Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 052043
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
343 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN IMPRESSIVE ENDORSEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE
OVER SE MICHIGAN TODAY IS THAT NEARLY FULL EARLY MARCH AFTERNOON SUN
IS STRUGGLING TO LIFT TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE TEENS. A FEW MORE
SPOTS IN THE DETROIT AREA TO THE OHIO BORDER COULD SURGE INTO THE
LOWER 20S BEFORE PEAK HEATING RUNS OUT...BUT MAX TEMPS ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN WILL END UP A SOLID 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES
THAT ARE AROUND 40 FOR MARCH 5TH.

THE TRI CITIES WILL BE THE ONLY AREA WITH ANY CLOUD COVER BY SUNSET
AS A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT IS INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE REGION. THE EVENING CLEARING TREND AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ABOUT DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW THE WIND
TO DIMINISH AND GET TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT AS MOST LOCATIONS REACH
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...ESPECIALLY IN THE THUMB WHERE
AFTERNOON READINGS BARELY MADE IT INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
BESIDE THE DETROIT METRO AREA...THE TRI CITIES HAS THE BEST CHANCE
TO STAY ABOVE ZERO WITH THE HELP OF CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING AND
THEN FIRST TO SEE INCREASED SOUTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL
INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW DEGREES OF UPWARD TEMPERATURE
RESPONSE BY SUNRISE BUT AT THE EXPENSE OF WIND CHILL. EXPECT THE
COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE RISE AND INCREASED WIND SPEED TO CROSS
OVER A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AND PRODUCE WIND CHILL MOSTLY AROUND
10 BELOW ZERO. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE THUMB COULD TOUCH THE ADVISORY
THRESHOLD OF 15 BELOW BUT THIS IS AT THE BOTTOM END OF THE RANGE AND
EXPECTED TO BE TOO BRIEF TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.

THE RELATIVELY WARM RECORD LOW FOR TONIGHT AT DTW IS IN REACH. THE
FLINT RECORD IS AT THE VERY BOTTOM END OF THE RANGE...AND MBS WILL
BE COMFORTABLY ABOVE THE RECORD. THEY ARE FOR MARCH 6:

DTW  2/1901
FNT -7/1960
MBS -8/1948

&&

.LONG TERM...

SOLID WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. STRONG UPPER WAVE TRACKING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW WILL PROBABLY TEMPER OUR
WARMUP...AS HIGHER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE PREVALENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STILL...WITH 12Z EURO ADVERTISING 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND -10 C...SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S APPEAR
ATTAINABLE. ENOUGH WARMING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO
PREVENT LAKE MICHIGAN CONTRIBUTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND
PLANNING ON CALLING FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE
FANFARE (LOW CHANCE POPS). WITH ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...AND
MILD START (MID/UPPER TEENS) ON SATURDAY...SHOULD CLIMB SOLIDLY INTO
THE 30S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCATIONS TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER
REACHING 40+ DEGREES AS 925 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE NEAR ZERO. TOUGH
CALL ON MINS SATURDAY NIGHT AS BAROCLINIC ZONE HANGS UP OVER SOUTHER
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE AND SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN EXACT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL DETERMINE IF WE FALL
INTO TEENS WITH THE DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE VS HOLDING IN THE 20S
WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS. ERRED ON THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY SIDE FOR
NOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WHILE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY BETWEEN MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS /30 PERCENT/
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...BEYOND SUNDAY WEATHER CONDITIONS
REMAIN QUIET AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND
REMAINS IN PLACE THOUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE BY MID-WEEK. THIS WAA WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT SWINGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW WILL PRODUCE A
STRONG SOUTHWEST GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. ICE
COVER OVER MAJORITY OF LAKE HURON WILL CERTAINLY HELP LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL...BUT THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS VERY COLD...AND ENOUGH
MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON TO
SUPPORT MARGINAL GALES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DURATION ALSO REMAINS
A QUESTION MARK...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE GALE WATCH DUE TO THE
MARGINAL NATURE AND UNCERTAINTY STILL IN PLAY. WEAKENING PRESSURE
FIELD FRIDAY NIGHT AND WARM ADVECTION PATTERN LEADING TO MORE STABLE
PROFILES CAUSING A DROP OFF IN WINDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR SECOND HALF WITH A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE ARRIVING.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1240 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE PLAINS
OVER THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
IT WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS WHILE SLIDING TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY TROUBLE SPOT
IN THE FORECAST WILL BE WITH HOW MUCH STRATOCU CAN MAKE IT OVER FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. MBS HAS
THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL COVERAGE OF BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
CEILING FROM ABOUT EARLY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ALL
TERMINALS WILL THEN BE IMPACTED BY INCREASED WIND SPEED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS GUSTS PUSH TOWARD 25 KNOTS UNDER THICKENING HIGH
CLOUDS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ362-
     363-421-441-462.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF/RK
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).


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