Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 021657
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1257 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE AND ERODE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. HOWEVER...WITH THE LATE
DAY/EVENING CLEARING...AND MOIST SOILS...THINKING WE WILL SEE
LIGHT MVFR SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT (8-12Z) ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
AS WINDS GO CALM/NEARLY CALM. ANY FOG QUICKLY BURNING OFF UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE MORNING. SCT-BKN VFR CU DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR DTW...CLOUD HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR BY EARLY EVENING (19-
22Z) AND DISSIPATE DURING MID EVENING HOURS (02-05Z). WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH TOUCH OF LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CHANCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF 5000 FOOT CEILINGS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIG AOB 5K FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LOWERING
  CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
  PERIOD OF 5000 FOOT CEILINGS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 304 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

DISCUSSION...

MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S WAVE WILL BE OF
INSUFFICIENT DEPTH TO SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE EXISTING MOISTURE IN THE
LOWEST 5KFT. AS A RESULT, WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON, REINFORCED BY NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE SOUTH OF I-69 WHERE BETTER MOISTURE QUALITY
EXISTS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MID TO UPPER 50S EXCEPT LOW 60S
MAY IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY WHERE CLEARING IS FORECAST BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTN. IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN WAVE TAKING SHAPE ON THE CYCLONIC
SIDE OF THE MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED JET OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS MODELED
TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. INITIAL
IMPACT WILL BE A NOTABLY WARMER DAY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WSW GRADIENT AND A CONSIDERABLY
DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER NEARLY FULL EARLY MAY INSOLATION. MIXING
DEPTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AN AFTERNOON CU UP AND AREAWIDE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S GIVEN PROGGED LCL AT 4500 FT. DEEP TROPOSPHERIC
FRONT AND CONVERGENT/LINEAR FORCING WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS. SUSPECT
THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE NARROW LEADING TO A SHORT 3 TO 4 HOUR
DURATION FOR ANY ONE LOCATION. HOWEVER, STEEP LAPSE RATES DIRECTLY
BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT CARRYING LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY. CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TRAILING
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND A BIT OF A TROWAL STRUCTURE WRAP THROUGH.

MARINE...

DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY AS THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS.  A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL EXIST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH ALL
WATERWAYS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.  STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
LAKE HURON...WHERE A PERIOD OF WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY.

HYDROLOGY...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY LIFT TO THE
EAST...LEAVING SOME RESIDUAL PONDING ON AREA ROADWAYS THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE.  A PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN EXIST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE ONE QUARTER INCH RANGE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......MR
HYDROLOGY....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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