LOW/MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS WITH FULL JULY SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S.

ON SATURDAY...THE FOURTH OF JULY...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE SLIDING
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL DROP A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL RUN UP AGAINST THE SFC HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AS IT TRIES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. WITH
THE WAVE ITSELF PULLING QUICKLY EASTWARD...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
WASH OUT AS THE HIGH SLOWS ITS PROGRESS AND FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IN ADDITION
TO DECENT LL LAPSE RATES FROM THE SFC UP TO 600-700MB. WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT REACHING THE SAGINAW VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING
WITH THE NOTED INSTABILITY AND LIFT...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR ANY SHOWERS/TSTORMS THAT MAY POP UP.  EXPECT MORE OF A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS THAT REGION. LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF ABOUT I-69 SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL THERE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL THEN DECREASE ACROSS MID MI
AS INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL FORCING FADES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...WEAK FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. BUMPED UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM SUPERBLEND. 12Z
GFS/GEM/GEFS MEAN CONTINUE THE SLOWER/WEAKER TREND FOR THE COLD
FRONT PROGGED FOR TUE/WED...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE
PROGRESSIVE. LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER
TREND...BUT RETAINED CHANCE POPS TUE THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
PROVIDING FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT...STALLING AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THAT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD ON SUNDAY
BRINGING QUIETER WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1247 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN
CONTROL. DIRUNAL CU AROUND 4KFT IS EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT A TENDENCY
TOWARD SCATTERED COVERAGE AS MIXING INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME CALM TO VARIABLE TONIGHT UNDER
CLEAR SKIES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5KFT

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK/DT
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....JVC


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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).


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