Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 020736
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
336 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE SHORT TERM...NORTH OF A QUASI STATIONARY UPPER LOW
MEANDERING ACROSS KY/TN. THIS WILL SUSTAIN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MI. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND CNTL/NRN LOWER MI TODAY...SUSTAINING A LIGHT E-
NE WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FLOW HAS PICKED UP SOME MOISTURE
OFF SRN ONTARIO AND HAS RESULTED IN SOME PERIODIC LOW CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO SOME PERIODIC CU WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE
DEGREE OF DRY AIR INTRUSION INTO THE AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER SHOULD
KEEP ANY PERIOD OF ENHANCED CU FIELD TO A MINIMUM...THUS OFFERING A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TODAY. AFTER RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNING
READINGS...TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY TODAY UNDER EARLY JUNE INSOLATION.
MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MIXING
HEIGHTS RELATIVELY LOW. SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS FROM
YESTERDAY...ADDING A FEW DEGREES TO THE 925MB TEMPS...WILL SUPPORT
DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 70 /WITH COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKES/.
LINGERING SFC RIDGING WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGHER DAYTIME TEMPS AND A LITTLE BETTER
EASTERLY GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED
TO THIS MORNINGS READINGS /LOW 50S IN URBAN DETROIT AND 40S
ELSEWHERE/.

&&

.LONG TERM...

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN QUASIZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL FORCE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, WHICH HAS EXTENDED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES, OFF THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY LOSING ITS GRIP FROM THE TOP DOWN AS FLOW
BECOMES SUBTLEY CYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AT THE
SURFACE, LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE FIELD WILL DELAY THE
EXIT OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ENSURE ANOTHER NICE WX DAY FOR WEDNESDAY.
MIXING TO 850MB WITHIN A DRY COLUMN WILL ENSURE FULL INSOLATION
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S.
BY AFTERNOON, VEERING MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE COMPACT CIRCULATION OVER TENNESSEE WILL ADVECT SOME ELEVATED
MOISTURE INTO INTO LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASING HIGH BASED CU FIELD BY LATE AFTN. LACK
OF DEPTH TO MOISTURE ELIMINATE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS FOR WED.

PATTERN MORE OR LESS PERSISTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER STAGNANT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
TENNESSEE UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COLUMN MOISTURE INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY AID A MORE ROBUST DIURNAL CU FIELD BY AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED H7-H5 LAPSE RATES SHOWN BY THE NCEP SUITE WILL
TILT THE THERMODYNAMIC FIELD JUST SLIGHTLY IN FAVOR OF AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, MOST LIKELY WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF INLAND
TROUGHING, BUT THE POTENTIAL ATTM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WORTH A WX
MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WILL FORCE HIGH
PRESSURE BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
DEPEND ON TIMING OF LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES. MODELED QPF
LOOKING A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE ON FRIDAY GIVEN POOR ENVIRONMENT AND ILL-
DEFINED FORCING. BLENDED GRID 30 POP IS FINE.

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LONE EXCEPTION IS LAKE ERIE WHERE
ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL SUPPORT
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF WEDNESDAY BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1157 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER LAKE HURON
DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE RESULTING NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL DIRECT POCKETS OF STRATUS INTO THE DTW REGION FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. EXPECT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FRAGMENTED ENOUGH FOR
PREVAILING SCATTERED CONDITIONS WITH A BRIEF CEILING AROUND 3500 FT
BEFORE SUNRISE. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL SHIELDED FROM SATELLITE
VIEW BY CIRROSTRATUS...BUT BOTH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND INCOMING
MODEL DATA SUPPORT AT LEAST POCKETS OF COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING.
MOISTURE IN THIS LAYER MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP INTO A
SCATTERED/SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD DURING THE DAY. THE WIND WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CEILING 5000 FEET OR LESS DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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